Entering Monday’s semifinal, no team has been as dominant as Japan at this year’s World Baseball Classic.
It holds a perfect 5-0 record, outscoring its opponents 47-11 while holding a tournament-best ERA (1.80) and OPS (.996).
Japan earned its spot in the semifinals with a 9-3 quarter-final win over Italy, which saw Shohei Ohtani start on the bump and Munetaka Murakami have his best game yet, hitting two doubles and scoring three runs.
But after pulling off an upset on Friday, Mexico is ready to play spoiler again in its first-ever WBC semifinal appearance.
Mexico advanced to Monday’s showdown after a comeback win over Pool D winners Puerto Rico that was sparked by five scoreless relief innings and a run-saving catch by Randy Arozarena that he later described as: “better than any home run I’ve ever hit in the big leagues.”
After upsetting the USA and winning Pool C, Mexico rides into the semis on a four-game win streak behind some dominant pitching — its 3.33 ERA ranks third in the tournament — and a group of MLB-caliber hitters.
With a trip to the final on the line, the pitching matchup may be the story of the game, with both teams sending notable names to the hill in Miami.
Pitching Matchup
If you haven’t heard of Roki Sasaki yet, Monday’s game will be a great time to learn about the 21-year-old phenom.
Playing for the Chiba Lotte Marines in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball organization in 2022, Sasaki struck out 173 hitters in just 129.1 innings, finishing with a 2.02 ERA for the season. He also had a streak of 17 perfect innings across two starts last year.
In this World Baseball Classic, he started Japan’s game against the Czech Republic, allowing one unearned run over 3.2 innings while striking out eight.
On the other side of the field, Mexico is sending Los Angeles Angels starter Patrick Sandoval out to take on the Japan lineup and his MLB teammate Ohtani.
Sandoval impressed in the tournament’s opening round, holding the powerful U.S. lineup to just one run over three innings, setting the stage for Mexico’s 11-5 win.
One of the more underrated pitchers in MLB, the southpaw posted a 2.96 ERA in 148.2 innings with the Angels last season.
Mexico will also be able to call upon either José Urquidy or Taijuan Walker in long relief, should it need to, before passing the game off to its bullpen, which includes tournament standouts Javier Assad, Jake Sanchez and Giovanny Gallegos.
Potential Lineups
Japan
CF Lars Nootbaar
RF Kensuke Kondoh
DH Shohei Ohtani
LF Masataka Yoshida
3B Munetaka Murakami
1B Kazuma Okamoto
2B Shugo Maki
SS Sosuke Genda
C Takuya Kai
Mexico
LF Randy Arozarena
RF Alex Verdugo
1B Joey Meneses
DH Rowdy Tellez
3B Isaac Parades
2B Luis Urías
SS Alan Trejo
CF Alek Thomas
C Austin Barnes
Key Players to Watch
Japan’s roster is littered with intriguing stories heading into Monday’s game. How will young phenoms like Sasaki and Murakami handle what is essentially an MLB opponent? Can Ohtani win the battle with Angels teammate Sandoval? There is so much to pay attention to in this semifinal.
One player to keep an eye on that may not be generating as many headlines is Kazuma Okamoto. Japan is very left-handed, especially toward the top of its lineup and Okamoto is the first right-handed hitter to come up. He is also coming off an outstanding quarter-final, where he went 2-for-2 with a home run and five RBI, reaching base an additional two times via the walk.
For Mexico, Arozarena has been the story of the tournament. The Tampa Bay Rays star has slashed .417/.625/.941 through his team’s first five games.
After establishing himself as a big-game performer in the 2020 postseason, Arozarena has lived up to that reputation again in this World Baseball Classic, winning the Pool C MVP.
He has consistently come up big for Mexico in the tournament and if it wants to move on, Arozarena will have to continue his success against the undefeated Japanese team.
What’s Next?
The winner of Monday’s semifinal will move on to face the U.S. for the World Baseball Classic title.
The Americans rolled their way to the final with a 14-2 blowout of Cuba as they look for a repeat of their 2017 championship.
Since arriving in Miami, the US offence looks to have woken up, scoring a combined 23 runs across the first two playoff rounds.
Trea Turner has been leading the way with three home runs in those two games, including a game-shifting grand slam against Venezuela.
The U.S. has announced that Arizona Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly will get the start against whoever emerges from the Mexico, Japan showdown.
