There has already been plenty for football fans to be grateful for this U.S. Thanksgiving week, since it began with not one but three Thursday games plus a bonus contest Friday afternoon.
All four early-week games were divisional matchups with the Packers kicking off the week with an upset over the Lions and Cowboys defensive back DaRon Bland had the play of the day with his NFL record-setting fifth interception return for a touchdown of the season.
The Sunday slate features six additional divisional matchups before a Monday nighter between Justin Fields’ Chicago Bears and Josh Dobbs’ Minnesota Vikings that caps off the week.
Also, Buffalo embarks on its most difficult stretch of the season with a road game at Philadelphia this week in a compelling matchup. It’s the first of the Bills’’’ mini gauntlet as they face the Eagles, Chiefs and Cowboys back-to-back-to-back.
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SPREADS & TOTALS
– NO (-1.5) at ATL (+1.5) | O/U: 41.5 (1:00 p.m. ET)
– PIT (-1.5) at CIN (+1.5) | O/U: 35.5 (1:00 p.m. ET)
– CAR (+3.5) at TEN (-3.5) | O/U: 36.5 (1:00 p.m. ET)
– TB (+2.5) at IND (-2.5) | O/U: 44.5 (1:00 p.m. ET)
– NE (-3.5) at NYG (+3.5) | O/U: 34.0 (1:00 p.m. ET)
– JAX (-1.5) at HOU (+1.5) | O/U: 47.5 (1:00 p.m. ET)
– CLE (+1.5) at DEN (-1.5) | O/U: 36.5 (4:05 p.m. ET)
– LAR (-2.5) at ARI (+2.5) | O/U: 45.5 (4:05 p.m. ET)
– KC (-8.5) at LV (+8.5) | O/U: 43.5 (4:25 p.m. ET)
– BUF (+3.0) at PHI (-3.0) | O/U: 48.5 (4:25 p.m. ET)
– BAL (-3.0) at LAC (+3.0) | O/U: 48.5 (8:20 p.m. ET)
– CHI (+3.0) at MIN (-3.0) | O/U: 43.5 (8:15 p.m. ET*Monday)
We’ve pointed out multiple times this year the fact that, much like last season, unders are cashing at roughly a 60 per cent rate overall. Week 12, however, began with a Thanksgiving triple-header where each game went over its listed total. Will that set the standard for the weekend slate?
The “this screams under” matchup of the week is Chiefs (8-2 on unders) at Raiders (9-2 on unders), while the “somethings gotta give against the spread (ATS)” game to watch is Saints (2-7-1 ATS) at Falcons (2-8 ATS).
PROP WATCH: PICKETT, STEELERS CAN’T BLAME CANADA
Pittsburgh fired their offensive coordinator, Matt Canada, earlier this week following a 13-10 loss to AFC North rival Cleveland. The 6-4 Steelers are the only team at least two games above .500 with a negative point differential and this is meant to spark a scoring bump. The defence has held up their end of the bargain most weeks, while Kenny Pickett and the offence have meandered.
Pickett has only thrown two touchdowns in a game one time in his 22-game NFL career and has never thrown three in the same game. Some of that can be attributed to questionable play-calling, but that’s not to let Pickett off the hook. He has missed big throws and, more frustratingly, he occasionally will not see one of his WRs that has broken free of coverage. Does that change starting this week? Will Pickett be given more chances to test his arm and utilize skilled receivers George Pickens and Diontae Johnson differently than they have so far in 2023…like, starting to target the middle of the field more frequently? Quarterbacks coach Mike Sullivan is taking over play-calling duties on an interim basis for a Steelers team visiting a Joe Burrow-less Cincinnati team.
Pickett passing yards: Over 195.5 (-110) | Under 195.5 (-110)
Pickett passing attempts: Over 29.5 (-110) | Under 29.5 (-120)
Pickett passing TDs: Over 0.5 (-270) | Under 0.5 (+215)
Pickett interceptions: Over 0.5 (-110) | Under 0.5 (-120)
Pickett longest pass attempt: Over 33.5 (-115) | Under 33.5 (-115)
Pickett rushing yards: Over 9.5 (-110) | Under 9.5 (-110)
Pickett anytime touchdown +600
Steelers running back Jaylen Warren has been Pittsburgh’s most dangerous player on offence lately and is riding high off back-to-back outings with more than 100 rushing yards and a touchdown. Despite that success, he was still getting out-carried by his backfield partner Najee Harris. Could we see Warren’s volume increase in this new offence?
Warren rushing yards: Over 47.5 (-120) | Under 47.5 (+100)
Warren receiving yards: Over 18.5 (-110) | Under 18.5 (-110)
Warren receptions: Over 3.5 (-135) | Under 1.5 (+105)
Warren anytime touchdown +162 | two or more TDs +250
WEEK 12 STORYLINES TO FOLLOW
How will Kansas City solve its butterfingers woes?
The Chiefs are currently 7-3 and situated nicely in the competitive AFC playoff race, not to mention Patrick Mahomes is again among the top handful of MVP candidates. Andy Reid’s team, though, is dealing with a collective case of the dropsies. The team leads the league in dropped passes, which has contributed to three consecutive scoreless second-half outings from the defending Super Bowl champs.
Mahomes is 9-1 in his career against the Raiders, but don’t forget he was previously undefeated versus Denver and that streak ended in a 24-9 loss to the Broncos in late October. Las Vegas is 2-1 under interim coach Antonio Pierce as they begin a three-game homestand. Kansas City is the biggest favourite on the weekend slate by several points.
What do we make of the Broncos?
Denver is riding a four-game winning streak, tied with Philadelphia for the longest active streak in the NFL, yet one of those wins was gifted to them by the Bills and another happened after the sputtering offence went about 59 minutes unable to score a touchdown. They’ve got a lot going for them, including Russell Wilson having a quietly solid year, but they often struggle moving the ball and have the third-worst point differential in the AFC. Sure, much of that is due to their 50-point Week 3 loss to Miami, but it’s still not great. Now they face an elite Browns defence that recently took a hit with veteran safety Rodney McLeod placed on IR with a biceps injury. How Wilson, Denver head coach Sean Payton and OC Joe Lombardi scheme around Myles Garrett and company could end up being the difference in this fascinating AFC matchup.
Will NFC South leader be at or above .500?
The NFC South has established itself as the worst division in football this season with the four teams a combined 14-26 entering Week 12. The Saints visit the Falcons in a matchup chock full of playoff implications. If Atlanta wins the two teams will be tied at 5-6. Tampa Bay can also move to 5-6 with a road win over Indianapolis, while Carolina aims to pick up their second win of the season when they visit the Titans. On the other hand, if the Saints win they’ll have a nice cushion in the standings.
Derek Carr sustained head and shoulder injuries in a Week 10 loss to the Vikings but has cleared concussion protocol and is set to start for New Orleans. This means Jameis Winston will go back to being the No. 2 option. The Saints also have at their disposal utility man Taysom Hill as a tight end/running back/quarterback hybrid.
On the Atlanta sideline, Desmond Ridder is back under centre as Falcons starter for the first time since Week 8 when Taylor Heinicke replaced him after Ridder continued having trouble holding onto the ball with untimely turnovers on a near-weekly basis.
Can DeVito do it again?
Bill Belichick typically thrives against rookie QBs but we can’t underestimate Tommy DeVito of the New York Giants after he helped upset the Commanders in Week 11. The undrafted rookie could only throw for 86 yards and was sacked five times in his first career NFL start, a Week 10 blowout loss to the Cowboys. Some football fans found that to be rather funny but tread lightly when laughing at someone named Tommy DeVito.
Unconfirmed reports suggest the 25-year-old QB responded to his doubters by asking: “What do you mean, the way I play? Funny how? What’s funny about it? Funny how? I mean, funny like I’m a clown, I amuse you? I make you laugh? I’m here to amuse you? What do you mean funny? Funny how? How am I funny?” … but I digress.
DeVito threw for 246 yards and three touchdowns, leaned heavily on Saquon Barkley and the Giants snapped a three-game losing streak. New York’s third-stringer was thrust into the spotlight after Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor went out with injuries. Can continue his feel-good story with another strong performance? DeVito has been sacked 22 times in four appearances, including nine times in his win over Washington, so who knows what looks Belichick and the New England defence might give the Giants on Sunday?
(Betting odds above via Covers, player prop odds via Bet365 as of Friday and subject to change)
