It’s been a long, difficult, and emotional week in the NFL as the entire football world has awaited updates on the condition of Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin.
Hamlin collapsed on the field during Monday night’s game in Cincinnati due to cardiac arrest, and after being administered life-saving CPR by medical professionals onsite was rushed to the hospital in critical condition. Incredibly, just four days later, the team announced Hamlin is awake and communicating, and was able to speak with teammates via Zoom on Friday.
With that news, we begin to tread back into football conversations, but we keep Hamlin and his family and teammates front-of-mind as we do. Week 18 will be emotional, with so many tributes to Hamlin planned around the league and so many of his teammates, peers and coaches still also recovering from the trauma they all witnessed take place on the field less than a week ago. Compassion will be required at every turn.
But there is a season to finish, and playoff spots still to be clinched. Seeding to be determined. Let’s take a look.
In the NFC, we have yet to crown a champion in the East, where the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys both have a shot at the title, while the No. 1 seed is now a three-team race between Philadelphia, Dallas, and the San Francisco 49ers. The stakes are high, considering the winner gets a week off and home-field advantage through the playoffs.
Just one playoff spot remains in the NFC, with three .500 clubs – Seattle, Green Bay, and Detroit – battling it out for the seventh and final ticket to the post-season. That one will come down to the very last game, a Sunday Night showdown between the Packers and Lions.
Things are a lot more complicated atop the AFC. The NFL’s decision not to resume the Week 17 meeting of Cincinnati and Buffalo, while it was no doubt the right call in terms of players’ safety and well-being, presents a unique challenge when it comes to determining the top three seeds in the conference as well as home field advantage.
As a result of the cancelled game, and based on some select outcomes amongst this weekend’s games involving the Chiefs, Bills, Bengals, and Ravens, we could see some playoff games take place at neutral sites or, in one case, based on the result of a coin flip. The cancellation meant the Bengals clinched the AFC North based on win percentage, but it also ruled out Cincinnati from a shot at vying for the AFC’s top seed.
Here are the three scenarios, as approved by the NFL’s competition committee earlier on Friday, that would lead to an AFC Championship game being played at a neutral site:
i) If Buffalo and Kansas City both win or both tie their respective Week 18 games, an AFC Championship game between Buffalo and Kansas City would be played at a neutral site.
ii) If Buffalo and Kansas City both lose AND Baltimore wins or ties, an AFC Championship game between Buffalo and Kansas City would be played at a neutral site.
iii) If Buffalo and Kansas City both lose AND Cincinnati wins, an AFC Championship game between Buffalo or Cincinnati and Kansas City would be played at a neutral site.
Additionally, there is also a scenario in which the site of a wild-card matchup between Baltimore and Cincinnati would be determined by a coin flip. If Baltimore defeats Cincinnati this Sunday (thus sweeping their divisional foe this season) and if the two line up as wild card opponents (Bengals in 3rd seed, Ravens in sixth), then a coin flip would determine which club gets home-field advantage. The seeding, however, would remain the same.
Yes, it’s all pretty confusing. But we’ll get through this together. Now, let’s dig into the games and further break down all the playoff scenarios in this 18th and final week of the 2022 NFL season.
If the playoffs started today, here’s what the seeding and matchups would look like in the AFC:
No. 1 Chiefs (13-3) on bye
No. 2 Bills vs. No. 7 Patriots (8-8)
No. 3 Bengals vs. No. 6 Ravens (10-6)
No. 4 Jaguars (8-8) vs. No. 5 Chargers (10-6)
If the playoffs started today, here’s what the seeding and matchups would look like in the NFC:
No. 1 Eagles (13-3) on bye
No. 2 49ers (12-4) vs. No. 7 Seahawks (8-8)
No. 3 Vikings (12-4) vs. No. 6 Giants (9-6-1)
No. 4 Buccaneers (8-8) vs. No. 5 Cowboys (12-4)
WEEK 18 STORYLINES AND CLINCHING SCENARIOS
Chiefs 31, Raiders 13
With the win over the Raiders, the Chiefs officially locked up the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC. This win secures them a bye to the divisional round, as well as a home game in that same round.
The Chiefs will have to wait and see the outcome of the Bills vs. Patriots game before they are guaranteed home field advatage throughout the playoffs.
(For more information about the possibility of a neutral-site AFC Championship, should the Chiefs be involved, please see the breakdown outlined above in the first section of this article.)
Jaguars 20, Titans 16
Jacksonville officially clinched the AFC South division title on Saturday with a win over the Titans, clinching the No. 4 seed in the AFC.
With the loss, the Titans’ season is officially over.
Browns (7-9) @ Steelers (8-8) | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
With three straight wins, the Steelers have climbed back to .500 on the season and clung to life in the playoff race. A fourth consecutive victory would see head coach Mike Tomlin’s incredible streak without a losing season remain intact and extended to 16 years.
A win over Cleveland AND a loss for both the Dolphins and Patriots puts the Steelers in the post-season.
Ravens (10-6) @ Bengals (11-4) | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
The Bengals, no longer eligible to claim the top spot in the conference, were awarded the AFC North title based on win percentage in the wake of the cancellation of Week 17’s Bills-Bengals matchup.
The best Cincinnati can do is a second-seed finish. They cannot drop lower than the third seed. Cincinnati will clinch the AFC’s second seed with a win over Baltimore AND a Bills loss to the Patriots.
The Ravens can clinch the AFC’s fifth seed with a win over Cincinnati AND a Chargers loss to the Broncos. Should the Ravens win on Sunday and still finish in their current position of the sixth seed based on a Chargers win, the divisional foes will face off on wild card weekend. Despite the Bengals being awarded the division title, the site of that game would be determined by a coin flip.
Vikings (12-4) @ Bears (3-13) | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Minnesota’s Week 2 loss to Philadelphia rules them out from a shot at the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The only movement the Vikings could see is a jump into the second seed with a win and a 49ers loss. The Bears, meanwhile, still have a chance at the top spot – in the 2023 draft, that is.
If Chicago, who’s currently in line for the second overall pick, loses to Minnesota and the Texans win over the Colts, the Bears will be on the clock thanks to what would be their 10th straight loss.
Patriots (8-8) @ Bills (12-3) | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
All thoughts during this Bills game will be on No. 3, Damar Hamlin, after a week of prayers and hopes for good health as he recovers after suffering cardiac arrest Monday night. It’s hard to put football first at a time like this, but with Hamlin now awake and communicating and able to speak with teammates Friday, the Bills are preparing to take to the field once again with their teammate in their hearts. This will, no doubt, be an incredibly emotional game.
As far as the standings go, there are some significant playoff scenarios at play in Buffalo this weekend. The Bills can clinch the top seed in the AFC with a win over the Patriots AND a Chiefs loss. Buffalo will fall to the third seed with a loss to New England AND a Bengals win.
The Patriots, meanwhile, can clinch the final wild card spot in the AFC with an unlikely win over Buffalo.
If New England loses, they can still get into the playoffs with a loss for both the Dolphins and Steelers and a win for Jacksonville (thus meaning the Jaguars would clinch the playoffs via the division title, and not the seventh seed).
Jets (7-9) @ Dolphins (8-8) | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Miami will be playoff-bound with a victory over the Jets on Sunday AND a Patriots loss to the Bills.
The bigger story, though, is the health of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. The starter was once again placed in concussion protocol after Week 16’s game, and has been ruled out from returning for Sunday’s season finale. Even if rookie Skylar Thompson can lead the Dolphins into the playoffs, it’s unclear whether Tagovailoa is expected to be healthy enough to return.
Buccaneers (8-8) @ Falcons (6-10) | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Tampa Bay is locked into the fourth seed as (reluctant) NFC South champs. The only task on Sunday will be to stay healthy.
Panthers (6-10) @ Saints (7-9) | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
This is one of the few games without a clinching scenario in sight. Change the channel.
Texans (2-13-1) @ Colts (4-11-1) | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
The leaders to land the first overall pick in the 2023 draft are one loss away from making it official.
The focus in Indianapolis moving forward beyond this Sunday will be on Saturday – as in, how will the Jeff Saturday experiment end?
Cardinals (4-12) @ 49ers (12-4) | Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
The 49ers can open the playoffs as the No. 1 seed with a victory over Arizona AND an Eagles loss to the Giants.
Cowboys (12-4) @ Commanders (7-8-1) | Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
With the NFC East and the NFC’s top seed still up for grabs, the Cowboys can make a huge jump on Sunday in terms of seeding. Dallas can clinch the division title with a win over Washington AND an Eagles loss to the Giants. They can clinch the division title AND claim the top seed in the entire conference with a win over Washington, an Eagles loss to the Giants, AND a 49ers loss or tie against the Cardinals.
Rams (5-11) @ Seahawks (8-8) | Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
Between their red-hot start and their second-half struggles, 2022 has felt like a tale of two seasons for Seattle. The Seahawks are in playoff position heading into Week 18 but in order to remain there they’ll need a little help.
Seattle can clinch a playoff berth with a win over the Rams on Sunday followed by a Packers loss or tie against Detroit on Sunday Night Football.
Giants (9-6-1) @ Eagles (13-3) | Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
The Eagles, the first team to clinch a playoff spot this season, have had a clear shot at the division title and No. 1 seed for a few weeks now but haven’t been able to seal the deal. They can lock up the NFC East with a win over the Giants OR a Cowboys loss to Washington.
They can lock up the top seed with a win over the Giants OR with a loss or tie for either the Cowboys or 49ers.
A failure to clinch either would see them drop all the way from the first to the fifth seed.
Chargers (10-6) @ Broncos (4-12) | Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
Sunday’s early-window matchup between the Ravens and Bengals could determine L.A.’s seeding before Justin Herbert & Co. even set foot onto the field. A Ravens loss to the Bengals means the Chargers are locked into the fifth seed, and based on Saturday night’s outcome between the Jaguars and Titans will already know their opponent.
If the Ravens defeat the Bengals, however, the Chargers must beat the Broncos in order to resecure that fifth seed – the difference between playing the AFC South champs and the Bengals.
Lions (8-8) @ Packers (8-8) | Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET
Talk about a dramatic season finale! Riding a four-game win streak into Week 18, the once-written-off Green Bay Packers have put themselves in position to claim the final wild card spot with a fifth straight victory.
Of the three 8-8 teams vying for the seventh seed (Detroit, Green Bay, Seattle), the Packers have the clearest path.
Green Bay can clinch a playoff spot with a win over Detroit.
In order for the Lions to clinch, they must defeat the Packers AND the Seahawks must lose to the Rams.
Let the games begin!
