The quote of the week in the NFL might have to go to New York Giants defensive co-ordinator Rodney Dangerfield Wink Martindale who, when asked how he’s preparing to face a dynamic Dolphins offence looking to get back in the win column, had this to say:
“My wife called me last night before she went to bed. She said she was worried about me. She said, ‘Are you getting any sleep?’ I said, ‘Yeah, I’m sleeping like a baby. Every two hours I wake up and cry and go to the bathroom and try to go back and get some more sleep.’”
Cue the rimshot!
Martindale was jovial this week when speaking with media ahead of his team’s matchup in Miami. His defence has allowed at least 24 points in every game so far this season, so a little levity is understandable when trying to alleviate pressure in the face of a daunting task like defending a Dolphins team averaging more than 500 yards of offence and 37 points per game.
“I told our staff because we’re all old enough to remember The Greatest Show on Turf, this is like that, 2023, supersonic,” Martindale added. “I mean, they are fast, faster than that. … It’s not even turf there. It’s grass, and they’re still faster.”
On paper, there are at least a couple matchups that have blowout potential this week – Giants at Dolphins is chief among them – but as we’ve already seen plenty of in 2023, pre-game narratives can quickly fall flat once the teams are lined up over the ball.
The most recent example of this was Week 5 beginning with a Thursday upset as D.J. Moore’s electric outing helped Chicago to a 40-20 win over Washington. (D.J. Moore’s Electric Outing sounds like something you could dance to, no? Never mind.) Justin Fields had his second consecutive outing throwing four touchdown passes with three of them going to Moore who finished with eight catches for 230 yards and those three scores.
This week also marks the beginning of bye weeks with the Browns, Chargers, Seahawks and Buccaneers each off, resulting in a lighter and more balance Sunday slate than we’ve seen the past couple weeks.
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SPREADS & TOTALS
– JAX (+5.5) at BUF (-5.5) | O/U: 48.5 (9:30 a.m. ET in London, England)
– HOU (+1.5) at ATL (-1.5) | O/U: 41.5 (1:00 p.m. ET)
– CAR (+9.5) at DET (-9.5) | O/U: 44.0 (1:00 p.m. ET)
– TEN (-2.5) at IND (+2.5) | O/U: 43.5 (1:00 p.m. ET)
– NYG (+12.5) at MIA (-12.5) | O/U: 47.5 (1:00 p.m. ET)
– NO (+1.0) at NE (-1.0) | O/U: 39.0 (1:00 p.m. ET)
– BAL (-4.5) at PIT (+4.5) | O/U: 38.0 (1:00 p.m. ET)
– PHI (-4.0) at LAR (+4.0) | O/U: 50.5 (4:05 p.m. ET)
– CIN (-3.0) at ARI (+3.0) | O/U: 44.5 (4:05 p.m. ET)
– NYJ (+2.5) at DEN (-2.5) | O/U: 43.5 (4:25 p.m. ET)
– KC (-3.5) at MIN (+3.5) | O/U: 53.0 (4:25 p.m. ET)
– DAL (+3.5) at SF (-3.5) | O/U: 45.0 (8:20 p.m. ET)
– GB (+1.0) at LV (-1.0) | O/U: 45.0 (8:15 p.m. ET*Monday)
The underdog Bears finally got in the win column and covered the spread for the first time this season, leaving Carolina as the only remaining winless team in the standings and five teams still winless against the spread (ATS). The Giants are the lone team 0-4 ATS, while the Bengals, Broncos, Panthers and Saints all enter Week 5 at 0-3-1 ATS.
The Bears are the only team 5-0 on overs, while at the other end of the totals spectrum the Saints are lone team 4-0 on unders. New Orleans visits New England in a matchup projected to have one of the lower totals of the week.
Sean McVay’s L.A. Rams are the last remaining team undefeated ATS at 3-0-1 and look to be getting their top skill player back against the Eagles (more on that below). Speaking of Philadelphia, they along with San Francisco are the only remaining 4-0 squads in the NFL.
Baltimore-Pittsburgh is an intriguing AFC North matchup to monitor with Steelers coach Mike Tomlin routinely thriving when listed as a home underdog like he is this week. Pittsburgh is 16-5-3 ATS as a home dog under Tomlin, per Odds Shark, and have a 4.5-point cushion against the Ravens. Steelers starting QB Kenny Pickett, who left his team’s Week 4 loss to Houston with a knee injury, was not listed on the injury report Friday and is expected to start.
PROP WATCH: CAN HENRY CONTINUE SUCCESS VS. COLTS?
Derrick Henry has rushed for more than 100 yards in six of his past seven games against Indianapolis. Henry ran for 114 yards and 128 yards in two games versus the Colts in 2022 and averages 91.9 yards on 18.1 attempts per game over 14 contests in his career versus the Colts. The Titans are 8-6 straight up against the Colts when Henry is in their lineup. Indianapolis is allowing 126.8 rushing yards against per game so far this season, which ranks 22nd.
Henry rushing yards: Over 77.5 (-110) | Under 77.5 (-110)
Henry rushing attempts: Over 18.5 (-105) | Under 18.5 (-125)
Henry receiving yards: Over 11.5 (-110) | Under 11.5 (-110)
Henry receptions: Over 1.5 (-160) | Under 1.5 (+130)
Longest rush: Over 16.5 yards (-115) | Under 16.5 yards (-115)
Longest reception: Over 8.5 yards (-115) | Under 8.5 yards (-115)
Combined rushing/receiving yards: Over 93.5 (-115) | Under 93.5 (-115)
Anytime touchdown -150 | two or more TDs +280 | three or more TDs +1100 | first quarter TD +450 | first half TD +165 | Titans first TD +175 (odds via Bet365)
WEEK 5 STORYLINES TO FOLLOW
How will Bills defence look without Tre’Davious White? Buffalo’s star cornerback sustained a torn right Achilles tendon requiring season-ending surgery in his team’s Week 4 win over Miami. This puts plenty of added pressure on Christian Benford, Dane Jackson, Kaiir Elam and the rest of the Bills secondary expected to fill the void left by White. Buffalo is travelling to England to face a Jaguars team that has been overseas for more than a week and is coming off a nice win over the Falcons. One bit of silver lining for the Bills defence this week was the fact Von Miller practised and travelled with the team to Europe. The three-time All-Pro and Super Bowl 50 MVP could make his season debut for Buffalo at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium after coming off a season-ending knee injury sustained last November.
The last time the Bills and Jags met was in 2021 when Jacksonville’s Josh Allen got the better of Buffalo’s Josh Allen. The talented edge rusher finished that game with one sack, one interception, one pass deflection, one fumble recovery and led his team in tackles, while the Bills star QB had three turnovers, zero touchdowns and was sacked four times as the Jaguars won a 9-6 stinker.
What impact can Kupp, Taylor, Williams have? As mentioned above, the Rams are receiving a huge boost to their lineup with Cooper Kupp set to return from a hamstring injury suffered in training camp. Matthew Stafford has leaned heavily on rookie Puka Nacua to the tune of a whopping 39 receptions and 501 yards through his first four NFL games (both new league records by the way) and now gets his No. 1 option back.
Indianapolis running back Jonathan Taylor also returned to practice this week and could be in the Colts backfield against Tennessee. Taylor is working his way back from an ankle injury, as well as off-season contract demands and a trade request. The Titans are only allowing 70 rushing yards per game through four weeks. This would be the first game the Colts would have both Taylor and rookie QB Anthony Richardson on the field at the same time.
Lions wide receiver Jameson Williams is eligible to suit up against the Panthers after having his six-game gambling suspension reduced last week. Detroit QB Jared Goff could be short a few targets this weekend with Amon-Ra St. Brown listed as doubtful plus Williams, Josh Reynolds and Jahmyr Gibbs all questionable.
Which Zach Wilson will we get in Denver? The Jets quarterback is 1-3 on the season since replacing Aaron Rodgers yet after three ugly outings he’s coming off the best performance of his young NFL career. Literally. Wilson set a career high with 28 completions in his first two-touchdown, zero-interception game in a somewhat controversial loss to the Chiefs. Wilson actually outplayed Patrick Mahomes and were it not for a couple late, let’s call them, “favourable” calls or non-calls that went Kansas City’s way the Jets could’ve emerged with the upset victory.
Rodgers is recovering from the Achilles and ankle injuries he sustained early in Week 1 and recently said he’s not ruling out a possible return late this season, however until that happens this is Wilson’s team.
The Jets also have some big-time bulletin board material motivating them courtesy of Denver coach Sean Payton who previously described current Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett’s time as head coach of the 2022 Broncos as “one of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL.”
Adams facing Packers for first time: Davante Adams spent eight seasons in Green Bay, five of which were Pro Bowl campaigns, and he was an All-Pro in his final two years there before joining the Raiders in 2022. Adams will be facing his former team for the first time when Las Vegas hosts Green Bay on Monday Night Football. Packers Pro Bowl cornerback Jaire Alexander is expected to see plenty of Adams and has had this date circled on his calendar for quite some time.
Can Cowboys defence make statement vs. 49ers offence? The Sunday slate concludes with a huge NFC matchup between the 49ers and Cowboys. It’s hard to believe Dallas and San Francisco have not met in a primetime game since 1990 but here we are and the stakes are high. There are multiple MVP contenders involved in this matchup and one of them is Cowboys All-Pro linebacker Micah Parsons.
“I’m all about now and how can we define ourselves now and how can we say, ‘This is who we are,’ and get a statement win and come back here and show how good we really are?” Parsons said this week.
The Cowboys were the last team to hold current rushing leader Christian McCaffrey to fewer than 60 total yards in a game when these teams met in the playoffs this past January, but the 49ers still won that game 19-12 and the offence this season has looked far more refined and formidable.
(Betting lines, totals and listed odds above via Covers as of Friday unless otherwise noted and subject to change)
