TORONTO – By beating the Blue Jays Tuesday, the Texas Rangers did more than pass Toronto in the tightly packed American League wild-card standings.
They also secured the 2023 series win over Toronto, a development that makes life simpler for the Rangers and more complicated for the Blue Jays, who fell to 80-65 with 17 games remaining.
That’s the exact same record as the Mariners, but, like Texas, Seattle owns the tiebreaker over the Blue Jays. As a result, if the season ended today, the Blue Jays would not make the playoffs. Thankfully for the Blue Jays, it doesn’t – they still have two-plus weeks to gain on those AL West teams and advance.
Here’s a more specific look at what’s ahead and what it meant for Texas to take the season series over Toronto at Rogers Centre:
Blue Jays must beat Rangers on wins
If the Blue Jays are going to finish ahead of the Rangers, they’ll now have to do so with a better record. And while that’s certainly possible, it won’t be as easy as it sounds.
Including the two games remaining in the current series, the Blue Jays have 17 games left, while the Rangers have 18. If Texas plays .500 baseball from here, the Blue Jays would have to go 10-7 to pass the Rangers. If Texas can go 10-8, the Blue Jays would have to finish 11-6.
Unless the Blue Jays can win both of the next two games, passing Texas will be sneaky-tough.
It’s going to be just as hard to beat Seattle
Because the Blue Jays and Mariners have identical 80-65 records, it’s worth exploring the possibility of a tie here, too. The two teams split their six regular seasons games, which leads to MLB’s next tie-breaker: intra-divisional record.
But as anyone who’s watched the 2023 Blue Jays can tell you, that’s not going to go in the Blue Jays’ favour. Toronto is 12-25 within the AL East while Seattle’s an impressive 25-13 against the AL West. Once again, then, the Mariners win the tiebreaker and the Blue Jays have to beat Seattle outright.
So let’s say the Mariners go 9-8 down the stretch. It’s not enough for the Blue Jays to go 9-8 as well. They’d have to go 10-7 or better in that scenario. And with no game-163 tiebreakers anymore, that means the pressure to win starts now.
Two silver linings
So far this sounds pretty bleak, but there’s reason for a little hope as well. First of all, the Rangers and Mariners play each other seven times down the stretch, guaranteeing seven total losses between those teams during those two series.
And second, the Blue Jays do hold the tie-break advantage over the Astros. While Houston’s now leading the AL West with an 82-64 record, these things can change quickly. Should Houston slide in the standings, they’ll be the ones who have to beat the Blue Jays in the win column thanks to Toronto’s 4-3 record over the defending World Series winners.
End game
One way or another, either the Blue Jays, Astros, Mariners or Rangers will miss the playoffs. All four are talented, but there’s room for only three to advance.
For a Blue Jays team that’s played more than its share of close games, this means more high-pressure baseball is ahead. And while every manager would prefer to coast into the playoffs with a comfortable lead, there’s perhaps something to be said for gaining experience in these stressful games.
“Every game is important. You’d like to have them be a little bit easier on your blood pressure – or liver, post-game,” Blue Jays manager John Schneider said Monday. “But you hit the stretch we’re hitting here a little bit battle-tested. The guys have been doing it in the last couple of years at this time of year, so they’re kind of used to it. So, yeah, there’s maybe a silver lining.”
In the end, this opportunity’s still there for the Blue Jays. Ideally, they’d play well enough to take advantage of it, and there’s no better time to start banking the necessary wins than Wednesday, with Texas still in town.
