TORONTO — It got a little dicey at the end, but in defeating the Baltimore Orioles Friday night, 6-4, the Toronto Blue Jays did their part to hang around in the American League wild card race. And while they couldn’t get help from the Washington Nationals against the Boston Red Sox, they did watch the Los Angeles Angels narrowly defeat the Seattle Mariners, while the Tampa Bay Rays took one off the New York Yankees, further crowding an already-crowded field.
Here’s how the wild card standings look heading into Saturday’s action:
Each team has two games remaining between now and Sunday evening. And although they’ll need more help from the Nationals, Rays, and Angels, the Blue Jays still have several potential paths to the postseason. Here’s how things could break depending on how the Blue Jays play this weekend against the Orioles.
If the Blue Jays go 2-0…
This is obviously Toronto’s best-case scenario. At 91-71, The Blue Jays would still need help to force a tiebreaker or win a wild card spot outright, but it could come in various forms. If the Yankees went 0-2, the Blue Jays would tie them. If the Red Sox went 0-2, the Blue Jays would surpass them. If the Mariners did any worse than 2-0, the Blue Jays would surpass them.
If you like chaos, you like this scenario. Everything’s still on the table. The Blue Jays could finish tied with the Yankees for the first wild card spot. They could win the second spot outright, or finish tied with another club for it. They could finish in a three-way tie for the second spot, or even both. And there remains a possibility — if the Yankees went 0-2, the Red Sox went 1-1, and the Mariners went 2-0 — of a four-way tie for the two spots.
Here’s where it’s important to remember Toronto’s season series results against the three clubs it’s contending with:
vs. NYY — 11-8
vs. BOS — 9-10
vs. SEA — 2-4
That means the Blue Jays only hold an advantage over the Yankees if tiebreakers are needed to determine home field advantage. If, say, the Blue Jays and Red Sox finished tied for the second wild card spot, Toronto would be headed to Fenway Park to play Game No. 163 on Monday. Tie for the second spot with the Mariners and Toronto’s flying across the continent to play that game at T-Mobile Park.
What if those three teams finished tied for the second wild card spot? They’d first be designated as Club A, B, and C, with Boston having first choice by virtue of winning its season series vs. both the Blue Jays and Mariners. With the Mariners holding the upper hand on the Blue Jays this season, they’d select second. The Blue Jays would receive the final designation.
Once selections are made in that order, Club A hosts Club B on Monday, with the winner of that game hosting Club C the next day to determine who gets the wild card spot.
Anything can happen, but it’d be fairly shocking for Boston not to choose to be Club C, requiring them to win only one game versus two — even if it’s on the road. The Mariners would then certainly choose to be Club A and host the Blue Jays, with the winner hosting the Red Sox on Tuesday to determine who gets to travel to New York the following day to play the Yankees in the wild card game.
Another three-way tie scenario — quick reminder that the Blue Jays went 2-0 in this world — could materialize if the Yankees go 0-2 while the Red Sox and Mariners go 1-1. That would eliminate Seattle and create a three-way tie among the remaining teams for the two wild card spots. A, B, and C designations would again need to be decided, with the Red Sox selecting first, by virtue of winning its season series vs. both Toronto and New York, and the Blue Jays selecting second thanks to its advantage over the Yankees.
The wrinkle in this scenario is that after Club A hosts Club B on Monday to decide the first wild card spot, the loser then travels to play Club C on Tuesday to play for the second. This time, you can expect the Red Sox to choose to be Club A, giving themselves two coin flips rather than one. That would leave the Blue Jays with the fascinating choice between Club B, which gets two chances to advance to the wild card game on the road, or Club A, which has one chance to advance at home.
Considering the overwhelming role luck can play in one baseball game, it’s likely the Blue Jays would choose Club B and head to Boston on Monday to play for the first wild card. Win that game and they’re in. Lose and they’d head to the Bronx to play the Yankees on Tuesday for the second spot, needing a win to return to Boston on Wednesday to play the wild card game.
But wait — there’s more. If the Yankees and Red Sox each go 0-2, while the Blue Jays and Mariners each go 2-0, we’d get another three-way tie for two spots between New York, Toronto, and Seattle. In that case, no team holds season series advantages over each of the other two, triggering the second tiebreaker: head-to-head record against the other two clubs combined. Here’s how that would look:
TOR — 13-12 (.520)
NYY — 13-13 (.500)
SEA — 6-7 (.462)
Incredibly, the Blue Jays would get first pick of designation in this scenario and the right to choose to be Club A, hosting Club B on Monday knowing they can live to fight another day on the road against Club C if they lose.
OK, but what happens if we get ultimate chaos and the four teams tie for two wild card spots? The clubs would choose A, B, C, and D designations in order of winning percentage amongst themselves. Here’s how those records stand:
BOS — 24-21 (.533)
TOR — 22-22 (.500)
NYY — 22-23 (.489)
SEA — 9-11 (.450)
Once designations are assigned, Club A hosts B on Monday for one wild card spot, while Club C hosts D for the other on the same day. The winners would then play each other in the wild card game on Tuesday, with home field advantage decided by which team won the season series between the two.
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In another wild turn of fate, the Blue Jays actually hold a slight advantage in this remotely-possible scenario. With the first selection, the Red Sox would assuredly choose to be Club A or C, leaving the Blue Jays to select whichever of the two is remaining and hold home field advantage on Monday. The Yankees would then have the intriguing choice of playing a must-win in either Boston or Toronto, while Seattle would travel to play the team the Yankees opt not to.
So, let’s say the Yankees end up choosing to play the Red Sox, while the Mariners head to Rogers Centre. If the Yankees beat the Red Sox, and the Blue Jays beat the Mariners, Toronto would then host the wild card game on Tuesday thanks to winning its season series against New York. Incredibly, the Blue Jays could come out of this with a pair of home games, needing to win both to move on to the ALDS against the Rays.
If that all sounded like a bit much that’s because it is. An easier way to think about it is that if the Blue Jays go 2-0 this weekend, they need at least one the following things to happen: the Yankees go 0-2 or the Red Sox go 1-1. In either of those scenarios, Toronto would at least force a tiebreaker. If the Yankees win one and the Red Sox win two, it’s game over.
If the Blue Jays go 1-1…
They’d need even more help, but the Blue Jays could still sneak into a tiebreaker if they drop one of the next two against the Orioles and finish the season 90-72. The Yankees would be out of reach, but the Red Sox could still be caught if they lost both of their games vs. the Nationals this weekend.
For this scenario to work, the Blue Jays would also need the Mariners to do no better than 1-1. If the Mariners went 2-0, both the Blue Jays and Red Sox would miss out and watch Seattle play New York in the wild card game.
If the Mariners matched Toronto’s 1-1 record this weekend — remember, Boston’s gone 0-2 in this scenario — the two teams would end up in a three-way tie with the Red Sox for the second wild card spot. As indicated above, you can expect the Red Sox to choose to be Club C, setting up a game between the Blue Jays and Mariners on Monday in Seattle, with the winner hosting Boston the following day to determine the wild card team.
That would kick off an insane week for the Blue Jays in which they could conceivably play must-win’s Monday in Seattle, Tuesday in Toronto, and Wednesday in New York. Get through that gauntlet and you’re off to St. Petersburg to start a divisional series with the rested Rays.
A simple way to think about it: if the Blue Jays lose once this weekend, they need both the Red Sox to lose twice and the Mariners to lose once. Otherwise, season over.
If the Blue Jays go 0-2…
Forget about it. With the Red Sox at 90 wins and the Yankees sitting on 91, an 89-71 finish simply wouldn’t be good enough for the Blue Jays. Feel free to select from any of the dozen games Toronto lost this season when leading in the seventh inning or later if you’d like to direct some blame.
