When you’re going for the Stanley Cup, draft picks are for the birds.
Hawks, specifically.
The Toronto Maple Leafs continued to buy, as predicted by our own Jason Bukala Monday morning. We just didn’t think it’d come so fast.
The Maple Leafs acquired one of the more physical blueliners available in Jake McCabe, who also comes with the bonus of having two more years left on his contract. Chicago also retained 50 per cent of his cap hit, meaning Toronto has got a solid defensive d-man for a $2 million cap hit here.
The Leafs also landed forward Sam Lafferty in the deal, another defensively responsible player to add to the bottom six. He’ll join the previously acquired Noel Acciari down there, and put the likes of Pierre Engvall on notice.
In return, Toronto moved a couple of organizational depth players and two draft picks — a 2025 first-rounder (conditional) and a 2026 second-rounder. While the Blackhawks now will have two first-round picks in each of the next three drafts and will select inside the first three rounds 17 times in that period, the Maple Leafs are running on empty. Next year’s first-rounder is the only pick Toronto still has in the top two rounds in the next three drafts.
Is that a concern? Hardly. When it’s time to start chasing the Stanley Cup with a certain group, draft picks just become the currency you use and any future problems can be dealt with at a later date.
While the Leafs certainly didn’t overpay in this trade, there are some who looked at Tampa Bay’s Sunday acquisition of pending RFA Tanner Jeannot and were in disbelief at what they gave up for the physical depth liner: a 2025 first, 2024 second, 2023 third, 2023 fourth, 2023 fifth and project prospect Cal Foote.
An overpay? Perhaps. But who cares when the Cup window is open, right? You get your guys.
“At the end of the day I know there’s a perceived value of those picks, but we have a really good idea of what the actual value of those picks are,” Lightning GM Julien BriseBois said Monday. “When we look at what that’s worth to us, based on the odds of those picks turning into good NHL players down the road, I’d rather have the good player right now for this season and next and help this group win right now. Because I know what the odds are of those picks turning into players. I also know what the odds are of those picks turning into players that can help us win while we have this group of players right now in their prime ready to go for another long run. The odds of that are zero.”
With Ryan O’Reilly, Acciari, McCabe and Lafferty all added, we wonder if Tampa Bay — Toronto’s likely first-round opponent — answers back again.
The Eastern Conference is bulking up, and the top of the Atlantic Division looks daunting. The Maple Leafs made another bold move Monday, so we turn to Bukala to break it down.
SCOUT’S ANALYSIS
Before I get started with my analysis on the Leafs–Blackhawks trade, I have to mention a trend that started last season and is in full mode this trade deadline.
Teams are trading away draft capital several years down the road. The Leafs have included a second-round pick in 2026 in this trade, which is an incredible four(!) draft cycles away.
Toronto Receives
• Jake McCabe (50 per cent salary retention)
• Sam Lafferty
• Conditional fifth-round pick (2024)
• Conditional fifth-round pick (2025)
Let’s begin with Lafferty…
He is a six-foot-one, 195-pound, soon-to-be 28-year-old right-shot forward with one more year remaining on his contract ($1.15 million AAV).
Lafferty provides the coaching staff with several options. He can play all three forward positions and improves Toronto’s checking forward depth. He’s a sound skater who is a threat to produce offence on the penalty kill. I appreciate his consistent compete. He doesn’t back down from contact or the battle areas. Lafferty has been credited with 94 hits so far this season.
Lafferty has played with Zach Aston-Reese (Pittsburgh) in the past. It’s easy to envision Toronto aligning Aston-Reese and Noel Acciari with Lafferty.
Lafferty and Acciari will be used on the penalty kill.
In my opinion, the most important element these three players will bring to the Leafs’ playoff roster is physicality. It’s been a long time since a Leafs team has had three forwards potentially playing together who have a combined 407 hits between them.
For perspective: Leaf skaters Kerfoot, Engvall, Jarnkrok, Kampf, Bunting, Holmberg, Marner, Nylander, and O’Reilly have 368 hits total between the nine of them.
Here’s a look at Lafferty’s stats so far this season:
Now to McCabe…
The left-shot 29-year-old defenceman is best defined as a two-way D. He’s been credited with 122 hits and 115 blocked shots this season. His cap hit was $4 million and his contract has term that has him signed through 2024-25. The fact Toronto was able to negotiate 50 per cent retention of his salary is a win for the Leafs. Having McCabe under contract for the next two seasons at a $2 million cap hit is great value.
Here’s a look at McCabe’s stats so far this season:
McCabe moves well, can match up against opponents’ top six forwards, and be deployed on the first penalty-killing unit. The added physical presence and shot-blocking ability provides the Leafs with more defensive depth in the trenches.
Here’s a look at the Maple Leafs’ draft grid for the next three seasons:
I really like the last couple of weeks of investment Kyle Dubas has made in this roster. Adding players costs assets. I’m not the least bit concerned about the draft grid. It’s worth the risk. It’s not going to be easy, however, playing Tampa in the first round. I recognize if things don’t work out the cupboards will be bare for the foreseeable future and a retool might be on the horizon.
The bottom line, for me, is the Leafs are better positioned to win in the playoffs with the additions of O’Reilly, Acciari, McCabe, and Lafferty.
Chicago Receives
• Conditional first-round pick (2025)
• Second-round pick (2026)
• Joey Anderson
• Pavel Gogolev
The most important part of the deal for the Blackhawks are the draft picks. Anderson and Gogolev provide some minor-league depth, but they are not full-time NHL players.
Here is a look at the Blackhawks draft grid for the next three seasons:
Still shopping…?
The Leafs still have $2,770,833 in available cap space if Matt Murray remains on LTIR, although Dubas said Monday the goaltender is nearing a return.
If Murray is healthy enough to come off LTIR, however, Toronto will be over the cap and required to make another move to become compliant.
The Blackhawks have $19,356,563 in space and have made it known they will assist with brokering deals with their available room. I expect the Hawks to continue to add to their draft capital in the lead-up to the deadline. They can retain salary two more times.
