TORONTO – After a four-game sweep of the Athletics, the 31-28 Toronto Blue Jays are positioned as well as they have been since early April.
Now just half a game behind the Twins for the third American League wild-card spot, the Blue Jays sound hopeful entering their upcoming series against the Philadelphia Phillies.
“We feel like we’re playing our best baseball now since the start of the season,” said starter Kevin Gausman.
“Momentum is a real thing and I think the guys are pretty locked in,” added manager John Schneider.
Ahead of next month’s July 31 trade deadline, the Blue Jays are hoping to build on that momentum and establish themselves as clear buyers. Like most teams, they’ll determine their path forward based on a variety of factors including underlying performance, health, playoff odds and, of course, win-loss record. But for the sake of simplicity: if they’re above .500, they’ll likely buy and if they’re below .500, they’ll have to consider selling.
Of course, the first step is staying in contention with what you have. With that in mind, let’s take a closer at what needs to happen for the Blue Jays to position themselves as buyers later this summer…
Sustain offensive success
Rather quietly, the Blue Jays had one of the game’s best offences in May with a wRC+ that ranked second in baseball (123), the lowest strikeout rate in MLB (17.7 per cent) and more runs scored than all but five teams.
Leading the way were established stars like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (5 HR, 149 wRC+), Bo Bichette (7 HR, 137 wRC+) and George Springer (6 HR, 134 wRC+) while the likes of Addison Barger (149 wRC+), Nathan Lukes (148 wRC+), Alejandro Kirk (146 wRC+) and Ernie Clement (133 wRC+) were all extremely productive, too.
“The best (stretch) I’ve seen in a number of years,” Schneider said. “Contributions from everyone which is the coolest part for me.”
If the Blue Jays can come close to sustaining that they’ll contend all season, and even if they regress a little from where they were in May they’ll give the pitching staff a little more breathing room, potentially saving high-leverage relievers from the kind of heavy workload they endured in April.
With Daulton Varsho and Anthony Santander both on the injured list to start the month of June, the team still needs further contributions from the likes of Barger, Clement and Lukes.
Get some production from the back of the rotation
Realistically, most teams have questions at the back of their rotations, including the Dodgers (Tony Gonsolin and Landon Knack), Yankees (Ryan Yarbrough and Will Warren), Padres (Stephen Kolek) and Tigers (Sawyer Gipson-Long). With Bowden Francis battling home run issues and uncertainty in the No. 5 spot, the Blue Jays are in this category, too.
Granted, Spencer Turnbull has been making rehab appearances and Max Scherzer is once again facing live hitters, so some experienced pitchers are working their way back, but both have more hurdles to clear before they’re ready for the majors again. Eventually, Alek Manoah could join the Blue Jays’ rotation, but that would be August at the earliest, and that’s only if his recovery from elbow surgery continues going well.
In the meantime, one bullpen day every five games puts real strain on the pitching staff, so the more stability the Blue Jays can get from Francis in the No. 4 spot, the better off they’ll be. As the trade deadline approaches, the Blue Jays would ideally consider impact additions for the rotation, but getting to that point likely requires the likes of Francis and Eric Lauer to hold their own first.
Take advantage of weak opponents
As we saw this past weekend when the Blue Jays swept the A’s, it’s essential to take advantage of weak opponents when the schedule allows.
Not only will the Blue Jays play the Athletics again, they have two series coming up against the White Sox and they’ll host the Angels in early July. They also play the Orioles in late July, by which point Baltimore might have traded away the likes of Cedric Mullins and Ryan O’Hearn.
Regardless of what Baltimore does, the Blue Jays have real opportunity against the A’s, White Sox and Angels and must take advantage while they can because chances against those particular teams won’t be there in August or September.
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Develop minor-league talent
While the likes of Arjun Nimmala and Trey Yesavage are presumably all but untouchable in trade talks, other minor leaguers can give the front office flexibility by performing well ahead of the deadline.
Last year, for instance, the Blue Jays acquired RJ Schreck for Justin Turner and Yohendrick Pinango for Nate Pearson. As those trades show, lower-tier prospects can help acquire bench bats and middle relievers, so there’s value in those players, too. A year later, if the Blue Jays are buyers, they’ll need players of that calibre to offer in addition to the more coveted prospects who would be required for bigger additions.
If the Blue Jays are legitimate contenders they’ll buy regardless of what’s happening on the farm, but the better the Blue Jays’ fringe prospects do, the more flexibility the front office will have to get creative and add depth.
