Were a “data-centric” executive like Sunny Mehta to do a deep dive on the Toronto Maple Leafs, he would likely conclude that the organization needs more time and assets to build a true Stanley Cup contender.
Similarly, though, MLSE president Keith Pelley’s recruitment and (should he be granted permission) interview process with an intriguing target like Mehta would reveal that he, too, may need a little time and support.
The talented hockey team and the buzzy GM candidate both boast undeniable strengths. They both also have areas of weaknesses that must be addressed to get this train humming.
Mehta, 47, is a two-time Stanley Cup champion assistant general manager of the Florida Panthers. And as is the case with fellow AGM Brett Peterson — who interviewed for Nashville’s soon-to-be vacant GM position and was another of Panthers GM Bill Zito’s earliest hires — Mehta’s behind-the-scenes role in championship-level success has put him in line to potentially get poached.
Under Mehta’s guidance, the Cats went from dabbling in numbers to its deepest investigations into player evaluation yet. The pros and cons of every transaction would be studied and weighed by Mehta and his team.
Why Gustav Forsling would be a worthy waiver pickup. Whether it was worth sacrificing a skilled backup goalie in Spencer Knight if it meant buying low on Seth Jones, who could fit better in Florida’s system than Chicago’s. Is the roster good enough and draft capital rich enough to spend first-rounders this season? Mehta can stack proof, then make his case.
“We just liked him genuinely, as a person,” Zito told NHL.com, upon hiring the stats wizard. “And then professionally, I think there’s a lot of bright people, but he has an uncanny ability to digest incredible amounts of information, rapidly regurgitate them, simplify them, and then project them back out to whoever his audience is. That’s a remarkable skill.
“There’s probably many people who can see things the way he sees them or calculate the way he calculates, but probably not interact with others, and then subsequently develop those ideas and refine them. I think (that’s) one of his greatest strengths.”
Mehta grew up a Devils fan in the ’80s, mesmerized by watching the local NHL club practise. He played hockey through high school but developed varied interests. He studied music at the University of Miami, then made a living playing guitar in New Orleans.
He served as a trader at Peak6 Capital Management at the Chicago Board of Trade and got his master’s degree in data science from City University of New York.
His strategic and statistical bent led him to thrive as a poker player, and he co-authored two books on the subject: Professional No-Limit Hold ‘Em: Volume One (2007) and Small Stakes No-Limit Hold ‘Em (2009).
Mehta’s dual interests in probability and sport naturally made him a sucker for Michael Lewis’s Moneyball.
“And so for me, I think it was just a natural next step, to say, well, wait a sec, if people are doing this in baseball, what about hockey?” Mehta told NHL.com in 2021.
From publishing some of hockey’s earliest advanced analytics articles to heading up the league’s first full-time analytics department with the Devils from 2014 to 2018, Mehta has always been ahead of the curve.
After leaving the Devils, Mehta consulted for the Washington Capitals in the 2019-20 season. He also worked for the Arizona Coyotes in 2010-11, as well as for six Major League Baseball teams through a partnership with Zelus Analytics.
If the man arrives at a decision, he can show his work.
Then explain his rationale to either a president of hockey ops or ownership.
So, when Pelley speaks of wanting a data-centric hockey-operations leader for his most important hire yet, there’s good reason to link Mehta.
“They have to really understand the importance of data and where data is moving,” Pelley said, regarding Brad Treliving’s unknown successor. “Every single decision we make will be evidence-based. Evidence-based decisions are never wrong.
“That’s not to say there’s not room for the heart. That doesn’t mean there’s not room to check culture. But it’s evidence-based.”
(If you caught circa-2018 Kyle Dubas flashbacks at Pelley’s press conference, you’re not alone.)
While Mehta is expert at digging up, processing, and presenting evidence, he lacks experience other candidates may have in player scouting as well as negotiating trades and contracts.
It’s worth noting that Mehta joined the Panthers at a time when the franchise held a robust prospect pool, all its draft capital, tradable pro talent (think: Jonathan Huberdeau, MacKenzie Weegar) and gobs of cap space.
A sweet pocket hand with plenty of outs.
Whomever inherits the Leafs role won’t get such luxuries.
Even the best mathematicians need numbers to work their craft.
This isn’t to say the whip-smart Mehta can’t learn other aspects of the business or his logical mind wouldn’t be of great value to Toronto.
(Would his analysis have argued Fraser Minten wasn’t worth including in the Brandon Carlo trade? Or that Pontus Holmberg and Alex Steeves might be worth qualifying? Perhaps.)
This is to say that hiring Mehta as general manager, or any candidate with a similar skillset, should come with realistic expectations regarding his expertise.
Whatever the title, a data-centric hire like this should come parcelled with a “hockey guy” who can rub shoulders with the other GMs and help steer Mehta toward the problems that he can solve.
With Jim Nill and now Doug Armstrong seemingly out of the running, round-the-block names like Dean Lombardi, Peter Chiarelli, Mike Gillis, and Kevyn Adams have been floated, while ex-players such as Chris Pronger, Jason Spezza and Ryan Getzlaf are interested in more front-office work.
Let’s throw the recently-fired Tom Fitzgerald in the mix, too.
Immediately upon leaving the Devils, Fitzgerald stated Monday he’s looking “forward to the next step in (his) hockey career.”
But now New Jersey has joined Nashville and Toronto on the hunt for a fresh head of hockey ops, and there’s a boyhood Devils fan who’s getting plenty of buzz.
Regardless, if the Maple Leafs do hire a more familiar name while simultaneously empowering a data-centric star, they better be on the same page, the way Zito and Mehta have been.
