It’s finally here. The last day of the NFL’s 2020 regular season is upon us.
All 32 teams will play on Sunday, there’s a ton of playoff and draft implications, and COVID-19 will likely play a factor in how things could unfold in what is sure to be a weird NFL finale.
There’s a lot to get to, so let’s dive right in. Here’s what to watch for in Week 17 of the 2020 season.
CLINCHING SCENARIOS
The biggest story of Week 17 will be which teams get into the playoffs and which teams miss out.
Entering Sunday’s action, there are seven playoff spots up for grabs: all three wild-card spots in the AFC, plus the AFC South division title; in the NFC, two of the three wild-card spots, plus the NFC East title.
Here’s a look at the playoff picture through 16 weeks.
AFC
1) *Kansas City Chiefs (14-1 – Clinched AFC West, No. 1 seed)
2) *Buffalo Bills (12-3 – Clinched AFC East)
3) *Pittsburgh Steelers (12-3 – Clinched AFC North)
4) Tennessee Titans (10-5)
5) Miami Dolphins (10-5)
6) Baltimore Ravens (10-5)
7) Cleveland Browns (10-5)
In the hunt…
Indianapolis Colts (10-5)
NFC
1) *Green Bay Packers (12-3 – Clinched NFC North)
2) *New Orleans Saints (11-4 – Clinched NFC South)
3) *Seattle Seahawks (11-4 – Clinched NFC West)
4) Washington Football Team (6-9)
5) *Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-5 – Clinched wild-card spot)
6) Los Angeles Rams (9-6)
7) Chicago Bears (8-7)
In the hunt…
Arizona Cardinals (8-7)
Dallas Cowboys (6-9)
New York Giants (5-10)
Seven playoff spots, 11 teams still alive. Get ready for a wild final Sunday in the NFL.
With so much left to be decided, the Week 17 post-season clinching scenarios are plentiful and complicated. For a complete look at all the ways Sunday could play out, check out our Week 17 Clinching Scenarios breakdown.
PLAYOFF SEEDING
While half of the playoff spots have been clinched heading into the final day of the regular season, just one seed has been locked in: the Chiefs hold the top spot in the AFC and earned a first-round bye in the process.
Otherwise, the remaining playoff positioning across both conferences will be decided on Sunday — with the top spot in the NFC the most coveted, as it earns the winner a weekend off to watch the wild-card games from the couch.
There’s a wild number of possible seeding combinations – especially in the NFC. According to NFL Research, seven Week 17 games in the NFC have playoff seeding implications, which amount to a mind-blowing 128 possible seeding combinations.
Week 17 playoff scenarios
There are 7 games with NFC playoff seeding implications, which amounts to 128 possible combinations of results (excludes ties)#NFL pic.twitter.com/juhJXxmpny
— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) December 30, 2020
In the AFC, there are far fewer potential seeding combinations (32), but five games in the conference will have an impact on the post-season order of teams.
Week 17 playoff scenarios
There are 5 games with AFC playoff seeding implications, which amounts to 32 possible combinations of results (excludes ties) pic.twitter.com/ZVzltqI4Pg
— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) December 30, 2020
COVID-19’S IMPACT
With so much on the line Sunday, COVID-19’s impact on teams becomes even more pronounced – and the coronavirus will be difficult to ignore in Week 17.
Here’s a look at some of the biggest names that will miss out on the final day of the regular-season due to COVID-19 protocols.
• For New Orleans, the entire running back group is out of Sunday’s game due to close contact with Alvin Kamara.
• The Browns will be without cornerback Denzel Ward and linebacker Malcolm Smith in their win-and-get-in game against Pittsburgh.
• Wide receiver Cooper Kupp and defensive tackle Michael Brockers will be out for the Rams, as L.A. attempts to qualify for the post-season.
• Backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, who replaced Tua Tagovailoa last week to lead Miami to a win, is out for the Dolphins’ must-win game in Buffalo.
• Linebackers Devin White and Shaq Barrett will be absent from the Buccaneers’ season finale against the Falcons.
• Steelers cornerback Joe Haden and tight Eric Ebron hit the reserve/COVID-19 list Saturday, meaning both could potentially miss wild-card weekend as well.
BROWNS LOOK TO REBOUND AND END PLAYOFF DROUGHT
After playing what may have been their worst game of the season last week against the Jets with a playoff spot on the line, Baker Mayfield and the Browns get another shot in Week 17 to end the NFL’s longest post-season drought – this time against a short-handed Steelers team.
A win over Pittsburgh – who is sitting Ben Roethlisberger and T.J. Watt, among other key starters – would push Cleveland into the playoffs for the first time since 2002.
It’s arguable the Browns could be granted a pass for their Week 16 loss, having to play without four wide receivers and two starting offensive linemen due to COVID-19 protocols and injury. But if Mayfield and Company aren’t able to overcome the Steelers’ backups on Sunday and end up missing out on the post-season for the 18th straight season, serious questions will need to be asked of these players in the off-season.
CARDINALS VS. RAMS WILL HAVE RIPPLE EFFECT IN NFC WILD-CARD RACE
One of the biggest matchups of the NFL’s regular-season finale will also be one of the weirdest.
Cardinals versus Rams is a win-and-get-in game, so there are huge stakes in this one not only for the teams playing but also for the Chicago Bears.
An Arizona victory would see the Cardinals get into the playoffs but wouldn’t necessarily eliminate the Rams, who would still get in with a loss if the Bears fall to the Packers. A Los Angeles win over Arizona, though, would see the Rams reach the post-season, the Cardinals eliminated and the Bears claim a wild-card spot regardless of their result against Green Bay.
But here’s the big twist in this one: the quarterback situation is far from certain.
Jared Goff is out with a broken right thumb, so former AAF quarterback John Wolford — who has never played an NFL snap — will start for Sean McVay and the Rams. As noted above, L.A. will also be without receiver Cooper Kupp.
Kyler Murray, meanwhile, is dealing with a lower-leg injury that put his status in question earlier in the week, before the Cardinals pivot declared himself ready to go a couple of days ago.
So not only will the NFC wild-card race be shaped by the result of Cardinals-Rams, but both teams are far from full strength as they fight for their playoff lives.
WHO WILL WIN THE NFC EAST?
It’s a question football fans and pundits have been asking all season long, so it’s no surprise the fate of the worst division in football will be decided in the final game of the regular season.
The Washington Football Team is in pole position to capture the NFC East crown heading into Week 17, and their goal is simple: beat the very injured Eagles on Sunday Night Football, capture the division title and host a wild-card game next weekend.
Achieving that goal may not be so simple, however, because who will start at quarterback for Washington is not yet clear. Alex Smith appears to be trending in the right direction after missing the last two games with a strained right calf.
If Smith can’t play, Taylor Heinicke will get the nod under centre. The presence of Heinicke, who has started just one game in the NFL heading into Sunday, would mean a win is far from guaranteed for the Football Team on Sunday night.
What happens if Washington loses? In that case, the winner of Sunday afternoon’s Cowboys-Giants game will be crowned NFC East champs.
We’d expect nothing less than this amount of chaos from the 2020 NFC East.
COLTS COULD BE WEEK 17’S BIGGEST LOSER – EVEN IF THEY WIN
Since 1990, only one team has won 11 games in a season and missed out on the playoffs: the Matt Cassel-led Patriots in 2008.
On Sunday, the Indianapolis Colts could become the second team to suffer that fate.
After blowing a 24-7 third-quarter lead and eventually falling to the Steelers in Week 16, the Colts find themselves in a perilous position. Indianapolis needs a win on Sunday against the 1-14 Jaguars and for one of Baltimore, Cleveland or Miami to lose their win-and-get-in games. If that doesn’t happen, the Colts could earn their 11th win of the season and still miss the post-season.
What makes this scenario even more intriguing is that, while the Colts could make an embarrassing bit of history in Week 17, it’s also entirely possible they emerge as AFC South champions with a win over the Jaguars and a Titans’ loss to the Texans.
Either way, Sunday is going to be a whirlwind for the Colts and their fans.
