EDMONTON — It’s Things We (Think We) Know Series III, Volume III. Let’s dive right in.
Things we know
The Edmonton Oilers have 18 games left to make up five points on Pacific Division-leading Vegas, while trying to stay ahead of third-place Los Angeles, which has crept to within a point of the Oilers with a game in hand. The Oilers have two games left versus the Kings — one home, one away — and one game left at Vegas on Apr. 1.
Things we (think we) know
A couple of weeks ago, when winning the Pacific meant playing the wild-card Colorado Avalanche in Round 1, conventional wisdom would have preferred second place in the Pacific and a fourth consecutive date with the Los Angeles Kings, a team the Oilers have beaten with increasing ease over the last three Round 1s — in seven, then six, then five games.
Today, it looks far more likely that the winner of the Pacific will get the Minnesota Wild, a team that has muddled through the stretch run around .500, but one that is expecting (allegedly) to get injured stars Kirill Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek and Jonas Brodin back before the playoffs begin.
So, which is a more formidable opponent for Edmonton? Well, over the last six seasons, here are some numbers:
• Edmonton is 4-11 (.267) versus the Wild, and 2-6 (.250) at St. Paul, Minn.
• Edmonton is 12-5-1 (.694) versus the Kings, and 5-3-1 (.611) in Los Angeles.
• In the playoffs, the Oilers are 12-6 (.667) over the past three springs v. the Kings, and 6-2 (.750) at L.A.
Yes, the Kings are bound to beat Edmonton one of these years, and perhaps the matchup is getting boring. But for whatever reason, the Wild have owned Edmonton over the past long while, and with the pedigree of player the Wild have returning for playoffs, I think the Oilers should be shooting for second place in the Pacific and home ice against the Kings in Round 1.
Things we know
The Oilers have too many players whose games have dipped since last season. Outside of Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse, Corey Perry, Brett Kulak … name someone else who is having a better season this year than last?
Jason Gregor reported this on Oilersnation.com this week, comparing the current season to career averages: Only three Edmonton forwards are having an above-average year scoring goals at 5 on 5, and the 39-year-old Perry is at the top of that list.
Connor McDavid is on pace for the worst goals/60 (0.77), second worst assists/60 (1.48) and worst points/60 (2.25) of his career.
Evan Bouchard is on pace for the worst assists/60 (0.75) and points/60 (1.20) of his career.
Stuart Skinner is on pace for his worst goals against average (2.88) and save percentage (.896) over his career as a No. 1.
That’s your best forward, your best defenceman and your best goalie. Can you win with these developments?
Things we (think we) know
Some people think the Oilers have been saving something for their final 20 games and playoffs. That they realized after last season they needed to have more left in June, so they’ve consciously operated at somewhere below 100 per cent this season in hopes of peaking when it counts.
Hey, it’s a theory — and a hopeful one at that. It may even simply be sub-conscious.
So, is there anything here? Well, Part 1 of the theory holds true (see above). But can you flip the switch and get to Part 2?
It starts at the top, with McDavid, Bouchard and Skinner. Can they get their game to a Leon Draisaitl-level of uptick?
McDavid has been better in the past three games, and so has Skinner, who has been good through a 2-1 stretch — the loss coming in Buffalo where Edmonton shooters hit five posts and take responsibility for only scoring twice in a game they dominated for long stretches.
Bouchard will always make you better offensively, scoring against Buffalo. But the Sabres scored two goals that Bouchard was in position to prevent, but did not. If it’s fair to say that Edmonton can’t win if McDavid isn’t a leader offensively, then we’re saying that you can’t win when your top minutes player is a defensive liability. He’ll have to shore up his game without the puck.
Beyond those three, there is a big group of players whose time has come to raise their game, if the “saving it for playoffs” theory is going to hold any water. It starts with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (22 even strength points playing with McDavid), moves to Viktor Arvidsson (18 ESP playing with Draisaitl) and lands on third-line wingers Mattias Janmark and Connor Brown (10 combined goals in 127 man games).
More, please.
