Over the last two weeks, Charlie Montoyo’s job got a lot easier, and a little bit harder.
With the additions of George Springer and Marcus Semien, the Toronto Blue Jays manager has a significantly better team at his disposal than he did in 2020, but he also has a few more decisions to make with his position players.
Depending on how bullish you are on the bats of players like Rowdy Tellez, Randal Grichuk, and Alejandro Kirk, the Blue Jays have as many as 11 everyday-calibre players. Beyond the quantity of talent, there aren’t clear delineations between the Blue Jays’ top-of-the-order types, middle-of-the-lineup thumpers, and guys who need as few plate appearances as possible. This roster is filled with right-handed power hitters with pretty similar profiles.
While Montoyo’s task of filling out a lineup on any given day might be enviable, it won’t be easy. This Blue Jays lineup has the potential to be exciting, but how will it look?
Let’s walk a mile in Montoyo’s shoes, slot-by-slot.
Leadoff Man
Preferred Qualities: High on-base percentage (especially if it’s driven by walks), worthiness of the most plate appearances, speed.
Candidates: Springer, Semien, Cavan Biggio
Winner: Springer
When the Blue Jays added Springer and Semien, they brought aboard the players who’ve posted the second- and fourth-most leadoff plate appearances in the majors over the past two seasons. Those are some solid candidates, and the Blue Jays already had a great in-house option in Biggio, who has a higher career walk rate and on-base percentage than his veteran counterparts and is the best base stealer of the three.
Springer gets the nod for a couple of reasons. For one, he’s the guy with the $150-million contract, so he’ll probably get the role he’s most comfortable in. He’s also the best hitter of the three (and probably the best hitter on the team) so it’s hard to lose by giving him the most at-bats. You could argue Biggio is a more perfect fit for this role, but the average leadoff man gets approximately 18 more plate appearances than the number two hitter, and you want those extra PAs going to Springer.
The cherry on top is that ZiPS projects he’ll post the highest OBP (.355) on the team. Putting Springer here might lead to a few more solo home runs than you’d like, but there’s plenty of power up and down the lineup.
Second Hitter
Preferred Qualities: All-around excellence, high on-base percentage, being left-handed or able to hit the ball the other way doesn’t hurt.
Candidates: Semien, Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Winner: Bichette
Although Bichette’s OBP might be a bit low for this spot, his overall offensive production has been excellent since he reached the major leagues. He runs well and sprays the ball all around the diamond, which should prevent him from getting doubled up when Springer gets on base to lead off a game. ZiPS projects Bichette for the best OPS on the Blue Jays in 2021 (.846) and that could end being conservative for a 22-year-old with a career OPS of .896 in his young career.
If Guerrero Jr. breaks out to the point that he’s undeniably the team’s best hitter, he ought to get consideration here, but he’s got a lot of work to do to reach that point.
Third Hitter
Preferred Qualities: Enough power to hit home runs in two-out, none-on situations, but not so good that seeing a disproportionate number of those situations is a waste of his talents.
Candidates: Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Teoscar Hernandez, Rowdy Tellez.
Winner: Tellez vs. RHP, Gurriel vs. LHP
This spot should go to a hitter with a lower, but still respectable, OBP, and the ability to hit the ball out of the park. That describes a lot of Toronto’s hitters. We’ll give Tellez the nod here on the strength of his excellent 2020 — and for the sake of lefty-righty balance in the middle of the order. Gurriel Jr. is another low-patience, high-power hitter and he’s hit .295.328/.607 against southpaws since the beginning of 2019.
Cleanup Man
Preferred Qualities: Big-time power, enough OBP to justify a spot in the top half of the lineup, more of a flyball hitter would be nice.
Candidates: Semien, Herndandez, Guerrero Jr.,
Winner: Hernandez
The Blue Jays’ biggest breakout star from 2020 is the most intuitive pick here and he’s projected to lead the team in home runs (35). If Hernandez’s OBP settles around his career average of .309 he’ll need to move down the lineup, but he deserves a chance to prove he’s the guy who’s hit .274/.343/.586 since the 2019 all-star break.
Semien isn’t a hulking slugger, but if he finds his near-MVP form from 2019 he could be worthy of this position. This is also another place Vladdy could land if 2021 is a breakout year for him.
Fifth Hitter
Preferred Qualities: Good overall hitter with power, arguably better than your third hitter.
Candidates: Semien, Guerrero Jr.
Winner: Guerrero Jr.
If Semien hasn’t found a home yet, he’d deserve consideration, but you don’t want to push Guerrero Jr. much lower than this. Not only should his production warrant this spot (he’s projected for a .276/.341/.498 line), his development remains important to the organization and getting him at-bats is part of that. The Blue Jays will probably be reticent to drop him too low in the lineup unless he’s underperforming to a significant degree.
Sixth Hitter
Preferred Qualities: It’s tough to be too specific at this point, a good hitter would be nice.
Candidates: Semien, Biggio, Gurriel Jr. vs. RHP
Winner: Semien
At some point, the veteran infielder needs to find a home. This spot lies in the middle of his possible outcomes. If he produces at an elite clip like he did in 2019 this is way too low. If he is more of a league-average hitter — like he’s been for much of his career — then it’s too high, especially considering the promising alternatives. This seems like a good place to start, though.
Seventh Hitter
Preferred Qualities: Better than the eighth hitter.
Candidates: Biggio, Gurriel Jr. vs. RHP
Winner: Biggio
As a career .240/.368/.430 hitter, the 25-year-old is overqualified for this spot. That’s what happens with a good lineup, though. Good players get squeezed.
There’s an argument to be made for Biggio in the nine hole as a “second leadoff hitter” of sorts, but that’s getting too cute when you’re talking about a loss of approximately 40 plate appearances. When you manage to particular scenarios it’s easy to get burned. If the super utility man hit ninth, he might start some memorable rallies for the top of the lineup, but the invisible effect of him coming to the plate less frequently and more at-bats going to inferior hitters would almost certainly cancel that out.
Eighth Hitter
Preferred Qualities: Better than the ninth hitter.
Candidates: Gurriel Jr. vs. RHP, Randal Grichuk vs. LHP, Alejandro Kirk when he’s playing.
Winner: Gurriel Jr. vs. RHP, Grichuk vs. LHP
There aren’t a lot of choices to be made at this point, and it’s pretty crazy to think that a guy like Gurriel Jr. with a career line of .287/.327/.508 would fit a less-than-glamorous spot like this, but that’s how much depth the Blue Jays have. It’s also worth noting that against RHP he’s hit a slightly less impressive .281/.325/.480. If Gurriel Jr. gets on one of his trademark heaters he might be worth shifting up, and maybe he and Semien swap if the former Oakland Athletic’s bat doesn’t come around, but this is a fair place for him to open.
Grichuk’s situation is significantly simpler. He needs a place to go when he’s playing and there’s no one above him that he should displace.
Ninth Hitter
Preferred Qualities: Someone who doesn’t create a gaping hole in the lineup with their presence.
Candidates: Whoever’s catching.
Winner by default: Whoever’s catching.
While Danny Jansen and Kirk have various degrees of offensive potential, it’s hard to justify moving either of them up the lineup unless someone else is struggling. It will be interesting to monitor how their playing time gets distributed, but they’re unlikely to factor into the top of Montoyo’s lineup.
With all of that in mind we get lineups that look like this:
This is neither a prediction, nor a definitive lineup that fits every opposing pitcher. There will be modifications made on a day-to-day basis. Biggio will play plenty of positions. Tellez and Grichuk won’t exclusively face opposite-handed pitching. Gurriel Jr. might get moved up against breaking-ball-heavy pitchers, against whom he excels. Kirk could draw in and move up with high-velocity hurlers on the mound.
It is, however, a glimpse at one way to structure this lineup. There are plenty of ways to do it. The good news for the Blue Jays is that their position group is good enough that almost any of them should work.
*All photos courtesy of AP
