From the moment Canada revealed its roster for the 4 Nations Face-Off, fans and pundits questioned whether the team’s goaltending was good enough to win the star-studded tournament.
Canada coach Jon Cooper must decide between Adin Hill, Jordan Binnington and Sam Montembeault for Wednesday’s opener against Sweden at Bell Centre. Unlike the United States with Connor Hellebuyck, there is not an obvious choice here. Cooper will announce Canada’s starter Tuesday, and he told reporters Monday that he does not expect to use a rotation.
Hill is considered by many as the favourite because of his Stanley Cup-winning performance in 2023, when he came out of nowhere to lead the Vegas Golden Knights to the championship. He, however, has been inconsistent this season despite Vegas having the fifth-best points percentage in the NHL at the break.
Less than half of Hill’s starts (16 of 34) are quality starts, meaning he has recorded negative goals saved above expected more often than not. His 47.1 quality-start percentage (QS%) is the worst among the 12 goaltenders participating in the 4 Nations Face-Off. He is the only one whose QS% is under 50 per cent.
Binnington’s name is also engraved on the Stanley Cup, though his win with the St. Louis Blues came nearly six years ago. He is the most experienced of Canada’s three goaltenders by a wide margin, having played 41 playoff games to Hill’s 19 and Montembeault’s zero.
“(I) obviously watched him in 2019 when he took the (Blues) to the Stanley Cup,” Cooper told reporters in December. “Listen, you want somebody that’s got drive and competitiveness. (Binnington) never gives up. He never gives up on a play, never gives up on a puck. I just love that about him. I love when the light was the brightest, he was shining.”
Although Montembeault is the least battle-tested of the bunch, his statistical profile is the most impressive. He has recorded six steals this season for the Montreal Canadiens — tied for second most in the league with Philadelphia’s Samuel Ersson, New York’s Igor Shesterkin and Dallas’s Jake Oettinger.
Montembeault has held strong behind a poor defence. Montreal has allowed 3.17 expected goals per 60 minutes when Montembeault is in net, which ranks 43rd out of 51 goaltenders who have played at least 1,000 minutes. Hill and Binnington, by comparison, are eighth and 21st in that category, respectively. (Montembeault also has the added motivation of wanting to play well in front of his home crowd in Montreal.)
Cooper is unlikely to call on Montembeault during the tournament, but he is no slouch. It would be interesting to see how he would do with superior players in front of him. (Montembeault was excellent in helping Canada win gold at the 2023 World Championship, going 6-1-0 with a 1.42 goals-against average and .939 save percentage.)
Montembeault told reporters after being named to the team in December that the decision-makers “(will) probably go with whoever is hot when the tournament starts.” No one has pulled away from the pack, though, as all three have lost six of their past 10 starts. Hill has the best traditional numbers over that span, posting a 2.62 goals-against average and .895 save percentage. But he also has the fewest quality starts (three).
As for which goaltender gives Canada the best chance to win the 4 Nations Face-Off, the real answer is Logan Thompson, who said last month that the Canadian management group “never reached out to me.” Thompson is having a Vezina Trophy-calibre season for the Washington Capitals with 26.2 goals saved above expected, trailing only Hellebuyck (27.9) and Anaheim’s Lukas Dostal (26.8). Thompson’s 80.0 QS% is second-best in the league behind Toronto’s Anthony Stolarz (83.3 QS%).
But since Thompson is not on the team, it truly is a coin flip. Montembeault has the strongest statistical case, but Hill and Binnington are the realistic options. Binnington has been slightly more consistent than Hill this season, which should give him the nod to start the tournament.
