By January of the past few seasons, we’ve known exactly who the Toronto Maple Leafs would play in playoffs, to a comically high degree of certainty. They weren’t catching the Bruins or Panthers for first in the Atlantic during two years where those two teams were red hot, and they were well out of the wild-card race. That meant the two-three matchup was inevitable, which at times made the second half feel like a slog.
As of this writing on Jan. 24th, 2025, it’s conceivable that the Leafs could face 11 of the 15 other teams in the Eastern Conference. Believe me, I wanted to whittle it down for this article, but even my godforsaken New York Islanders still have a legitimate chance at a wild-card spot if they can tape together a whopping three-game win streak in the next month (they have a few games in hand).
And so, who do the Leafs want it to be? If they’re targeting a longer playoff run this season, which first-round opponent would give them the best chance at winning the second playoff round of the Core Four era?
Let’s work our way up to the “Who do the Leafs want” grand reveal by going in reverse order, and starting with who they don’t want, and why. I’ve eliminated Washington, Carolina and New Jersey, as they’re likely to be in the Metro side playoffs, and also the Sabres, as they’re the first “Sorry but you’re done” team in the East.
11. Florida Panthers
Nightmare matchup, obviously. The defending Cup champs, back-to-back years in the Cup Final, physical brutes built for the post-season, goalie capable of black-out for hot stretches, this was a no-brainer answer.
Funny enough, I still think they beat the Lightning if it happens, but there are just too many scary names to feel good about it. What would the Leafs have, like a 53 per cent chance of winning? You’ve got Jon Cooper coaching Andrei Vasilevskiy, Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Victor Hedman and Anthony Cirelli — the rest of the team could be wacky-waving inflatable tube men and they’d be a tough out.
I know the Rangers have been a mess (and there’s more to be sorted), but it’s sort of like the previous paragraph — they’ve got a few elite offensive guys, a Norris-winning defenceman and a goalie who’s one of the three best on the planet. They’ve also got a recent history of playoff success.
Yes, the Leafs are favourites against everyone not named Florida, but the Rangers — particularly if they add at the deadline, perhaps J.T. Miller? — would be a handful.
My core belief that elite difference-makers are what drags otherwise mediocre teams through should be evident by now, so yeah: David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand, Charlie MacAvoy and the resurgent Jeremy Swayman could cause problems.
Let’s call this what it is too: If you’re the Leafs, you’re not just playing the Bruins, you’re playing the ghosts, too. That might actually make this a more preferable matchup for the Leafs though, as Cup winners have often had to slay dragons of post-seasons past to go the distance, but there’s no doubt the fear of more awful history for the Leafs would loom.
7. New York Islanders
With the Isles being so far back there may be cries of bias here, but here’s the reality: they’ve got the best goalie of any of the teams you’re going to read about from here on. Ilya Sorokin is absolutely a name that could leave you in a post-series interview scratching your head going “…Yeah I guess we just ran into a hot goalie.”
Their D-corps has underachieved its ability greatly with three legitimately good pairs in Pelech–Pulock, Romanov–Dobson and Mayfield–George. If the Isles got hot and decided not to sell at the deadline, they’ve got enough veteran pluck (Brock Nelson, Anders Lee, Bo Horvat and Kyle Palmieri) to give you a series. Mat Barzal has the puck as much as anyone in the NHL. They’re not that far removed from a couple trips to the Eastern Conference Final, with many of the same players that pulled that off. Patrick Roy and those fans could get them some juice. I just don’t think it’s a great stylistic match-up for the Leafs (and as you read down, you’ll see it’s not exactly the 90’s Red Wings from here).
High “ghosts” risk here again. But more than that, when you look at a team’s record, and its roster, you’ll often get a twinge of “Geez, they’re not quite as good as their record” (Washington), or “Hmm, they’re actually pretty legit.” Montreal is the latter for me, as all four lines are decent, and none of their three pairs are an outright problem.
The return of Patrik Laine, the addition of Alexandre Carrier, the rise of Lane Hutson, and the good goaltending from Sam Montembault and Jakub Dobes have them all aboard the good vibes train.
Would the Leafs beat them? Quite likely. But good vibes, a hot goalie and ghosts? The disaster potential would be very real.
I think losing to Kyle Dubas in his second year with the Penguins, in the first round, would be enough to cost the Leafs one million fans forever, give or take. But Pittsburgh would have to get hot in the second half to get in, so you’d assume the Pens would have gotten some hot goaltending. Then I’ll say the obvious: You’d have to contain Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang and Erik Karlsson and hey why not, Michael Bunting.
Toronto is better at just about every position than Pittsburgh at this point. They should, would win even, you would think. But pressure does funny things to people.
Could we witness the rebirth of the Battle of Ontario? Whenever it is they eventually make the playoffs, I think the Sens will have to wheel in Brady Tkachuk like Hannibal Lecter to the opening faceoff to keep him from doing damage to everyone around him.
Along with the regional pressure, there’s also the fact that Linus Ullmark has the potential to get as hot as anyone, too. The Sens have speed and they work like hell. The Leafs at this point are a talented team full of veteran guys programmed to play a safer way than in years past. They should handle the Sens just fine. But Ottawa has enough top-end skill with their goalie to make any opponent nervous.
Yes, the Blue Jackets just beat the Leafs 5-1, and yes, all it did was confirm that they don’t have the roster to hang in over a seven-game series. Only five teams are getting worse goaltending on the season, and that tends to show up in the playoffs. But their offensive skill is young and inexperienced, and they’ve got holes on their back end.
The Blue Jackets have their organization going in the right direction, and that’s great. But I don’t think if you sat with their coaching staff for a couple pints in private tonight they’d say “Yes we’d have a chance against Toronto in a seven-game series.” Not yet, anyway.
The Wings are solid enough, something like Montreal, throughout their lineup. In fact, there’s no line or pair where you think “that group would get eaten alive.” But they just lack the game-breaking talent to hit the high notes that shine through when games get tight, and they get bottom-10 goaltending. I just can’t find a single spot where the Wings would have an advantage.
That said: Because they’re steady everywhere, and they’ve got a good coach who’s seeking players who are going to be a part of their solution, they’re going to win some games down the stretch. I wouldn’t be shocked if they made the playoffs. I just can’t see them winning more than a game were they to get there.
And finally,
Funny thing about this list: I don’t think any of these teams stink, Flyers included. There’s insane parity in the league right now.
Travis Konecny might make some shifts challenging, same with Matvei Michkov, but even he’s at the start of his learning curve. Travis Sanheim can only do so much, and this team is getting the worst goaltending in the NHL. To the credit of their GM and President, they know where they’re at, and they intend to be sellers. But they’re sniffing around the post-season as it is; were they to get in, I think it would be a short spring.
