Waking up after a 7-2 rout over the Philadelphia Flyers, the Toronto Maple Leafs find themselves first in the Atlantic Division not by straight points, but by way of the second tiebreaker, which is “Regulation/Overtime Wins” (with the first tiebreaker just being just Regulation Wins).
They’ve got a decent lead in that “ROW’ category, which could matter if the points and “RW” categories stay this close.
After those tiebreakers, seeding is decided by “total wins” then “points in head-to-head games” and finally “goal differential.”
Beneath these three teams, it looks unlikely that Ottawa can catch the pack, and instead remain in the Wild Card 1 spot. But nothing is guaranteed in this race, as the battle for the second wild card spot is impossibly tight, and a small slump could bring Ottawa back to the pack. Not that they’d miss the playoffs, but it’s not impossible they’ll end up in the second wild card spot:
As it stands, the likelihood that the Leafs will play the Senators in the first round is somewhere around 40 per cent, the odds they’ll face the Lightning just below that (roughly 35 per cent), and the odds of drawing the Panthers closer to 20 per cent. These are estimates based on a recent projection from Data Driven Hockey.
And so, let’s talk about it. With near certainty that Toronto’s first round opponent is going to be one of these three teams, where do they have the best chance? Why would they want to face each opponent, and why not?
Let’s dive in.
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Real Kyper and Bourne
Nick Kypreos and Justin Bourne talk all things hockey with some of the biggest names in the game. Watch live every weekday on Sportsnet and Sportsnet+ — or listen live on Sportsnet 590 The FAN — from 4 p.m. to 6 p.m. ET.
Despite what our resident Leafs fan Sam McKee says on the Real Kyper and Bourne show, Ottawa is — of the three teams we’re talking about here anyway — clearly the team the Leafs would most want in the first round. (McKee’s fear is that, were the Leafs to lose a series to Ottawa he couldn’t handle the public shaming, as opposed to the much more familiar “losing as underdogs to teams from the state of Florida.”)
Why the Leafs would want them: A big factor here would just be inexperience. The Senators only have a few players on their roster to have ever won the Stanley Cup, while obviously the Panthers and Lightning have very recently learned all the hard lessons. The Sens have an average age of about 1.5 years younger than the more experienced Florida teams.
Sens starting goalie Linus Ullmark has only played 10 playoff games, and has an .887 save percentage in those, with a 3-6-0 record. He can run hot and cold.
Down the lineup, the Sens aren’t particularly threatening (overall team scoring is low), they’ve got a few defencemen who can be had, and the edge in “top-end talent” would clearly go to the Leafs. Toronto would be favourites.
Why they wouldn’t: There’s no shortage of reasons here. For one, I mentioned that Ullmark can run hot and cold, well, the “hot” version of his game is certainly capable of outright stealing games. And he’s shown that form very recently.
I mentioned the Senators don’t score much, but they’re second last in the NHL in “actual to expected goals,” meaning they’ve probably had some terrible shooting percentage luck. They create more than they score, and goals should go in more regularly for them than they have. Prior to a recent skid, Ottawa opened March by scoring four or more goals in seven of eight games. The addition of Dylan Cozens has given them a more solid top-six.
Jake Sanderson and Thomas Chabot are elite skaters, and that’s a bit of a weakness for the Leafs, who are not an out-and-out fast team. Sanderson alone could give them fits.
And finally, there’s the whole vibes thing. Ottawa has turned its season around, and has a chance to get into the big dance – against their biggest rival – in what would be Brady Tkachuk’s first NHL playoff experience. You could see the emotion and energy from the group being through the roof. Not sure if you remember Brady at the 4 Nations, but few players are more terrifying when they’re all amped up. You don’t finish a seven-game series against that guy without any bruises, win or lose.
Final note: I think you’d see goaltending squarely in the crosshairs here, as the Sens’ energy and excitement would probably lead to both chances and mistakes, which puts the onus further on goaltenders to make Grade A saves.
This would be the third time in the Core Four era that the Leafs would open the playoffs versus Tampa Bay, going 1-1 so far. The Bolts have gone all the way back in on pushing for the Stanley Cup this season, and are loaded with gamers.
Why the Leafs would want them: Well, this is the only team the Leafs have beat in the first round, so they would at least have that previous success to draw on. The mystique of Andrei Vasilevskiy has somewhat been shattered over the years, as he’s shown himself to not be infallible.
Their seven defencemen include names like Moser, Perbix, Raddysh, and Lilleberg, who aren’t bad players by any stretch, but they aren’t loaded like recent Cup winners back there. You’d have to believe the Leafs could find enough soft spots to create some looks, which was a problem last year.
Plus, they’re just…not quite as mean as Florida. Tampa Bay is 28th in the league in hits (Florida is first, Ottawa fifth), and with Toronto’s reputation as not exactly super-gritty, a lower contact series probably works in their favour.
Why they wouldn’t want them: Yes, they may have a similar point total, but Tampa Bay bests Toronto in just about every statistical category. They score more, give up less, have a better PK, and they’re pretty much even on the PP. The Lightning have had a better team save percentage, shooting percentage, and a future Hall-of-Fame coach to boot.
Heck, they have Hall-of-Fame names who’ve won before across the lineup, with the belief they can do it again.
The Leafs may have cracked Vasilevskiy in the past, but he’s found his elite form again this season, and Tampa’s top forwards are having great years. Even aging veterans like Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh seem back to their (near) best.
Final note: It feels like “one more kick at the can, all in” time for the Lightning, which means they wouldn’t go quietly. Tough to see this series going less than seven.
Florida Panthers
Just a flashback, but this is the team that won the Stanley Cup last year, and so yes, they’d probably be the worst draw for the Leafs – and for maybe anyone in the league – in Round 1.
Why the Leafs would want them: I mentioned the “mystique” of Vasilevskiy, well, the whole Panthers team is maybe more mystique than substance when you pick through the lineup. In reality they’re “Team Intangibles,” which I think requires persevering in a lot of close games, and that’s a risky business. There are 16 teams that make the playoffs, and the Cats are between just ninth and 11th in goals for, against, PP, and PK, and so not exactly dominant anywhere outside “bodychecks.”
They don’t know if they’re going to have Matthew Tkachuk back in round one, and they haven’t been great without him. They’re also definitely without Aaron Ekblad for two games, which means their D corps includes an awful lot of Uvis Balinskis, Tobias Bjornfot and Nate Schmidt, to say nothing of Seth Jones, who’s struggled there so far.
Past those intangibles – the toughness and physical play, the experience, the success – there’s not as much there to say “this is a terrible matchup for the Leafs.”
Yes, Florida has proven big game players. But they’re also getting a lot of minutes from names like Mackie Samoskevish (26 points in 62 games) and Jesper Boqvist (23 points in 68 games).
Why the Leafs wouldn’t want them: “Yes, Florida has proven big game players.” We’re just gonna gloss over that, Bourne, while the Leafs are the team that’s shown, so far, they’ve got the opposite?
Sam Bennett centres that second line I just criticized, and he’s a big game bully. Their first line of Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart and Certer Verhaeghe is about as solid a line as the NHL has in 2025. And Gustav Forsling is a shutdown rock for them. Oh, and they may yet get Tkachuk back and – gasp – is that Brad Marchand’s music?
If Sergei Bobrovsky happens to be on his game by the time the puck drops on the playoffs, there’s no doubt he can take them on another run. We saw how they looked in a five-game series just a couple years ago, and Bobrovsky barely gave Toronto a sniff.
They are the definition of “gamers,” and that should terrify Leafs fans, or fans of anyone the Panthers face. If you believe in will over skill, Florida is the embodiment of the mantra.
The truth is, it’s the playoffs. You’ve taken the league’s 32 teams, shorn off the bottom 16, and now you’re competing against the best.
One thing I constantly remind myself of when looking at stats is that if a team is 10th in the league at something, they’re good at it. By the time that team gets to the playoffs, 10th makes them “below average” at it, by comparison. The point is, you’re not going to draw anyone bad, and you’re going to have to beat four good opponents anyway.
And so reading the above, I’m not sure there’s an easy way through the first round for the Leafs. Whoever it is, their goalies will have to be good, their top guys will have to score, and their special teams will have to be on point.
Yes, they’d have the best odds of winning against Ottawa. After that, it’s anyone’s guess. The best they can do is focus on claiming the division, play the Sens, and hope the Florida teams kick the crap out of each other on the way to round two.
