After electing only two players (David Ortiz and Scott Rolen) to the Baseball Hall of Fame from 2021 to 2023, the BBWAA course corrected last year, sending three players (Adrian Beltre, Todd Helton, and Joe Mauer) to Cooperstown. It was the most in a single cycle since 2019.
And 2025 could be a repeat, as two widely popular candidates make their first appearance on the ballot, and several holdovers from 2024 continue to gain support. That’s what the diligent and indispensable work of Ryan Thibodaux and his Hall of Fame tracking team has shown us via their tabulation of public and anonymous ballots ahead of voting results being announced on January 21.
As of Monday morning, Thibodaux and co. had logged 175 ballots in their 2025 Hall of Fame tracker, representing an estimated 44.6 per cent of the electorate. Utilizing their data, let’s look at who’s trending to get a plaque, who’s falling short but remaining on the ballot, and who’s in danger of dropping off.
Trending towards election
Ichiro Suzuki (100 per cent of known ballots)
CC Sabathia (93.1 per cent)
Billy Wagner (85.1 per cent)
The only question with regards to Suzuki’s candidacy is whether some clown will leave the ageless superstar off their ballot and prevent him from becoming the second player in MLB history — Mariano Rivera’s the other — to be unanimously elected in their first year of candidacy. With sports writers, you never know. Someone didn’t vote for Derek Jeter and three left Ken Griffey Jr. off their ballots. And none of them had the integrity to identify themselves and take accountability.
Anyway, Suzuki’s accomplishments fill literal books. Citing that the 10-time all-star and gold glover holds MLB’s single-season hits record and became the 30th player in league history with 3,000 hits despite debuting at 27 following a prolific NPB career is only scratching the surface. He and Babe may be the only two ballplayers in history known mononymously. Think we’ll ever see another 42-year-old hit .291 with a .354 OBP while playing above-average outfield defence over a 143-game season? Seems unrealistic.
Meanwhile, Sabathia is far from an inarguable case but is nevertheless trending towards election in his first year of eligibility. With nearly 62 career bWAR (more than 33 starters currently in Cooperstown), and as one of only 15 pitchers in MLB history to rack up 250 wins and 3,000 strikeouts (all but Roger Clemens and Justin Verlander are hall-of-famers), the bona fides are there. And they ought to only look better with time as the shape of starting pitching continues to shift.
Verlander may be the final pitcher to exceed both Sabathia’s career strikeout and win totals. And no one will ever again come anywhere close to his 38 complete games. Sabathia’s remarkable mix of longevity and productivity are testaments to his ability to adapt over time in a rapidly evolving sport. His case isn’t flawless, but it is easily defensible regardless of whether your perspective skews traditional or modern.
Finally, in his 10th and final year of ballot eligibility, Wagner appears poised to finally get over the hump and become the ninth reliever elected to the hall. After falling only five votes shy of the 75 per cent threshold last year, Wagner’s so far gained nine votes from returning voters and been selected by all 15 first-time voters. He needs to be named on two-thirds of the remaining ballots to finish above the cut-off line.
Truly, it’s about time. If Trevor Hoffman’s a Hall-of-Famer, a dominant reliever like Wagner, who has a strikeout rate 7.4 points higher and an ERA more than a half-run lower over a 900-inning career, ought to be too. It took a decade of persuasion and electorate turnover, but finally, enough voters have seen the light.
Trending to miss election and remain on the ballot
Carlos Beltran (80.6 per cent of known ballots)
Andruw Jones (72.6 per cent)
Chase Utley (53.1 per cent)
Alex Rodriguez (41.1 per cent)
Manny Ramirez (37.1 per cent)
Andy Pettitte (33.7 per cent)
Bobby Abreu (25.1 per cent)
Felix Hernandez (24.6 per cent)
Jimmy Rollins (21.7 per cent)
Dustin Pedroia (14.3 per cent)
Mark Buehrle (12.6 per cent)
David Wright (12 per cent)
Omar Vizquel (12 per cent)
Francisco Rodriguez (8 per cent)
Over a dozen players are tracking to earn the five per cent of votes necessary to remain on next winter’s ballot while falling short of the induction threshold.
Let’s start with Beltran, who’s trending to end up right around the 75 per cent threshold and could either be elected or miss election by a single-digit margin. It was a tough call to include him in this section rather than the one above. But voters who keep their ballots private have traditionally skewed heavily towards punishing players for perceived slights to the game, whether that be steroid-use suspicions, unethical behaviour within the lines, or controversy away from the field.
For Beltran, Houston’s 2017 sign-stealing scandal has remained fresh enough in voters’ minds to keep him from induction in his first two years on the ballot despite finishing his career with more hits than Mickey Mantle, more doubles than Willie Mays and Ken Griffey Jr., more homers and RBIs than Joe DiMaggio, and only two fewer stolen bases than Andre Dawson. And that’s all before getting into a more modern case based upon advanced statistics and the fact that Beltran’s 70.1 career bWAR is higher than 19 current hall-of-fame centre fielders.
Yet, as Beltran’s sign-stealing connection has faded further in the rearview, his vote share has increased. The nine-time all-star’s so far netted 20 votes from returning voters and needs to appear on 70.5 per cent of remaining ballots to be elected.
Will that be too tall a task considering those who don’t make their ballots public typically lean small hall? Possibly. And we’re betting here on Beltran narrowly missing election this year after falling 69 ballots shy in 2024. But Beltran’s election feels inevitable. And if it’s not this year, it’ll likely be next.
There’s also Andruw Jones, the perpetually underappreciated outfielder who’s gained support over the last several cycles as the ballot clog has eased. He’s netted nine votes from returning voters so far, cutting into the 52 votes he missed election by in 2024. But it appears he’ll need one final push in 2025 to clear the 75 per cent hurdle, which could be doable if enough voters come around on him in his final year on the ballot.
Six-time all-star and four-time Silver Slugger Chase Utley has much more room to make up, appearing on 53.1 per cent of known ballots this year. Utley’s case is a borderline one, but he’s netted a dozen votes from returning voters in his second year on the ballot and so far has been selected by nearly three-quarters of first-time voters. With substantial runway to continue making up ground, Utley has a decent shot of reaching 75 per cent in future cycles.
The same cannot be said of Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez, two players with undeniable statistical cases who continue to be punished by a portion of voters over their ties to performance-enhancing drug use.
The overwhelming majority of current voters appear firmly entrenched on one side or the other — Rodriguez has netted -2 votes this year, while Ramirez has netted -1. And considering they appear on only around half of ballots from new voters, it’s difficult to envision enough support emerging in coming years to overcome either player’s substantial deficit.
That goes for Pettitte, too, who’s experienced a surge this cycle, netting 20 votes in his seventh year on the ballot. Remember, Barry Bonds accumulated the second-most fWAR in the sport’s history and topped out at 66 per cent in his 10th year on the ballot. Public attitudes towards performance-enhancing drug use in sports are slowly progressing. But not nearly quick enough to help Rodriguez, who’s in his fourth year on the ballot, and Ramirez, who’s in his ninth.
Among first-timers on the ballot, only Dustin Pedroia and Felix Hernandez are positioned to stick around. But they each have vast expanses between their current vote shares and the 75 per cent threshold.
Trending to miss election and drop off the ballot
Russell Martin (4 per cent of known ballots)
Brian McCann (3.4 per cent)
Ian Kinsler (2.3 per cent)
Torii Hunter (1.7 per cent)
Curtis Granderson (0 per cent)
Carlos Gonzalez (0 per cent)
Adam Jones (0 per cent)
Hanley Ramirez (0 per cent)
Fernando Rodney (0 per cent)
Troy Tulowitzki (0 per cent)
Ben Zobrist (0 per cent)
Martin’s case is built on the underappreciated value of defence and receiving behind the plate, which modern pitch tracking has only recently allowed us to get better at quantifying. Not to mention the decreased weight today’s organizations place on offence from catchers, which has produced an environment in which precious few will ever get near the current hall-of-fame standard at the game’s most physically and mentally demanding position.
So far, among the 175 ballots we’re aware of so far, seven voters have agreed. That’s been enough to get Martin near the five per cent cut-off to remain on the ballot. But he’ll need around 13 more votes to survive, and considering that voters who keep their ballots private have typically been unreceptive to progressive arguments, it may be a bridge too far.
Hunter, meanwhile, has steadily hung out just north of the five per cent threshold in recent cycles, appearing on 5.3 per cent of ballots in 2022, 6.9 per cent in 2023, and 7.3 per cent in 2024. But he’s netted -4 votes from returning voters this year and hasn’t been selected by any first-timers. He’ll need to pick up 17 votes on unknown ballots to skate by again, but this may be the year he’s unable to do it.
Finally, there are no surprises among the players trending towards elimination from the ballot in their first year of eligibility: Curtis Granderson, Carlos Gonzalez, Adam Jones, Ian Kinsler, Brian McCann, Hanley Ramirez, Fernando Rodney, Troy Tulowitzki, and Ben Zobrist.
