Why it’s falling apart between Oilers and Andrew Mangiapane

The bread is stale.

Andrew Mangiapane is on the market, as the Edmonton Oilers try to recover from their second consecutive disastrous July 1.

For a team that’s made some very strong pick-ups along the way, nabbing Vasily Podkolzin, Jack Roslovic, Connor Ingram, Spencer Stastney or Alex Regula off waivers or in surprise deals, July 1 has been the Oilers’ kryptonite.

A year ago, prized free-agent signings Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson were both healthy scratches in some of the most important games of Edmonton’s Stanley Cup run. This season, the eight-year deal handed to Trent Frederic is thus far not handsome, while UFA signing Mangiapane has descended to the fourth line for Monday night’s game in Winnipeg.

On Monday, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported, with Mangiapane’s ice time plummeting, that the Oilers and Mangiapane are exploring a path to moving him to another organization, where there may be more opportunity or a larger role.

The two-year contract Mangiapane signed with Edmonton carries an average annual value (AAV) of $3.6 million, and has a full no-trade clause (NTC) that turns into a partial NTC (five teams) on June 16.

“I think there is an understanding there that if the Oilers could find something for Mangiapane with another team, where he might have a bigger role, he would be willing to waive (his NTC),” Friedman said on this week’s 32 Thoughts podcast. “If another situation can be found, I think Mangiapane would be willing to look at it.”

So, let’s dig on Mangiapane’s time in Edmonton, a 39-game sample where he has produced five goals, 11 points, and a team-worst minus-16. But before we give you our take, let’s look at what the coaching staff — namely head coach Kris Knoblauch’s usage of the player — is telling us.

Ice time and line placement never lie: coaches play players who will help them win. By the midpoint of a season players tend to settle into the spots they’ve earned, and while both Mangiapane and Frederic have seen time in the top six, the fact they are third- and fourth-liners tells us where the coaching staff has settled on them.

Here is the expected Oilers lineup Monday night in Winnipeg:

Nugent-Hopkins—McDavid—Hyman

Podkolzin—Draisaitl—Savoie

Frederic—Roslovic—Janmark/Jones

Mangiapane—Henrique—Lazar

Ekholm—Bouchard

Nurse—Stastney

Stillman—Emberson

Pickard

Mangiapane’s average ice time this season is 13:31 — ninth among Oiler forwards. Since Dec. 1, however, he ranks 10th at 11:35 per game, and Mangiapane has only 11 minutes of ice time three times in his last 10 games.

Do you see the trend here?

Signed as a middle-six forward, it was expected that Mangiapane would find a place next to one of Edmonton’s two elite centres as a productive top-six winger. Or, at worst, he would rediscover his annoying, irascible game and help chip in from the third line — perhaps opposite Frederic.

Edmonton banked on Mangiapane returning to the 45-point player he had been in his final three seasons as a Calgary Flame. Instead, it appears the real player is the 28-point winger who flamed out in Washington last season. Moving that player, at $3.6 million, will not be easy.

Now there’s a roster squeeze in Edmonton as players return from injury, with depth winger Kasperi Kapanen nearing a return. Down in AHL, Ike Howard and Quinn Hutson are both emerging as players who could help in Edmonton this season — and that changes the landscape somewhat as well.

So, how do you move Mangiapane, with one more year at $3.6 million left on his deal? If you’re lucky, you can do what the Los Angeles Kings did when they traded Phil Danault for a second-round pick, or the way Seattle traded Mason Marchment to Columbus for two picks. (Note: This scenario is highly unlikely.)

This trade more likely becomes a scenario where GM Stan Bowman identifies an overpaid, underperforming player elsewhere whose skills he could use. Like, a bigger, more physical depth winger making similar money. Or an experienced depth defenceman who is making too much on a team that might need help up front.

Bowman would likely settle for gaining a little bit of cap space this season in any move, or at least removing Mangiapane’s cap hit from next season’s cap.

But there is no fooling someone into taking the player, thinking they’re getting the guy who scored 35 goals for Calgary four seasons ago. He isn’t that guy anymore, who incites the opposition and plays with that edgy passion.

Mangiapane is on a two-year run of ineffective play, and his decline is well known across the National Hockey League.

If only it had been that well known in the Oilers’ front offices last summer.