Why Japan’s greatest asset makes them dangerous foes for U.S. in WBC final

Stereotypes held by outsiders about Japanese baseball players have slowly eroded as more and more players have made an impact at the MLB level.

Hideki Matsui demonstrated NPB was capable of producing true sluggers, Yu Darvish’s physical presence and power arm ran in contrast to many of the pitchability starters the country produced before, and Shohei Ohtani has broken every mold imaginable.

Although assumptions about what type of individual players Japan produces have become outdated, it doesn’t mean the country doesn’t have a consistent on-field identity.

The world’s most successful World Baseball Classic participant has a reputation for commanding the strike zone on both sides of the ball, with disciplined hitters and pitchers who possess top-notch command.

That’s been Japan’s greatest asset in the 2023 WBC, and it’s what makes them such a dangerous foe for the United States on Tuesday, a game that can be seen on Sportsnet on SN NOW starting at 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT.

The Japanese lineup has a 1.10 BB/K ratio in this tournament, with twice as many walks (56) as the Americans (28). No other country has walked more than it’s struck out, and the nation with the next best BB/K to escape the group stage is Cuba (0.71). The U.S. sits at 0.60 — eighth in the tournament.

To put the importance of that number in perspective, here are the top-10 teams in MLB by BB/K last season, and how they ranked in the all-around offensive metric wRC+.

It’s not a perfect correlation, but if you are drawing walks and avoiding strikeouts, there’s a good chance you’ve got yourself a strong offence. By earning free passes and putting the ball in play, Japan has produced 123 base runners in six games – 26 more than the United States, who have the second-most in the tournament.

Japan’s ability to get walks and strikeouts tilted in its favour is even more impressive on the pitching side. The two-time WBC champs have conceded a tournament-low seven walks despite playing two more games than most of the participants and striking out 14 more hitters than any other team.

The resulting 10.29 K/9 is nothing short of ridiculous. For a frame of reference, there have been 1,759 qualified pitcher seasons in MLB since 2000, and only one pitcher has topped it (Phil Hughes, in 2014).

If we do the same exercise as we did with the hitter BB/K, we get another snapshot of the link between dominating the strike zone and keeping runs off the board.

Japan’s team ERA of 2.33 in this tournament meshes with the intuitive idea that preventing the ball from getting into play and staying away from bases on balls is a direct route to pitching success.

In large part due to their gaudy K/BB, the Japanese have conceded only 49 base runners in 54 WBC innings. Meanwhile, the Americans have allowed 64 in 52 frames on the way to a 4.33 ERA.

None of this is to suggest that Japan is a lock to bring its third World Baseball Classic title home on Tuesday night. The United States has a few edges, like raw power and a rested bullpen.

Japan’s unparalleled command of the strike zone is a potent weapon, though. It’s helped them generate 2.57 times as many base runners as they’ve allowed in this tournament, while the United States sits at 1.51 by the same measure.  

If that advantage holds up on Tuesday night, the United States will have a hard time avoiding a loss on home soil.

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