The Vancouver Canucks’ off-season came and went without a new contract for Elias Pettersson. The star centre, whose 102 points last season were 10th most in the NHL, told Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman last month that he is “not in a rush to sign” and focused on starting strong.
“I still don’t know myself if it’s going to be a short-term or a long-term (contract),” said Pettersson, whose three-year bridge deal expires next summer.
One thing is certain: Pettersson’s next contract will likely make him one of the richest players in the league. An eight-figure salary is absolutely in play. (If that were to happen, Pettersson would join Auston Matthews, Nathan MacKinnon, Connor McDavid, John Tavares, Jack Eichel and Aleksander Barkov as the centres with cap hits of at least $10 million in 2024-25.)
Pettersson possesses elite ability on both ends of the ice. Offensively, his point totals provide more than enough proof. At 5-on-5, where Pettersson racked up 56 of his points last season, he ranked 29th out of 382 forwards (minimum 500 minutes) with 8.63 offence-generating plays per 20 minutes. That figure includes shots on net from the slot and passes to that section of the ice, among other plays that typically lead to scoring chances.
Pettersson certainly had some good fortune last season; Vancouver scored 18.9 more goals than expected at 5-on-5 when he was on the ice, the sixth-best mark among forwards. For instance, it helped that linemate Andrei Kuzmenko scored on 11.4 per cent of his 5-on-5 shot attempts in his debut season, a feat that might not be repeatable.
Pettersson, though, has the profile of a player who can defy regression. Over the past three years, Pettersson ranks in the 95th percentile of all forwards when weighing his performance in several key areas:
For the first time in his career, Pettersson received recognition for his off-the-puck play when he finished seventh in voting for the Selke Trophy last season. Pettersson has been a sneaky good defender over his five years in the league, but he took that part of his game to another level in 2022-23.
Pettersson was incredibly effective with his stick, blocking 1.89 passes per 20 in the defensive zone at 5-on-5, which placed him sixth among qualified forwards. Overall, he blocked 4.2 passes per 20, which ranked 10th, and his 1.09 blocked shots were 11th most. Now that perennial Selke winner Patrice Bergeron has retired, Pettersson has a chance to claim the title of top defensive forward.
Friedman said on a recent episode of the 32 Thoughts podcast that Pettersson “wants to make sure that he feels everything (in Vancouver) is going in the right direction” before committing to the Canucks.
Vancouver has missed the playoffs in four of Pettersson’s five seasons, but went 20-12-4 after Rick Tocchet replaced Bruce Boudreau as coach. The Canucks’ defence improved significantly under Tocchet, allowing 1.75 expected goals against per game at 5-on-5 from Jan. 24 through the end of the regular season — tied for fifth in the league over that span. (They ranked 29th under Boudreau at 2.18 XGA per game.)
A lot rests on the young Swede’s shoulders as he and the Canucks enter what feels like a make-or-break season for the franchise. History shows that Pettersson is up to the task, which should lead to a substantial pay bump.
