Why the first NHL teams to go into sell mode will win the trade deadline

A glance at the NHL standings reveals two things: There are a lot of teams that are either:

A) Fooling themselves, or

B) Not fooling themselves but trying to fool their fans.

I say “fooling themselves” because what do GMs of just about every NHL team tell us their goals are? It’s to win the Stanley Cup, isn’t it? And yet there has to be a dozen teams that are pointing to the standings and saying “We couldn’t possibly trade players for future assets, we’re within five points of the playoffs!” while having no viable shot at the Stanley Cup. And I mean none, nada, no shot whatsoever. 

Of course, they’d like fans to keep buying tickets and going to the games, believing the team is still in the hunt. And if you’re those front offices, you’re justifying that to yourself by saying “Let’s just hang on a month more, and we can make these same trades closer to the trade deadline.” They want to have their cake and eat it, too. 

That will be possible for those holding high-end assets (Calgary?), but there aren’t many of those teams or players. Mostly, it’s teams saying “I hope we can turn our third-liner on an expiring contract into a top pick.”

Looking at the standings, I’m not sure they’re all considering the pretty simple laws of supply and demand, or what the trade market is going to look like after the Olympic break. Because I hate to break all their hearts, but go have a look at the standings, and ask yourself “How many of these teams are good enough to be legitimate buyers?” There aren’t many. 

Even if you can squint and get yourself as high as a dozen, that still leaves 20 teams that may want to sell, and if they’ve each got three contracts they’d like to flip for assets, suddenly there’s 60 guys available for the 12 teams to pick from. 

Even if it’s a much smaller number, the math isn’t in the sellers’ favour. Good luck getting a half-decent return on anyone in a flooded market.

As of today, Pittsburgh is in the second wild card spot with 49 points. Each of the seven teams below them is above a .500 points percentage and within four points of catching the Penguins (only Columbus is farther back at a whopping six points out). Several of those teams know they’re not good enough to win the Cup this year, so the idea of becoming a buyer and spending assets to get better would border on intentional mismanagement. 

If they do buy, it will be a token fringe piece to take to their players and fans, silly half-measures more for symbolism than tangible gain while they head like lambs to the slaughter in the playoffs. That’s the type of directionless move that mires teams in the middle for years, but it’s the easier choice that wins some short-term pats on the back.

I know front offices have other considerations (namely keeping the fans happy), I’m just not convinced those fans are so gullible. They can handle some bitter medicine if it helps the team get better.

If there’s going to be 20 teams that may sell at once, the market will reward the first teams with the honesty (and cajónes!) to come out and say “We’re continuing to build towards our ultimate goal” which would be admitting “this year ain’t it.” And it’s OK when this year ain’t it. Fans today are smart. At that point, you’re talking about sincere management, which looks like an honest effort to win a Cup and not just spin for ticket sales. 

The great irony in this is the best thing for ticket sales is winning — legitimately contending for a Stanley Cup — so in a way standing up and selling today as a mid-table team would be like nutritious food: maybe not as satisfying in the moment but the best thing for the long-term health of your franchise. You beat the rush and you find the best fits for your players when the buyers have little leverage while few other teams are selling.

The other side of this is that if you’re a team in the cluster-muck of the mushy middle right now and you sincerely believe your team is better than the results to date (maybe Ottawa or Florida), the earlier you can make a trade to improve, the more you’ll be able to reap those rewards, climb the standings and improve your chances of giving your fans a season to remember. 

You can sell two things: hope and winning. Moving early helps both teams establish one of the two. 

If you want to get better, waiting until the trade deadline in March, just five weeks before the end of the regular season, is a feeble push. It takes a second for players to get their feet under them with a new team, so by the time you’re really seeing gains, you’ve run out of racetrack. 

You can see this dance happening around the league right now, where teams don’t want to sell while “still in it.” So, a quick reminder of how it can look.

In 2017 the St. Louis Blues were in a tight Central Division race, but GM Doug Armstrong chose to make the hard decision and traded pending UFA Kevin Shattenkirk to Washington rather than lose him for nothing in the off-season. They got back Zach Sanford, Brad Malone, and a 2017 first-round pick. In 2018 they were just two points out of a wild card spot, but rather than lose Paul Stastny as a UFA Armstrong traded him to Winnipeg. In return, he got back a first-round draft pick, a fourth, and a prospect. In 2019, without Shattenkirk or Stastny, the Blues won the Stanley Cup. 

Armstrong recognized what he thought they were — not ready to win the Cup in a market where you can’t let legitimate assets leave for nothing — and he did the hard things. Nine years after the Shattenkirk trade and eight after the Stastny swap he’s still the GM, they’ve got a Cup, and they’ve got all their first-round picks to go with seven selections in this upcoming draft. He’s managed their assets well, thanks to having the fortitude to make hard decisions, and they’ve reached the playoffs five of the seven years since making those moves.

Perhaps he’ll be one of this season’s early movers and recognize what the Blues really are this year. Maybe the Rangers make that call, or New Jersey, Boston, Toronto, or even Pittsburgh, who are actually in a playoff spot (they won’t sell because of Sid, but they should). They Sabres aren’t Cup contenders either, but can’t deny their fans the chance at just getting in. All of San Jose, Anaheim, Los Angeles are fringe teams that could step back for a year and try to load up, given they’ve got no shot against the best in the West. Is Utah sincere about their Cup hopes this season? What about Seattle? 

Boy, everyone is “in it,” but who’s really in it?

Let’s bring it back to NHL front offices today, and this year’s mucky, murky, mid-as-hell standings, and note that they should be asking themselves: Are we likely to be selling in a month? And if so, could we benefit from doing so now, before everyone else is trying to do the same thing? At the same time, the GMs of the real contenders should be making the push to do something now and pull away from the pack.

We’re officially in trade season, and the bizarre NHL standings should lead to some assertive action from GMs around the league. If you don’t move now, there’s almost no point in moving two months hence.

Let’s see who’s making nutritious, long-term decisions for their franchises, and who can’t let go of the holiday sugar.

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