Let’s talk about the upcoming off-season for the Toronto Maple Leafs by first talking about the Washington Capitals (and the Nashville Predators).
After the 2022-23 NHL season was completed, the Caps had failed to make the post-season. The next year, 2023-24, they limped in on a tiebreaker, then promptly got swept by the Rangers. Their core was old and getting older.
Then in the 2024 off-season, they got weird.
They acquired Pierre Luc-Dubois in a trade from the Kings. They acquired Logan Thompson in a trade from Vegas. They acquired Andrew Mangiapane (again in a trade) from the Flames. The acquired Jakob Chychrun in a – stop me if you’ve heard this before – trade, shoring up their defence. They traded for Lars Eller, and they traded for Anthony Beauvillier.
And then they got 20 points better in the standings, won the Metro, the East, and threatened for the Presidents’ Trophy. Maybe they didn’t win the Cup, but given where they were coming from and seemed to be headed, nobody would push back on the idea that Washington found creative ways to get better. The bulk of it came from trades, along with internal improvement and a couple signings.
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To stay on the theme of creativity, the St. Louis Blues used offer sheets to find their own improvement during that same summer.
When I say the Capitals made “a couple signings,” that’s an important note because they knew they had to get better, they looked at the available UFAs, and didn’t see what they needed. Matt Roy ended up being a good UFA addition, but after that none of their UFA signings made even $2 million. They were fringe guys.
Meanwhile, the Nashville Predators threw bags of money at the best available UFAs – Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault, Brady Skjei – and promptly got worse. They got big names, but no value.
So back to the Leafs.
What seems to be the dominant conversation around them right now is, “Do you keep Mitch Marner and/or John Tavares? And if you don’t, how do you get better?”
Brad Treliving spoke for nearly an hour on Thursday, and in that press conference he said something everyone having this conversation already knows: If Marner leaves there’s no one UFA you can then give that money to who can just outright replace him. You’re talking about one of the NHL’s elite talents who plays over 21 minutes per game.
A quick note on Marner and the Leafs: Video games, and particularly role-playing video games, have long had checkpoints or save points or whatever it is you want to call the places your character respawns when they lose one of their lives.
Well, that’s what Marner’s been for the Leafs and it’s precisely what they will be losing if he walks away in free agency. He was their playoff save point, the place from which we’d judge the success or failure of each season. You just knew they’d get back there. Regardless of what else the Leafs had going on in the regular season, Marner would have them back to that save point, where … we don’t need to rehash much except to say it hasn’t worked for him (for almost all of them) in the meaningful games.
But there was some comfort knowing that when the team would fall off the latest floating platform and into the fire, they’d get back to where they just fell from the following season.
And so now the off-season questions are two-fold: can you change the Leafs’ “DNA” and find those type of playoff performers who can help you get through the post-season? And, can you make sure you replace enough of what Marner brought in the regular season to ensure you’re still one of the Eastern Conference’s eight best regular season teams?
I’ve heard people say “How can you replace the 175 points Marner and Tavares brought,” which is a question I don’t particularly care for, because it gets a few things wrong. For one, you’re not replacing their past points, you’re replacing what they’ll get next year, and I’d bet a good sum against Tavares scoring 38 goals and getting 74 points again, and Marner had an “everything goes perfect” type season. So you’re probably looking at them being, say, 160 points at best. And you’ve got their $22 million to find it with.
That also assumes you need the same offensive output to have success. In goals for, the Oilers finished 11th (eight goals fewer than the Leafs) and the Florida Panthers finished 15th (21 fewer than Toronto). You don’t necessarily need to get back to the exact offensive output to be a better playoff-ready team.
As the Leafs consider all options, which includes figuring out how to use that $22 million in cap space to replace two important pieces, it’s pretty clear that Treliving is right: there aren’t readily available UFA options who’ll ensure they get back to that previous save point. For all the Sam Bennett talk, it sounds like his price tag won’t be cheap, and he just had a career high 51 points, plus he turns 29 in a few weeks. Players don’t tend to get more physical as they age, it’s usually the opposite.
So if he becomes a mid-40-point guy (and maybe a slightly less physical version of himself as the years go on), $8 or $9 million a season isn’t going to feel great. That shouldn’t read as disrespect about what Bennett is today, which is one of his generation’s most important playoff performers and a guy who the Leafs would love to have right now. Rather, it should read as a projection and a word of caution about solving the removal of true stars. It should read as a word of caution about going the Nashville route.
What concerns me more than anything is that Bennett had his second-highest average time on ice season of his career this year, and it was…17:27 (almost four fewer nightly minutes per game than Marner). Bennett gets a lot of press for a guy who isn’t used like a top-line player.
This is where signing Bennett can work though: if it’s not a super punishing contract, and they don’t simultaneously swing at other more desired UFA players, but instead get creative a la Washington and St. Louis.
Now, you can’t write this article without acknowledging one challenge here: the Leafs are hardly rich in assets. They’re light on draft picks (they have no firsts the next three years, but they do have 16 picks among a possible 18 after that) which can make the idea of an offer sheet hard. And, they’re light on prospects, so you’re mostly looking at “Can you trade some imperfect fit players who Craig Berube doesn’t love for guys who suit the team better?”
Thanks to bonus payments coming next month, deals to Max Domi, Calle Jarnkrok, and David Kampf are close to plus-asset contracts (or at least neutral) that could be moved. And while we said Toronto has few picks and prospects, that doesn’t mean they don’t have any at all. It’s not impossible that they could justify moving what they do have left (a couple well-regarded goalie prospects at a time their net is pretty solidified, for example).
What might be the most important point from the “Leafs need to get creative” message here: this is not an exercise an analyst or fan can take with any accuracy or authority, because we simply don’t know who’s available or why. It’s a fool’s errand. We can’t know the wants and desires of every team or the 700-plus players around the league because we’re not privy to that information. Until you place those phone calls to 31 other GMs and see where they’re at on their respective guys, we’re just throwing darts. Behind the scenes, teams and players might be trying to get fresh starts elsewhere.
I do like some of the UFAs out there. I like Nikolaj Ehlers. I like Trent Frederic as a depth guy (age, aggression, and output are promising in a bottom-six when he’s healthy). Aaron Ekblad would be a great add, and Brad Marchand at a reasonable deal would, of course, appeal. But bring in more than one of these guys and you risk doing what Nashville did last season, making the big splash but just ending up all wet.
The Leafs have to get creative.
It just won’t be “lose Marner and/or Tavares, sign UFAs, get better.” It almost can’t be that. But there are solutions out there, and the pressure on the front office now is to find ways to solve what looks like sizeable challenges.
Their playoff checkpoint is very likely gone. And the goal isn’t to just to get back there, it’s to push beyond.
