Will any player be able to challenge Alex Ovechkin’s goals record?

For 31 years, Wayne Gretzky held the crown as the best goal-scorer in the NHL, a mark that was largely viewed as untouchable until Alex Ovechkin made a run and completed the historic chase last weekend.

When Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman asked Ovechkin about possibly breaking Gretzky’s record in 2016, he wouldn’t entertain the possibility.

“Impossible to catch Gretzky?” Friedman asked.

“It’s impossible,” Ovechkin said in response.

However, Friedman was pushing the idea more, “You could challenge him, you might be able to do it—”

“No,” Ovechkin interjected. “I have to have six seasons of 50 goals, I don’t know if I’m going to be able to skate in six seasons.”

At that point, Ovechkin had 525 goals in 839 career games and was coming off his third-straight 50-goal campaign.

As the years went along, Ovechkin’s belief started to change, and despite the COVID-19 pandemic putting a pause on hockey and his chase, the Russian star remained determined to get back on track.

This season, Ovechkin is scoring at a 0.69 goals-per-game pace, his best mark since the 2019-20 season, when he had a 0.71 goals-per-game pace. Even more impressive, the 39-year-old didn’t let a 16-game absence from a fractured fibula slow him down.

While it’s certain that Ovechkin will add to his total with one year left on his contract after this season, it’s not clear whether he will try to extend his NHL career beyond that, or decide it’s the right time to retire from the NHL.

How high can Ovechkin go from here? And will he reign atop the NHL’s all-time goal scoring list for as long as Gretzky did, or will anyone be able to challenge him in the near future?

Let’s take a look at whether any of the active goal-scoring leaders in the league will challenge Ovechkin.

Why Auston Matthews is the most realistic challenger

Ovechkin has owned the Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy during his career with nine goal-scoring titles to his name. However, over the last four years, Matthews has earned three Rockey Richard Trophies.

It didn’t take long for many to point to the Toronto Maple Leafs captain as the next challenger for the goal-scoring mark, but he was not willing to put himself in that conversation.

“That’s such a long way away or such a long way to go,” Matthews said after practice Monday. “And, you know, I don’t even think I should be in that conversation.

“I mean, this guy just broke the record. I’m so far away from that, and I don’t think that should be a focus on myself. I mean, it should be on Ovi, and rightfully so. It should be on Ovi, and what he’s been able to accomplish in his career, and obviously this record being one of them.”

It’s a respectable comment from Matthews, considering Ovechkin’s total will continue to go up as long as he plays.

However, the Leafs’ sniper is selling himself short if he doesn’t think he can challenge the mark. He is only two goals away from scoring 400 in his career, a mark that Ovechkin took 634 games to accomplish, while Matthews has played in 623 career games.

Matthews has not only been the most productive goal scorer since entering the league in 2016, but his current goal-scoring pace has him among some of the top goal scorers of all time.

There’s no denying that Matthews has the ability to challenge Ovechkin thanks to a pair of 60-plus goal scoring seasons, but there is one hurdle that he would have to overcome.

Staying healthy.

Durability has been an issue for Matthews throughout his career, missing 71 games spread across nine seasons. That’s a significant amount of time missed, considering how many goals Matthews could have had over that time.

If we take his career goals-per-game pace of 0.64 and apply that to the number of games that he has missed, we’re looking at about 45 goals that Matthews could have added to his total.

But Ovechkin has also had a bit of luck go against him at points throughout his career. His NHL debut was delayed by a year because of the 2004-05 lockout, the lockout in 2012-13 shortened that season to 48 games, and the pandemic cut the 2019-20 season short and was followed by a 56-game season in 2021.

If Matthews continued to score at the pace he’s currently on, he would need roughly 778 more games to reach 896 goals. That means Matthews would need to play at least another 10 seasons before he really gets into this conversation — and since Ovechkin is still adding to his total, Matthews’ climb will have to continue from there.

Can the Oilers duo enter the conversation?

Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are no strangers to scoring goals, but the route for them doesn’t hold the same potential as Matthews’.

Let’s start with Draisaitl, who got off to a slow start in his career but has seen a massive uptick in production since the 2018-19 season. Right now, the Oilers forward has scored 399 goals, which puts him 496 goals away from Ovechkin’s current mark.

At his 0.51 goals-per-game pace, he’ll need to play around 975 more NHL games to reach Ovechkin’s current mark. That doesn’t consider how many more goals Ovechkin adds to his total, so the more goals he scores, the longer Draisaitl will need to play.

The 29-year-old has played 790 career games and hasn’t dealt with many injuries, but he’s already behind the pace. However, he has scored at a 0.62 goals-per-game pace since the 2019-20 season, which helps his chances, but unless he plans to play and continue to score at that rate for another 900 games and Ovechkin retires soon, it still might not be enough.

Like Draisaitl, McDavid finds himself in a tough position to challenge Ovechkin because he hasn’t scored at the same pace as those top goal-getters, with 361 goals through 708 career games. The Oilers captain has scored at a 0.51 goals-per-game pace during his career, even with his 64-goal season back in 2022-23, but he’s followed that up with 32 and 26 goals (currently).

For McDavid, the real question will be about where he finishes on the NHL’s all-time points list. Catching Gretzky is probably impossible, but maybe he can get close and finish No. 2 all-time. That’s an article for another day, however.

Pastrnak faces similar uphill battle

When you look at David Pastrnak‘s career he’s been a valuable contributor for the Boston Bruins with a respectable 0.52 career goals-per-game average. The 61-goal season that he had in 2022-23 showed his potential as a top goal scorer in the league but that was the only season where he’s scored over 50 in his career.

In 753 career games, he’s scored 389 goals which puts Pastrnak off the pace of the other contenders but when his career is over, he should be in a good position unless the Bruins’ retool impacts his production.

Any contenders down the road

While there might not be many active players capable of challenging Ovechkin’s record, there is always an influx of talent that could one day try to put themselves in the conversation.

When Connor Bedard was coming into the NHL, he was touted as the “Next One” after scoring 71 goals and 143 points in 57 games during his draft year. But it’s been a slow start to his career, partly due to the fact he’s on a Chicago Blackhawks team that lacks talent to support him. With 42 goals scored through his first 146 NHL games, it’s far too early to say if Bedard could one day make a charge or not, but unless he starts to break out with some stellar goal scoring seasons soon, his pace could fall off enough to make it unlikely.

Then you have the potential for players waiting to enter the league.

Let’s start with this upcoming draft, where Michael Misa has put himself in the conversation as a top-three pick. The Saginaw forward had an impressive season with 62 goals and 134 points in 65 games, and Central Scouting used Steven Stamkos as an NHL comparable.

Can Misa bring that kind of goal-scoring production to the NHL? There is a reason the Oakville, Ont., native was one of four players in the OHL granted exceptional status.

Then there is the 2026 NHL Draft, where WHL phenom Gavin McKenna is already turning heads. He recorded 41 goals and 129 points through 56 games, but his 45-game point streak had everyone talking.

During that 45-game stretch, he produced 34 goals and 116 points, which put him in rare company. Sportsnet’s Jason Bukala broke down McKenna’s scoring prowess and how aggressive he is at getting pucks on net between the faceoff circles.

You certainly have to be cautious when looking at production from a player during his junior career and assume that it will translate to success in the NHL, and very few players will ever have a career that could rival Ovechkin’s, but there is some exciting talent as part of the next wave of prospects set to make the jump.

Ovechkin is the new record holder and he will hold that for a long time into the future yet, with 900-plus goal on the horizon. Will he one day reach 1,000 goals? Will he retire after next season?

The more goals Ovechkin scores from here, the tougher the math gets for anyone else to catch him in the future.

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