TORONTO – Pitching at triple-A Buffalo Friday night, Shane Bieber went seven scoreless innings while building up to 90 pitches in what might be his final rehab outing before returning to the MLB level.
The recently traded right-hander has now completed three rehab starts at the highest level of the minors, boosting his pitch count a little higher each time. He has also exhausted his 30-day rehab window, leaving the Blue Jays with two options: add him to the active roster or extend his rehab work using one of three 10-day extensions allowed under MLB’s collective bargaining agreement.
“Hopefully the first one,” manager John Schneider said from his office at Rogers Centre Friday afternoon.
Based on what Bieber said in Buffalo afterwards, he appears to be ready if and when the Blue Jays need him. He was set to join the major-league team in Toronto late Friday night, and before long, the coaching staff will finalize a plan for a Blue Jays debut that could come as soon as Wednesday against the Pirates or Friday against the Marlins.
Of course, adding someone to the starting rotation has implications for current starters Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer and Eric Lauer – and while it’s the ultimate good-problem-to-have, the time is coming for the Blue Jays to resolve it. Already, Schneider has spoken with his existing rotation about what might happen when Bieber arrives, so everyone understands change of some kind is coming.
“We’ve talked to these guys multiple times already,” Schneider said. “You have to see where we are in that when that time arrives. So it’ll depend on what our starters have done, what our bullpen’s like. We have multiple plans in place, to see where everyone is (as far as) workload, health (and) stuff like that. They’re all aware of it.”
While Schneider didn’t elaborate on what those multiple plans are, we can at least take an educated guess at what the options might be. Here are three of the scenarios that could be under consideration for the Blue Jays:
Someone needs a break
The Blue Jays wouldn’t be at this point unless their rotation had stayed far healthier than most, but three-quarters of the way through a long season, it’s possible someone could use this chance to rest a nagging issue on the injured list. If that’s the case, now would be the time to speak up – yet based on the players’ public comments, the starters are all healthy.
Plus, taking a break right now would interrupt the rhythm the pitchers have established so far while also demanding a ramp-up in the weeks to come. Barring a surprise, this isn’t the path the Blue Jays appear likely to choose.
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Someone goes to the bullpen
In theory, the Blue Jays could move one of their starters to the bullpen – at least temporarily. This could be framed as skipping a start, or a temporary change in role, but the end result would leave the Blue Jays with the same five-starter, eight-reliever configuration they’ve had all year.
Given the stature and 2025 effectiveness of Scherzer, Berrios, Bassitt, and Gausman, it’s hard to fathom asking one of them to move to the bullpen with so much of the season remaining. Not only are those pitchers huge reasons the Blue Jays have gotten this far, they’re also leaders on the team behind the scenes.
That leaves Eric Lauer, who has done nothing to deserve a demotion. The left-hander has a 2.82 ERA in 83 innings this year, mostly as a starting pitcher, emerging as an unsung hero on this team after signing a minor-league deal over the winter.
Few teams this side of the Phillies or Dodgers have enough pitching to even consider removing Lauer from their rotations, but until the Blue Jays commit to a six-man rotation, this possibility can’t be ruled out fully. Pitching Saturday against the Rangers, Lauer can perhaps improve his chances of staying in the rotation by covering lots of innings and keeping the team’s relievers fresh.
Roll with a six-man rotation
While it’s not without its complications, there’s something to be said for the idea of a temporary six-man rotation.
“I’m usually against it, but this time of year, any excuse to kind of give a guy an extra day I think, you do it,” Kevin Gausman told colleague David Singh this week. “If you’re going to do that, you really have to let (the pitchers) go. You’ve got to let them go over 100 pitches a little bit more often, knowing that you’re going to have one less bullpen guy.”
The Blue Jays have a day off each of the next four weeks, meaning “if we go to a six man, it’s essentially going to be more like seven-man with all the off days, which I think at this time of year, is never a bad thing.”
In that scenario, the Blue Jays would have just seven relievers until September 1, when an eighth reliever can again be added. While it’s unclear who would be demoted under those circumstances, right-hander Tommy Nance is out of options, and optioning left-hander Mason Fluharty would leave Schneider with just one lefty late in games.
It wouldn’t be ideal for the bullpen, but might still make the most sense for the staff as a whole – especially if the Blue Jays don’t over-exert their bullpen in this current series against the Rangers.
Further complicating matters, the more starters a team adds, the less often their best pitchers pitch. Considering the potential advantage of winning a first-round bye, every edge must be pursued even if the division lead appears comfortable enough as of Saturday morning. Now the Blue Jays must weigh the advantage of rest against the disadvantage of using your best arms less frequently.
As Gausman said: “There’s still a lot of ifs.” And soon enough, those ‘ifs’ will have to give way to a concrete plan.
