OTTAWA — Everyone in their life has had to move from Plan A to Plan B. Now, it’s the Ottawa Senators‘ turn.
With Linus Ullmark being shelved “week-to-week” with a back injury, Senators general manager Steve Staios must change course to find a suitable replacement in the meantime.
Staios’ bet in acquiring and then extending Ullmark to a four-year, $33 million contract was working after a bumpy start. Ullmark was great, not-so-good and then a saviour in his first 23 games for the Senators.
The one hitch in Staios’ wager on Ullmark was that the former Vezina trophy winner had not been given the reins as a No. 1 goaltender, never playing more than 49 games in a season.
The 31-year-old Ullmark has now been injured three times this season with various ailments. After a nine-game stretch in which he was stopping everything in sight and led to the Senators to an 8-0-1 record, he tweaked his back in his next start against the Edmonton Oilers.
Since Ullmark’s most recent injury, the Senators have gone 1-4-0. And the rest of the Eastern Conference has caught up, with Pittsburgh squeaking past Ottawa for the final wild-card spot, while Montreal and Detroit have roared back to within a couple points.
The Senators currently own the 16th-best save percentage in the NHL, which would be their best ranking in that department since 2017 — when they last made the playoffs. Much of that is due to Ullmark, who posted a .915 save percentage while also having the 13th-best goals saved above expected at 9.2, according to MoneyPuck.com.
In comparison, 22-year-old Leevi Merilainen has been fine, considering the circumstances, with an .884 save percentage, but carries only six games of NHL experience. Meanwhile, Anton Forsberg is coming off an injury but has been below average, posting an .885 save percentage with the 27th-worst goals saved above expected in the NHL at minus-2.9, according to MoneyPuck. Merilainen has looked better than Forsberg of late and should be the netminder of choice unless his play dips. Regardless, that level of goaltending won’t do the trick, no matter how well the Senators play in front of their netminders.
And so Staios must add a goaltender — and quick. Last time the Senators were even sniffing a playoff spot, in the 2022-23 season, then-GM Pierre Dorion did not acquire a goaltender at the deadline, instead choosing to rely on a 22-year-old Mads Sogaard, who faltered down the stretch. That can’t happen again. Staios’ team has done enough to be given a boost.
Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman and Kyle Bukauskas spoke about potential options for the Senators on Monday’s 32 Thoughts podcast. The first name they brought up was Anaheim Ducks netminder John Gibson. Like Ullmark, Gibson has been plagued by injuries in his career; otherwise, he may be a perfect fit for Ottawa. He has a .914 save percentage this season and has two years left at a $6.4 million AAV on his contract. The Senators currently have $2.514 million in cap space, according to CapWages, but placing Travis Hamonic or Jacob Bernard-Docker on long-term injured reserve would clear enough space to take on Gibson.
Friedman suggested that Anaheim is asking for “a lot” in return for Gibson, while saying he believes Ottawa likely won’t pay that price. In any case, the Senators do not have a plethora of prospects and won’t have their first-round pick either this year or next because of the botched Evgenii Dadonov trade.
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32 Thoughts: The Podcast
In this edition of 32 Thoughts, Kyle Bukauskas and Elliotte Friedman talk about the Ottawa Senators, who are firmly in the playoff race out East but without Linus Ullmark. Do they go out and get a stopgap?
However, the Senators do own five third-round picks in the next two years and a second rounder this year at their disposal. All those should be in play to try to acquire Gibson. He should be priority No. 1 for Ottawa because of his pedigree (a career .910 save percentage), his play this season and the mere fact that he’s the one clear high-level goaltender on the market.
Gibson could also represent a longer-term solution to incorporate a Boston-style tandem, as Ullmark had with Jeremy Swayman in Beantown for years.
After Gibson, the options become few and shaky. Because most teams at this point of the season still have hopes of making the playoffs, they don’t want to give up a goaltender. Moreover, if teams with expendable goaltenders do want to make a trade, they surely don’t want to help out their competition.
Montreal’s Cayden Primeau, who was placed on waivers after a horrendous start to the season, has been mentioned as an option for the Senators. But with his .836 save percentage in 11 games, there was a reason Ottawa passed on him.
Friedman also mentioned Calgary’s Dan Vladar as an option. The pending free agent holds an .888 save percentage in 19 games, but the Flames are in the playoff hunt and likely don’t want to lose their backup. Vladar may be an upgrade on Forsberg and Merilainen, but there’s no guarantee he would be enough to move the playoff needle.
There’s Joonas Korpisalo, who has an .892 save percentage for the Bruins while still receiving paycheques from the Senators.
Friedman also suggested Petr Mrazek in Chicago as a viable option. Mrazek played in Ottawa during his junior days with the OHL’s 67’s. He was exceptional last season in Chicago but has struggled with an .893 save percentage this season and has another year left on his deal at $4.25 million. Could be worse, I guess.
After scouring the league for options to replace Ullmark in the near-term, there appears to be no clear solutions besides Gibson — just band-aids that appear to fall apart once used for a little bit.
Staois managed to acquire a Vezina-calibre goaltender in Ullmark and promptly signed him to an extension last off-season.
Now, he needs to pull another rabbit out of a helmet to give his team a chance to make the playoffs for the first time since 2017.
