As the great philosopher Sean “Jay-Z” Carter famously said on the Blueprint 3, “men lie, women lie, numbers don’t.” When it comes to prognosticating and evaluating the NFL, a few key numbers tell a greater story.
Whether it’s your wagers, survivor pool, fantasy choices or bragging rights at your NFL watch party and group chats, I’ll provide those numbers on a weekly basis in this space. Here are 10 stats that will tell the story for Week 12 in the NFL.
1. Jackson > Allen?
Sometimes the narrative tells a different story than the numbers do. Because of the Buffalo Bills record, people are looking to fix Josh Allen. Because of the Baltimore Ravens record, people are praising Lamar Jackson with MVP consideration. Their play is more alike than it is different. This season, Allen has 22 pass touchdowns and seven rushing TDs with 15 turnovers, which equals a 70 QBR. In the same span, Jackson has 13 passing TDs and five rushing TDs, 11 turnovers with a 62 QBR. Despite different team results, their individual performances have been comparable, if not favorable, to Allen.
2. Ridley loves Jones
In three games, the Jaguars’ Calvin Ridley has gone off with Zay Jones this season. In the first game, he had eight catches, 101 yards and one TD. In the second, he had seven catches and 122 yards. In the third game, he had seven catches, 102 yards and two TDs. In seven games without Jones, Ridley has one total TD and just one game over 40 receiving yards. To get the most out of their No. 1 receiver Ridley, the Jags need to keep Jones healthy and on the field.
3. Second half the first problem for Kansas City
Kansas City has been shut out in the second half in three consecutive games. The last time the Chiefs scored a second-half point was Oct. 22. But this isn’t a new trend. Their second-half offensive ranks have been abysmal all season, averaging just 5.3 points per game, which is last in the league. They average 4.5 yards per play, which is 28th, have just a 42 per cent red zone efficiency, which is 30th, and average just 7.8 first downs in the second half, which is 24th. That is a stark contrast to the dominant second half team they were offensively last season. In the Super Bowl, for example, the Chiefs’ four drives in the second half were TD, TD, TD and a walk-off field goal. In their Monday-night loss, Chiefs’ drives in second half were punt, punt, fumble, punt, punt and turnover on downs.
4. Kansas City wide receivers missing in action
Once again, the issue on offence with the Chiefs has been their wide receivers. The 123 receiving yards to wide receivers in their most recent loss is their fifth game under 150 yards as a group. The main job of a receiver is to catch the football. The Kansas City unit has an NFL-worst 18 wide-receiver drops this season.
5. Taylor Swift missing in action
Taylor Swift’s absence from Chiefs games continues to be an issue for TV producers, Swifties and their offensive production. Kansas City falls to 3-3 when she doesn’t attend, averaging just 18.5 points, which is 10 points fewer than when she’s in the suite. Nobody misses Taylor more than her boo: Travis Kelce averages 8.5 catches and 108 yards receiving when she’s in attendance, and his average drops to six catches and 41.8 yards when she’s not there. This long-distance aspect of the relationship must stop of Kansas City wants to keep its Super Bowl hopes alive.
6. The Broncos are back
Remember when Denver was 0-3 and gave up 70 points? Well, they have turned the tables. Denver has won four straight, much of it off the strength of its defence, which forced three more turnovers last week, bringing the tally to 12 in the last three games. The Broncos also haven’t given up a wide-receiver touchdown since Week 7. After being routinely lit up, the Broncos have locked things up.
7. The Lions are going streaking
The Detroit Lions are better, but their play on American Thanksgiving is still bad. The Lions haven’t won a Thanksgiving Day game since 2017. From 2013-16, they benefited from the Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson glory years and were 4-0 on Thanksgiving. But before that, it was streaking in the opposite direction as they went 0-9 from 2004-12 on Thanksgiving. Maybe next year they’ll start a new trend.
8. Chargers so close but so far
Every year, the Los Angeles Chargers find ways to lose close games, and this year is no different. Not only have they lost two straight decided by three points, but that’s also been their calling card all season. They are 0-5 in games decided by three points or fewer. They are the only team in the NFL with more than two such losses.
9. Steelers move on from Canada
The Pittsburgh Steelers have finally moved on from offensive coordinator Matt Canada. This is the first time they made an in-season coaching change since 1941, so you know things were dire. The volume of data on how putrid the offence has been is overwhelming. The decision became evident as the offence has been holding back a talented football team. The Steelers are 0-4 when their offence scored fewer than 17 points and they have been outgained in every game this season. The Steelers offence ranks 28th in points per game with 16.6, 28th in yards per game at 280.1 and 31st in passing yards per game with only 170 this season. This wasn’t an anomaly, it was the rule under Canada. The Steelers averaged only 18.6 points per game and 310 yards per game under Canada since 2021, both ranking them 28th in the NFL. In the two and a half years Canada oversaw the offence, the Steelers haven’t once put up 400 yards of offence in a game.
10. Pickett also a problem
Removing the play caller might not solve the issue with the actual players. The Steelers will now get to see if Kenny Pickett is in fact the problem and common denominator in their struggle to move the ball, post-Ben Roethlisberger. Last week, Pickett attempted only one pass past the third-down sticks in the first half. The body of bad work is starting to grow. He has thrown just 13 touchdowns in 22 games. This season, his QBR is a lowly 36.3. Every other QB with a lower QBR than him has been benched, except for Bryce Young. With Canada no longer the scapegoat, we’ll see if Pickett’s play improves or if he is also cast aside.
