TORONTO – Shortly after 3 p.m. ET Sunday afternoon, concurrent games played in two different cities will determine who wins the American League East in 2025.
If the Blue Jays beat the Rays or if the Orioles beat the Yankees, it’s the Blue Jays who win the AL East and secure a first-round bye. But if the Blue Jays lose and the Yankees win, New York will win the division, pushing the Blue Jays into a Wild Card Series.
It’s a dramatic way to finish a season that began all the way back in February, and Blue Jays manager John Schneider intends to savour the moment — at least briefly.
“You have to enjoy that for probably about 10 seconds and then you’ve got to get into the game,” he said. “This is the exact situation you want to be in. Baseball’s funny, man. 162 is a lot of games and you look up and of course it comes down to 162.”
Three consecutive wins give the Blue Jays a little momentum, but since the Yankees have won seven straight Toronto’s margin for error remains non-existent. Schneider’s message: don’t worry about the out-of-town scoreboard and instead focus on taking care of business at Rogers Centre. If the Blue Jays do that, good things can happen.
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Watch Blue Jays vs. Rays on Sportsnet
The Toronto Blue Jays will look to clinch the AL East with a win over the Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday. Catch the action on Sportsnet or Sportsnet+, starting at 3 p.m. ET / noon PT.
“No doubt in our minds we can win the World Series,” said infielder Ernie Clement.
First, though, some big questions must be answered. Here’s a closer look at three of them ahead of the biggest game of the season:
Who pitches now?
Speaking before Saturday’s game, Schneider said the Blue Jays planned to use Kevin Gausman in the series finale, but that the specifics would depend on the state of the AL East race. With the Blue Jays now one win away from clinching a first-round bye, it’s been confirmed that Gausman will start.
A win, and the Blue Jays don’t play until Saturday at Rogers Centre. A loss, paired with a Yankees win over Baltimore, and the Blue Jays would host a Wild Card Series starting Tuesday. Gausman likely wouldn’t be available for that series, but it’s a risk Schneider’s ready to take given the upside of a first-round bye.
“Kev has been so steady, so stable and really damned good in the second half and most of the season,” Schneider said. “I have all the confidence in the world in Kev.”
As Clement put it: “That’s our guy.”
Given the stakes of the game, it’s a safe bet every reliever is available with the possible exception of Tommy Nance, who has pitched in four of the team’s last five games. But thanks to the relief work of Nance, Yariel Rodriguez, Justin Bruihl and Seranthony Dominguez, some other prominent relievers got the day off Sunday.
Jeff Hoffman, Brendon Little, Braydon Fisher and Mason Fluharty will all be somewhat rested going into the season finale, while the likes of Rodriguez and Dominguez could pitch back-to-back. But it all starts with Gausman, in what will be his most important start since Game 1 of the 2023 Wild Card Series against the Twins.
Who pitches later?
Depending on how Sunday goes, the Blue Jays will take one of two highly divergent paths. If the Yankees win the division, the Blue Jays would have to line up pitching plans for a Wild Card Series starting Tuesday. In that scenario, Gausman would only be available on short rest and Chris Bassitt would remain on the injured list so their starting pitching options would include the following:
Game 1, Tuesday: Scherzer on five days’ rest OR bullpen game led by the likes of Louis Varland and Eric Lauer
Game 2, Wednesday: Shane Bieber on regular rest
Game 3, Thursday: Trey Yesavage on regular rest OR Scherzer on extended rest OR bullpen game
If the Blue Jays win the AL East, they’ll have far more flexibility ahead of their Division Series matchup. Bassitt would be eligible to return by then, so their pitching plans could look something like this:
Game 1, Saturday: Gausman/Bieber on extended rest
Game 2, Sunday: Gausman/Bieber on extended rest
Game 3, Tuesday: Scherzer/Bassitt/Yesavage on extended rest
Game 4, Wednesday: Scherzer/Bassitt/Yesavage on extended rest
Game 5, Friday: ALDS Game 1 starter on five days’ rest
This far out, there’s little point in attempting to predict too many specifics, but suffice to say the Blue Jays will be in a far more flexible position if they don’t have to scramble their way through a Wild Card Series.
As Clement said, “our pitching staff has picked us up in a huge way.” Now it’s a question of who will be asked to keep that trend going, and when.
What about Guerrero Jr.?
Over the last two weeks, when the Blue Jays have been playing some of their biggest games of the season, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been as quiet as he ever gets at the plate. Dating back to September 15, and including his 0-for-4 effort Saturday, he has just seven singles, one double and one walk in 46 plate appearances for a .170 batting average and an OPS hovering around .400.
The quality of contact numbers are poor, too, with only one barrel during that time.
Now granted, Guerrero Jr. has still had a very productive season overall, generating 4.0 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. He still has the potential to go off in October and carry this team.
But the sooner Guerrero Jr. finds his form, the better positioned the Blue Jays will be. With a division title and first-round bye on the line, Sunday would be the perfect time for Guerrero Jr. to turn things around. Otherwise, his teammates will have to keep carrying him a little longer — when ideally it would be the other way around.
