The finish line is within sight, and the pace is picking up.
The preparation for the NBA trade deadline begins months in advance. The league is canvassed. Moves discussed at the draft are revisited. Trade structures rigged up a year ago are resurfaced and tweaked.
This goes on all season. About two weeks out from the Feb. 10 deadline lists get narrowed and possibilities get crossed off, the focus tightens to about 10 teams where there is a potential fit and a connection is conceivable, if not plausible.
By the week of the deadline the focus grows narrower still, with on-going discussions taking place between pods of five or six teams. It’s generally from those conversations that trades get solidified.
It doesn’t mean a deal happens. When the moment comes and one team or both get shy, the deal remains nothing more than conversation.
All of which to say is the Toronto Raptors likely have a good feel for what kind of roster moves they can make between now and 3 p.m. on Thursday.
Will it come down to the wire?
Probably, just because it almost always does. Most executives don’t want to commit too soon on the slim chance that it could preclude them from getting in on a late-emerging opportunity, or in case a deal they like better moves from the back burner to the front and they’ve missed their chance by acting too soon.
But there is a quiet confidence that they are well-positioned to make a deal that will help their red-hot club – winners of five straight and 14-6 in their last 20 starts and suddenly in sixth place and out of the play-in tournament – both this season and in the future.
The tools at their disposal – Goran Dragic’s expiring contract, a basket of future first and second-round picks as well as some players on rookie deals or even Chris Boucher and his expiring contract – haven’t changed, but their position has strengthened on a couple of fronts
Two noteworthy deals have already gone down: on Friday the Portland Trail Blazers gave up two good players (Norm Powell and Robert Covington) to the Los Angeles Clippers for a return centring on a second-round pick and the rights to an unproven rookie taken late in the first round last summer, and on Sunday the Cleveland Cavaliers landed Caris Lavert from Indiana for Ricky Rubio’s expiring contract, a lottery-protected first and two seconds, essentially.
The moves give a pretty good indication that the Raptors plan to land a quality rotation player for Dragic’s expiring contract and a first-round pick seems to be on solid footing.
It’s likely looking even better now that the Cavaliers have moved early. With Rubio’s deal and all their picks as well as pending restricted free agent Collin Sexton, the Cavaliers could likely have matched or trumped most Raptors offers.
With them having played their cards, Toronto’s position likely has only improved.
The Raptors also have the benefit of their own hard-earned upward trajectory. It would be a mistake for them not to extract some value from Dragic’s deal, but they’re not desperate.
They’ve learned so much about their team in the past month, their past week even.
“I think it is working,” said Fred VanVleet, who helped the Raptor go 5-0, earned his first all-star nomination, got engaged and invited to the three-point competition all in the space of a week. “Obviously, we’re playing some pretty good basketball, I never really doubted the system or the format of how we were gonna play but you have to do it … What’s our grading scale? If we’re grading it off of how we’ve been so far then we’re pretty good.”
Heading into the season it was a question how a team that lacked size at centre; lacked a back-up point guard – or at least one that head coach Nick Nurse was comfortable using – and had only two proven three-point threats could compete.
The answer, it turns out, is very well.
“Every team you get, there’s challenges to try to figure out how to piece them together and how they’re going to work and how to how to maximize what they can do together,” said Raptors head coach Nick Nurse. “… It’s definitely challenging but it’s OK. I just want to see this group progress. I think guys are getting better individually. I think the team chemistry and the work has been solid and if that continues to improve then we will have a chance almost any night we step out there to do something good.”
In that light, the Raptors don’t have to do anything, but they are in a wonderful position to be able to do something for almost nothing. This time last season the Raptors were trying to decide to trade a franchise icon in Kyle Lowry or a locker room mainstay in Powell. It was intense.
This time around the Raptors believe they can add a player simply by being willing to take on future money for Dragic’s expiring $19.4 million deal – so, for free, basically.
Dragic himself is a wild card. Sources say that the veteran combo guard – who requested leave from the team in November citing disappointment with his role and an urgent family matter – wants to play again this season. The reason he’s been posting videos of his workouts in Miami is to answer questions about if he was contemplating retirement. The 35-year-old wants to play providing he can find the right fit, with winning a priority. The most likely scenario is finding that opportunity after the trade deadline via a buyout, however.
The Raptors have planned to attach one of their future first-round draft picks to any deal involving Dragic, and the team he lands with negotiating the buyout. Around the league the sense is the Raptors can get a good player, someone that would be at worst a fixture in their top six or seven of their rotation, if not push to start.
The Raptors are aware of their needs.
Depth is one. Four of Toronto’s five starters rank first, second, third and sixth in minutes per game. Bench scoring isn’t everything, but the Raptors’ lack of production is extreme. They get less (22.7 points per game) from their bench than any other team by nearly five points and seven points less than they got last season when they were tied for last in bench scoring. The Raptors are on pace for the lowest bench scoring contributions since the 2012-13 Trail Blazers got just 18 points a game from their second unit.
Playmaking is another. As well as Pascal Siakam has played as the point guard/power forward hybrid in support of VanVleet, additional playmaking depth would be welcome, both to help organize the second unit and provide options around VanVleet and Siakam in case of injury.
And while lineups featuring the bigs they do have – Khem Birch, Precious Achiuwa and Chris Boucher – have largely been fruitful, there is no rule against adding size that is bigger and better than what they have or skills that their current trio doesn’t have in aggregate.
Perimeter shooting remains an essential skill that the Raptors are short on. Even over their 20-game surge the Raptors are 24th in NBA effective field goal percentage (which account for both two and three-point field goals).
The sense is they’re more likely to drill down on finding a play-making wing that can shoot, rather than simply a shooter or another big. They’re willing to keep playing with undersized fives and oversized wings and see how far it takes them.
Why are they in good position?
Among money that is likely to move, Dragic’s contract is the second-largest expiring deal on the market, behind only Gary Harris, who is in the last year of a $21-million deal with Orlando. But given the rebuilding Magic have no interest in attaching a draft pick to bring back a player they’re not shopping in the same places as the Raptors.
Similarly, among teams that are looking to load up on talent for a stretch run and beyond, not many are in position to add longer-term salary commitments and have picks to trade.
The Lakers, for example, would love to add a quality playmaker, but only have one first-round pick to add in a deal and not until 2027. Brooklyn can’t trade a first until 2028. The Milwaukee Bucks have future pick encumbrances and a clogged salary cap sheet.
Who might the Raptors be targeting?
You’d have to think someone like Hawks guard Bogdan Bogdanovich would be way high on the list in that he can create offence on and off the ball, has had success in multiple roles and has another year on his contract before a player option in 2023-24. But given the 10th-place Hawks likely still believe they can recreate their run to the Eastern Conference finals, thinking they would trade a key rotation player for cap relief and a mid-round first might be wishful.
Houston Rockets wing Eric Gordon has to be on the radar and well as Sacramento sharpshooter Buddy Hield and wing Harrison Barnes both have qualities that would lengthen the Raptors lineups considerably.
The finish line comes Thursday and the Raptors are in a strong position.
