At this time last year, the Boston Bruins were wrapping up a dreadful season. Their roster had been gutted, and it appeared that the storied franchise was about to endure some hard times.
Instead, Boston engineered an impressive turnaround that few, if any, saw coming. On Saturday, the Bruins clinched a playoff spot under first-year coach Marco Sturm.
“I think with the group that we have, we always believed this could be a goal for us,” Bruins forward Morgan Geekie told reporters. “And with the way that we underperformed last year, I think it brought expectations down. But I knew inside here we believed, and inner belief is a big thing.”
Some reasons for the Bruins’ resurgence are self-explanatory. Starting goaltender Jeremy Swayman has rebounded from a nightmarish 2024-25 season. Healthy versions of defencemen and team leaders Charlie McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm have helped stabilize the back end.
As of Tuesday morning, Boston has a 65.6 per cent chance of drawing the Buffalo Sabres and a 34.4 per cent chance of facing the Carolina Hurricanes in the first round. The Bruins will secure a matchup against the Sabres by defeating the New Jersey Devils on Tuesday.
Could the Bruins, who find themselves in the unusual role of underdog, pull off an upset? Here is how they could do it:
Balanced scoring
The Bruins have one of the NHL’s most balanced offensive attacks. They have eight players who have scored at least 15 goals, tied for second most with the Hurricanes, Minnesota Wild and Edmonton Oilers.
Geekie, who last season recorded 33 goals out of nowhere, leads Boston with 38 as he continues scoring at an absurd clip. Only two of the Bruins’ eight players with 15-plus goals, Geekie (14.6) and forward Pavel Zacha (8.95), have scored way above expectation. (Only Montreal’s Cole Caufield, whose 51 goals are 16.4 more than expected, is ahead of Geekie in that category.)
Zacha anchors a dynamic second line with forwards Casey Mittelstadt, who has successfully transitioned to the wing after struggling at centre, and Viktor Arvidsson. Since the Olympic break, that combination has outscored opponents 21-11 at five-on-five and out-chanced them 109-81 off the rush. (Montreal’s top line of Caufield, Nick Suzuki and Juraj Slafkovsky leads the league with 22 on-ice goals for at five-on-five over that span.)
“It’s the combination,” Sturm told reporters about the second line’s ability to generate offence off the rush. “When you talk about entries, that’s what they bring. They switch it up, too, which is what makes them so dangerous. And now they know each other. They’re good at it now. They’re comfortable. They talk a lot. They know where everyone’s at in any point of the game.”
“Pasta,” the playmaker
The world knows Bruins forward David Pastrnak as a dead-eye shooter, especially when he unleashes his powerful one-timer. This season, however, Pastrnak’s playmaking ability has taken centre stage. He is on the cusp of his fourth 100-point season, and a career-high 70 of those points are assists.
When looking to pass, Pastrnak focuses his attention on the high-danger scoring areas. Nearly 28 per cent of his 1,657 offensive-zone pass attempts have been to the slot. That rate ranks third out of 334 players who have attempted at least 500 passes in the offensive zone. Ottawa’s Brady Tkachuk (30.7 per cent) and San Jose’s Macklin Celebrini (29 per cent) are ahead of Pastrnak, who has totalled 50 of his 70 assists on slot passes. (Pastrnak has forged a connection with Geekie, assisting on 40 of his 71 goals over the past two seasons, including 34 primary assists.)
The Sabres or Hurricanes will still have to respect Pastrnak’s shot. His 132 one-timer attempts and 225 scoring chances this season rank ninth and 33rd, respectively.
“Obviously, one of the reasons I started playing more is because I do feel the other guys are in (a) better spot or have a better opportunity to score, whether it’s because sometimes teams might play me a little harder or differently. So sometimes there is space,” Pastrnak told reporters earlier this season.
The ultimate equalizer
Back in training camp, Swayman stated his goal was “to be elite,” and he delivered. His 42.1 goals saved above expected (0.8 per 60 minutes) are the third most in the league and, more importantly, the most by a goaltender who will appear in the playoffs. (New York’s Ilya Sorokin and Washington’s Logan Thompson did not make it.)
Swayman has saved more than expected in 41 of his 53 starts, which translates to a quality-start rate of 77.4 per cent. That is second only to Tampa Bay’s Andrei Vasilevskiy (77.6 per cent) and a significant improvement from the 59.6 per cent rate that Swayman posted last season.
Two years ago, Swayman was lights out in the Bruins’ first-round win against the Toronto Maple Leafs, saving 9.21 goals above expected over six starts. He could easily do it again.
