As the 2021 season unfolds, Blue Jays Confidential will ask a panel of Sportsnet Blue Jays insiders to weigh in on issues big and small with the team, and around Major League Baseball.
After a brief but encouraging playoff appearance in 2020, the Blue Jays spent big over the winter, adding George Springer, Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray, among others.
The offence looks potent, but questions linger on the pitching side – especially as teams re-adjust to the demands of a 162-game season. Today, our MLB insiders weigh in on what to expect from the Blue Jays’ pitching staff, who could break out in 2021 and which player the team could least afford to lose…
There’s nothing like Opening Day!
The @BlueJays kick off the new season THURSDAY against the Yankees. Coverage begins 12pm ET / 9am PT on Sportsnet.#BlueJaysOnSN pic.twitter.com/0WFjCE6TKY
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) March 31, 2021
Let’s start with a simple question. This pitching staff has taken some hits lately. What level of confidence do you have in the Blue Jays’ ability to patch things together with their pitchers?
Arden Zwelling
I’m higher on this pitching staff than most, but we’ll see. Health will be huge. If Hyun Jin Ryu missed a substantial amount of time, it’d be a big hit. Same if Jordan Romano or Rafael Dolis went down. What the Blue Jays could use most is a few pleasant surprises. Robbie Ray finding the zone and maximizing his elite stuff. Ross Stripling rediscovering his fastball efficiency and pitching like he did in his all-star 2018. Anthony Kay, T.J. Zeuch, or Thomas Hatch taking a big step and providing a starter’s workload of above-average results. Joey Murray turning up mid-season and going on a run. Tim Mayza, Anthony Castro, or Ty Tice emerging as a high-leverage relief weapon. Anything will do. Regardless, I imagine mid-season pitching acquisitions will be necessary. The club ought to be in constant communication with the Giants about Kevin Gausman, the Reds about Sonny Gray, and the Mariners about James Paxton. No need to wait until the trade deadline.
Ben Nicholson-Smith
Well, it’s hard to be confident – let’s put it that way. It’s possible, of course, and I understand if fans want to dream on opening day. This is the time for it! But I think a more realistic scenario has this team mixing and matching for the first three-plus months of the season before adding at the deadline. Ultimately, the strength of this team is the offence, but it sure would help if the pitching staff could at least be league average in 2021.
Shi Davidi
This isn’t apples to apples, but I see some similarities between this club and the 2015 team at the beginning of the season between the outstanding offence, defensive questions and worries about pitching. We obviously know how it turned out back then, but a key difference is the level of depth the Blue Jays have now. They have a pile of arms waiting in the wings which means they shouldn’t have to scramble for someone like Felix Doubront to cover a few starts, but is there enough big-league-ready quality to get through the Yankees and Rays 19 times? As things stand, it looks like the offence will need to do some heavy lifting until external reinforcements arrive prior to the deadline, if not earlier. That’s certainly possible. But if Nate Pearson can be a dude, or Trent Thornton can re-emerge and build on his strong 2019, if Thomas Hatch comes back healthy and takes a step, then all of a sudden they look way steadier.
Jeff Blair
When it comes to the bullpen, I have just this side of zero concern about the Blue Jays’ ability to cover the loss of Kirby Yates, especially considering what we’ve seen this spring from the likes of Jordan Romano, David Phelps and Tyler Chatwood. The starting rotation concerned me coming into spring training even before injuries to Robbie Ray, Nate Pearson and Thomas Hatch. After Hyun Jin Ryu it was essentially a collection of reclamation projects plus a prospect who has been something of an injury magnet early in his career.
This is an organization that managed to go to the playoffs in back-to-back years while managing the workload and innings of Aaron Sanchez, but while Pete Walker is still the pitching coach that front office is no longer here and this group seems less inclined to try it with Pearson or even Alek Manoah. That’s fine with me; everybody has their own philosophical underpinnings. But if that’s the case, they still need to add an arm. Failing to land a starter after going all-in on George Springer and Marcus Semien and taking a flyer on Kirby Yates makes me wonder whether this front office went into the off-season looking to build on 2020’s small sample-size, .533 group, or 2019’s .414 club.
Last year, Teoscar Hernandez broke out in a big way. Of all the breakout candidates on the 2021 Blue Jays, whose emergence would benefit this team the most?
Jeff Blair
The answer to this question in 2021 and 2022 is Nate Pearson, Nate Pearson, Nate Pearson, even though we don’t know what would constitute a breakout for him. Beyond that? If this is a team that will have to outscore its mistakes, it has to be Vladimir Guerrero Jr., no? Especially if he can ‘break out’ in the field.
Ben Nicholson-Smith
I’ll go with Nate Pearson here. Considering the aforementioned pitching questions, seeing Pearson emerge as a frontline starter would be ideal for this team. More often than not, pitchers take years to develop, and Pearson has battled more than his share of injuries, so objectively speaking this is no guarantee. But at some point, Pearson has the potential to take the top of the Blue Jays’ rotation to another level. If that happens in 2021, watch out.
Shi Davidi
Nate Pearson is perhaps the most obvious answer to what the Blue Jays most need but since I feel like that’s low-hanging fruit, let’s go with Jordan Romano. The Blue Jays knew Kirby Yates’ elbow could blow and gambled that he’d be able to get through the season while pitching more in line with his 2019 levels. Part of the reason they felt OK doing that was because they had Romano and Rafael Dolis in house, and brought in Tyler Chatwood and David Phelps to support them. They’ll have to be good but if Romano can be the dominant force he was over 14.2 innings last year for a full season, the Blue Jays won’t likely miss Yates all that much.
Arden Zwelling
Another offensive breakout would be spoils for the rich. The Blue Jays are going to score a bunch of runs regardless. But a youngish starting pitcher like Thomas Hatch, Anthony Kay or T.J. Zeuch taking a big jump and proving capable of logging a 4.20 ERA or lower over 120 innings or more would be huge.
After the recent pitching injuries, Hyun Jin Ryu may well be the player the Blue Jays can least afford to lose. Beyond Ryu, who on this team would be hardest to replace for an extended period?
Ben Nicholson-Smith
No need to overthink this one. George Springer is the best player on this team, and so even on a roster with capable outfielders ready to fill in, he’s the player the Blue Jays could least afford to lose for an extended stretch. There’s a reason he got a $150-million contract: 35-home-run, 5.0-WAR centre fielders are hard to find. While he’s opening the season on the injured list, there’s hope it’ll just be a short-term issue.
Shi Davidi
One of the reasons the Blue Jays built themselves up the way they did is to avoid just such a scenario, where one or two injuries truly decimates them. Still, they’re a Marcus Semien/Bo Bichette/Cavan Biggio injury away from Joe Panik taking regular at-bats, and Ryu aside, nowhere else on the roster is the drop-off so significant from starter to sub. That’s not a knock on Panik, who was a solid performer for the Blue Jays last year along with an important presence on a team facing upheaval. He made the team because the club felt far better about him playing an extended stretch of games than Breyvic Valera. But the Blue Jays simply don’t have the same insulation there as they do elsewhere.
Jeff Blair
The easy answer is George Springer, without whom the whole off-season emphasis on run prevention is wasted, and without whom the whole feel-good factor of that gut-busting contract gets replaced by the usual kvetching about giving out money and term to a guy to cover most of his 30s. I mean, I love Vernon Wells to bits, but if his name and that contract get mentioned in the same sentence as Springer’s this season…
Arden Zwelling
George Springer. He’s the club’s best player and fields a critical defensive position. Even if you think Bo Bichette or Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will have better offensive seasons, Marcus Semien provides a pretty good insurance policy behind them. That layer of protection doesn’t exist in the outfield.
Nobody knows when the Blue Jays will be able to return to Toronto, so let’s set that question aside. But we do know they’ll split their season between multiple locations. How will this impact the team between the lines?
Arden Zwelling
It’s not ideal, but most of the roster at least has experience with it from last season. And the Blue Jays turned Buffalo into an unexpected advantage, going 17-9 at Sahlen Field, including four walk-offs. The season’s nomadic nature will be a baked-in excuse if things ultimately go pear shaped. But players didn’t reach for that excuse last season and I don’t expect them to in 2021.
Ben Nicholson-Smith
After last year, I don’t actually think it’ll be too much of a distraction. Easy for me to say from here in Toronto, I know, but after all the uncertainty of 2020, the challenges of 2021 might not actually seem so bad. Plus, ballplayers are generally good at adapting to different places very quickly. It’s really a necessity in their line of work.
So while it’s far from ideal, I do think they’ll manage. The biggest variable I’ll be watching for is just how the ball flies at TD Ballpark in Dunedin. Something tells me we are going to see a lot of home runs over the first two months of the season.
Jeff Blair
Not much. They have a degree of familiarity with their home ballparks in Dunedin and Buffalo; in fact many of these players are at least as familiar if not more so with these two ballparks than they are the Rogers Centre. My concern would be if the club gets off to a poor start; it’s one thing to be a happy family living out of a suitcase for 60 games in the middle of a pandemic, another when it’s for 162 games. Suddenly, that jet-stream to right field and those minor league lights get to be an issue. Handing manager Charlie Montoyo a contract extension was smart, just in case anybody needs reminding of who is in charge.
Shi Davidi
Pity the pitchers, at least for the Dunedin portion of the schedule. TD Ballpark is a bandbox, especially to right, where it’s a reasonable 328 feet down the line and a ridiculous 353 feet to right-centre. Even with a 16-foot fence, the place plays super small which means there isn’t much margin for error. Whining from the Yankees about visibility aside, it’s not an ideal home and neither is the prospect of making multiple in-season moves. That can create some upheaval off the field, which can sometimes bleed its way on to it. No matter how it plays out, the Blue Jays will have to make a point of finding the good in the situation, rather than locking in on the bad.
Finally, let’s go big picture. What does a successful season look like for the 2021 Blue Jays?
Ben Nicholson-Smith
Between the lines, make the playoffs. That should be a baseline measure of success from here on. Behind the scenes, acquire, develop and debut prospects. And if you want to dream about a best-case-scenario, that includes a return to Toronto later in the summer – and maybe into the fall.
Shi Davidi
A playoff spot in the usual five-team-per-league format will be a real achievement. While FanGraphs’ projected standings have the Blue Jays and Astros second to the Yankees’ 95 wins at 88 wins apiece, the American League has an objective chance to be pretty deep. The Twins are at 87 wins, Red Sox at 86, White Sox at 85, Angels at 84 and Rays and A’s at 83 apiece each project as competitive clubs so the margin between success and failure is relatively thin. Worth keeping in mind is that though Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio and Danny Jansen have all been around for a while, only Jansen has gone wire-to-wire in a full 162- game season. Bichette only has 75 career games under his belt. So there’s still lots of development in store for the core of this team, in what could be a more competitive landscape, making a return to the playoffs an achievement in itself.
Jeff Blair
Vegas has the over/under at 86.5 and some of the projections go as high as 88 wins and as the Blue Jays break camp, I’d probably take the under. I don’t have them winning a wild-card berth, but I’m not sold on the New York Yankees’ pitching – as of right now according to MLB.com they have the third-fewest innings from pitchers who recorded 100 innings pitched in 2019 and 30 in 2020, which doesn’t scream reliability – and I wonder what kind of magic the Tampa Bay Rays have in store to cover the loss of Blake Snell and Charlie Morton. The Blue Jays get no break playing the National League East in inter-league games but neither does anybody else in the American League East. Best-case scenario for the Blue Jays is the charity of others keeps them in the race; I’d be happy with .520 and seeing Guerrero Jr. and Pearson establish themselves once and for all.
Arden Zwelling
First and most importantly, a post-season berth. Next: healthy, productive years for Nate Pearson, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Bo Bichette in which they play to their potential. One or more organizational arms — Thomas Hatch, Anthony Kay, T.J. Zeuch, Joey Murray — taking a big step and emerging as a durable, capable big-league starter. A strong season of consistent playing time and measurable development for top prospects such as Simeon Woods Richardson, Austin Martin, Alek Manoah, Jordan Groshans, and Gabriel Moreno. And a deeper system prospect or two — CJ Van Eyk, Otto Lopez, Chavez Young — breaking out and forcing their way into big-league consideration.
