PHILADELPHIA — This is an interesting and challenging time for making assessments in a baseball season. Seven weeks in, some of the randomness inherent to the beginning of the year is starting to normalize, although the distinction between small-sample size aberrations and trendlines locking in remains murky.
In spite of that, the body of work at this point is big enough that patterns become harder to ignore, which brings us to Kevin Gausman, who was absolutely dominant over six shutout innings Wednesday in a 2-1 loss in 10 innings to the Philadelphia Phillies.
Locking horns with Zack Wheeler, Gausman allowed two hits in the first and then, starting with catching Kyle Schwarber looking to end the first, retired 15 in a row, eight by strikeout, including five in a row during the fourth and fifth innings. A two-out double by Trea Turner in the sixth inning ended that run, but Bryce Harper promptly bounced out to third to end the frame.
And he was full value for it, his fastball sitting at 96.1 m.p.h. while topping out at 99, and his splitter getting eight whiffs on 20 swings, wiping away that eight-run, 3.1-inning mess in Boston last time out.
The most intriguing part, however, is the developing pattern in his season that bears watching.
This start came on five days rest, and in four starts with an extra day between outings, Gausman has allowed three runs on 17 hits and one walk in 28 innings with a jaw-dropping 44 strikeouts. In three starts on a normal four days of rest, he’s allowed 16 runs, 15 earned, on 21 hits and five walks with 16 strikeouts in 14 innings.
His fastball velocity averages out at 94.6 m.p.h. with an extra day of rest, 92.5 m.p.h. on his regular day.
Now, is seven starts enough to identify a definitive pattern? Maybe, but that’s where this mid-May timing muddles the picture. The sample is too big to ignore yet too small to reach conclusions.
Either way, it’s certainly worth talking about as Gausman’s next start, Tuesday at home against the New York Yankees, will come with an extra day of rest, but the next two, versus Baltimore and at Minnesota, will not, as the Blue Jays enter into a stretch of 17 straight games after Thursday’s day off.
The danger of locking in assessments at this point can be highlighted by Brandon Belt, who looked lost for much of April but turned it on during the 3-6 road trip, capped by his go-ahead homer off Wheeler on Wednesday before a Citizens Bank Park crowd of 31,758.
While one good stretch doesn’t make or break a season, Belt certainly looks like the impact left-handed bat the Blue Jays were hoping he’d be when they signed him.
Belt’s homer wasn’t enough, as after Erik Swanson survived a nervy eighth, stranding the tying run at third base, Jordan Romano surrendered singles to Harper and Nick Castellanos to open the ninth, J.T. Realmuto doubled in the tying run one out later. After Alec Bohm hit into a fielder’s choice, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., making a tremendous throw home to get Castellanos at the plate, and Brandon Marsh was walked intentionally, Edmundo Sosa grounded out to send the game into extra innings.
Craig Kimbrel delivered a clean top of the 10th and then, after Tim Mayza struck out leadoff man Bryson Stott and walked Turner, Harper hit a bouncer to the mound that was relayed to Bo Bichette for one out but his throw to first sailed, allowing Sosa to score the winning run.
