Thanks to the Dec. 22 start date of the 2020-21 NBA season, the league will be going through one of its shortest, most intense off-seasons ever.
Kicking off with Monday’s trade moratorium period lifted and the subsequent reported activity most notably seen from the Milwaukee Bucks, it looks like not even COVID can slow down the electricity of the NBA off-season.
The start of trade season was just the appetizer, however, and the main course is just around the corner.
All eyes will be on the NBA Wednesday night for the draft and that momentum will just carry over to Friday evening at 6:00 p.m. ET with the opening of free agency.
Teams will reportedly have until Nov. 30 to report to their home markets before training camp starts, meaning, ideally, most off-season business would be resolved by then.
That’s not a lot of time to get everything in, but with a deadly pandemic still running amok around the world, this appears to be the best the NBA could do.
Raptors Newsletter
For the Toronto Raptors, they have an extra layer of uncertainty as the team still needs to figure out where it’s going to play at least the start of the season, in addition to all the off-season work that needs to be done.
Worse yet for the Raptors is the fact this is a pretty important off-season for the club, with a number of key decisions that will need to be made — on draft night, in free agency and, possibly, in the trade market.
For Masai Ujiri, Bobby Webster and Co. the stress of not knowing where the team’s going to play likely isn’t helping matters, but the Raptors can’t afford to be off their game here, no matter what.
With key free agents like Fred VanVleet and Serge Ibaka that will need to be decided upon and the looming OG Anunoby extension, among other bits of business that will need to taken care of, there’s simply too much at stake for the Raptors this off-season to be distracted in any way.
With that in mind, and to better to understand what these stakes are, here’s a closer look at Toronto’s 2020-21 cap situation and how it pertains to key decisions that will need to be made heading into the draft and free agency for both the short- and long-term health of the club.
NOTE: All salary cap figures are via Basketball Insiders, while collective bargaining agreement details are sourced from Larry Coon’s CBA FAQ.
What will the NBA salary cap be this coming season?
Before diving into specifics, it’s important to know just what the cap and luxury tax threshold will be next season for the rest of the league as it will help us to better frame Toronto’s outlook.
Salary cap: $109,104,000
Luxury tax: $132,627,000
Luxury tax apron: $138,928,000
Unlike previous years, the cap didn’t increase, and ended up artificially staying flat at about $109 million, mainly because of the major loss of revenue the NBA experienced because of COVID-19.
Please also be mindful of the luxury tax and tax apron values, as they will also be important to keep in mind as we go along here.
The 2020–21 Raptors salary cap picture
Here’s a summary of the Raptors’ cap outlook for next season:
Taking a look at this graphic, you may have noticed some key names missing there, but keep in mind this is only looking at players who are actually under contract for the coming season. So players who are free agents-to-be (we’ll get to those guys further down) aren’t listed here.
One interesting thing to note is the trio of non-guaranteed players, Terence Davis II, Dewan Hernandez and Matt Thomas, and when their deals for the season would become guaranteed.
Both Davis and Hernandez’s deals don’t become guaranteed until Nov. 29, and Thomas’ guarantee date is even further out to the league-wide date of Feb. 27.
Likely resources at the Raptors’ disposal
The Raptors won’t be able to use all of these, but here’s a general idea of what the Raptors can do to try to improve themselves.
The word “exception” will be tossed around a lot here and that’s because the only way a team can sign a player or make a trade that would leave it above the salary cap is to use one of the legal exceptions as outlined in the NBA’s CBA. It’s because of these exceptions that nearly every NBA team can and will operate above the league salary cap at all times, treating the luxury tax threshold as the real spending deterrent.
Should the Raptors be unable to retain their free agents, this exception might be in play for them.
Non-tax-payer mid-level exception: There are different tiers of “mid-level exception” and this is the highest. Worth $9.258 million in starting salary, this particular mid-level exception is also referred to as the “full mid-level exception” because in addition to being the most highly valued, it also allows teams to offer contracts in length of up to four years.
In order for a team to qualify for this exception, a team must be below the luxury-tax apron after making the deal. This rule holds true even if a team decides to split the mid-level exception between more than one player.
Tax-payer mid-level exception: This functions almost exactly like its big brother, but it comes with a much lower value of $5.718 million this year and teams are only allowed to offer contracts up to three years in length.
Should Toronto manage to retain the services of its key free agents this is the more likely mid-level exception that it will have at its disposal as it’ll probably put the team above the apron. Like the non-tax-payer one, teams can split the value of it to sign multiple players.
When used, however, because a team will be over the apron, that club will be hard-capped to the apron’s value for the remainder of the season, meaning it can’t exceed the apron under any circumstance to make an additional move that year.
Traded Player Exceptions: Free agency isn’t the only way to improve a roster, and as history has shown — with the likes of Kawhi Leonard and Kyle Lowry — a trade might be the very best way for the Raptors to improve themselves. One way they would be able to help facilitate a potential deal would be through a “traded player exception.”
A traded player exception, or just trade exception, is a mechanism that can allow teams over the cap to complete trades as the money from a trade exception can be used to help match salaries and make a deal work.
In Toronto’s case they hold three of them worth a total of $5.6 million. Unfortunately, you can’t just pool all of these individual trade exceptions’ worth into one transaction as you can use only one per trade.
Trade a player(s)/draft pick(s): Perhaps the simplest option for a Raptors team trying to get better would be to make a trade. Of all the possible candidates on the roster, Norman Powell would make the most sense as a trade chip for a number of reasons (more on this later).
Free agents
Here’s a quick glance at who the Raptors’ free agents are:
• Marc Gasol (UFA)
• Serge Ibaka (UFA)
• Fred VanVleet (UFA)
• Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (UFA)
• Chris Boucher (RFA with qualifying offer of $1,985,289)
• Malcolm Miller (RFA with qualifying offer of $1,985,289)
Obviously, the most important names on this list are the first three. Gasol, Ibaka and VanVleet were all instrumental parts of the club’s championship run in 2019 and it would be nice to have them return given the success the team saw last season with them.
Of that trio, the most important piece of business to get done is certainly VanVleet. One of the top free agents this year, VanVleet’s made no bones about wanting to get paid what he’s owed, and the Raptors themselves haven’t been shy in letting people know how much they want to retain him.
There’s mutual interest on both sides to do right for each other with hopeful expectation from Raptors fans that VanVleet will remain a Raptor.
More interesting is what to do with the two centres. The rumour mill is flying around Ibaka after he enjoyed a career year with Toronto last season. Ibaka made about $23.3 million last season and will likely command a similar annual dollar range, or even more.
As for Gasol, he’s coming off one of the worst years of his professional career and at age 35 there’s a chance he might be finished with the NBA. If he’s not, however, the Raptors may be able to take advantage of the down year from Gasol and re-sign him on the cheap as a possible big return on investment as he was robbed of most of last season due to injury and figures to be healthier coming into this season.
As for the others, Hollis-Jefferson is a nice player, but one that’s easily replaced, and as for the two RFAs, it’s hard to imagine much competition out there for Miller if Toronto does decide to keep him. But there might be something off a bidding battle for Boucher as the Canadian took a nice step forward last season.
How decisions from the draft may impact free agency
The Raptors will be picking at No. 29 and 59 Wednesday night and given the nature of this draft, between those two picks there’s probably about 40-60 guys Toronto could be looking at.
But while it may be nearly impossible to predict which players, specifically, the Raptors will be looking to draft, we might be able to glean some information about the team’s free agency situation based on the positions they end up taking.
For example, if Toronto was to take a big man like Washington’s Isaiah Stewart, then that might be an indication that the Raptors may not be as confident on coming to an agreement with Ibaka.
Similarly, if the Raptors were take a point guard like Arizona’s Nico Mannion, what would that say about where they’re at with VanVleet?
Of course, Toronto may just be picking based on what it believes is best available and there’s also the fact that having backup point guards and centres is never really a bad idea, either.
Still, it’s hard to think that decisions made during the draft won’t impact free agency strategy in some way.
If any Raptor’s getting traded, Powell is the guy
As mentioned before, Powell is probably the best trade chip the Raptors have and it’s because he commands an easy-to-move contract that could be expiring and has desirable skills that nearly every contender would like to have on their team.
Powell is owed about $10.9 million for the 2020-21 campaign and has a player option worth about $11.6 million for 2021-22. Matching salaries with a figure like that to facilitate a trade should be relatively simple for the Raptors and Powell’s improved shooting, to go along with his slashing and cutting ability, plus his hard-nosed defence might make him an interesting rental option for contending teams.
His name is more likely to come up around trade deadline time when a clearer picture of if the Raptors may be buyers or sellers will be made, but it’s worth keeping in mind that Powell is a likely trade chip should the Raptors decide to move in that direction at any point.
The OG decision
LIke Pascal Siakam before the start of last season, the Raptors will have a day before the season starts (in this case Dec. 21) to make a decision on whether the team should look to sign Anunoby to an extension or risk battling with other teams next off-season when he’ll become a restricted free agent.
Anunoby is entering the fourth year of his rookie-scale contract and as such is eligible for something called the “designated rookie extension.”
This is a five-year extension that kicks in after a rookie-scale player’s fourth season and allows that player a maximum salary of 25 per cent of the cap, so long as his team offers it up.
With a reported projected cap of $112 million in 2021-22, if the Raptors decide to give Anunoby a max extension, he’ll be looking at a five-year deal worth about $164.3 million (if you include full eight-per cent raises).
The question the Raptors have to weigh here is whether Anunoby is worth that kind of money and commitment.
They certainly thought so of Siakam when they did it a year ago, but he showed more offensive ability than Anunoby has when it was his time.
So, while Anunoby has the potential to be a top defender in the league, there’s a legitimate question to be asked in whether that’s enough to warrant giving him franchise-cornerstone-type money.
Granted, the Raptors can still get an extension done without paying him the max, but would Anunoby and his new representation, Klutch Sports, accept that? If the Raptors come in with an extension offer Anunoby and his team deem low, it may upset them leading to a potentially ugly 2021 off-season situation.
There are pros and cons on both sides to this debate, and going with either comes with risks that will be intriguing to see play out.
Every decision must be made with 2021 in mind
Another reason why the Anunoby extension decision isn’t as cut-and-dry as it might seem is because the Raptors will want to keep cap flexibility to have at least one max slot open for the 2021 free agency class.
Everyone already knows that Giannis Antetokounmpo could be available then, but other big names like Leonard and Paul George could also be on the open market.
As such, if the Raptors are serious about trying to chase these big fish, each decision made this off-season must be weighed with the 2021 off-season in mind.
It’s why the Raptors want to keep VanVleet but probably don’t want to break the bank for him. The same can be said for Ibaka. And it’s why just pulling the trigger on Anunoby can’t be as simple as everyone would probably like it to be.
The NBA is a league driven by its superstars, and unless you have one of those guys, winning a title is probably nothing more than a pipe dream. So, as strange as it might be to approach an off-season specifically with the next one in mind, it’s just what has to be done to be successful in the league.
