Leafs fans want something to be different with their team next year, anything really. Brad Treliving has joined the club as GM and said a few things that might cool off the idea that “something different” will happen with their most meaningful pieces, including making one very astute observation. The exact quote was: “At the end of the day, it is about getting better. Just being different doesn’t necessarily make you better.”
And, yeah. When you zoom out, when you calm down, when you back away from the seven years of playoff disappointments this core has given Toronto, of course they need to be better, and not just different.
But look…
Plenty of people have left relationships not because they knew there was something better out there for them, but because their current thing wasn’t working. The mystery box may not be better, but at least it won’t be this. There is no shortage of fans who look at this Leafs team right now and think “It isn’t you, it’s me, enough talk, it’s just time to move on.”
Back to logic, though. The Leafs are coming off seasons of 115 and 111 points and they beat the three-time defending Eastern Conference champs in the playoffs. The Vegas Golden Knights just won the Stanley Cup a year removed from missing the playoffs, while the Florida Panthers snuck in by a point. It’s hard to feel like Toronto is that far off, or that they need a full overhaul.
So if they were to trade one of their core pieces, how do they get — and I want to phrase this correctly… how do they get different without getting worse? They’re already in the clump of teams good enough to win the Cup. But this exact formula hasn’t worked, fans are angry, and you need to start with the vibes and energy in a different place.
For clarification: You already know that we’re talking about trading Mitch Marner or William Nylander, right? If Auston Matthews doesn’t want to re-sign that changes things, but assuming he does (and there is reason to believe he will), they’re obviously not trading him. And John Tavares is the captain with an ironclad no-trade clause, so he’s sticking around.
So if you were willing to trade Marner or Nylander — maybe the latter on a sign-and-trade? — what are some of the options you could pursue to get different, without getting worse (and hopefully improve a little)?
Options: Would you trade Mitch Marner for two years of prime-aged Vezina finalist Juuse Saros who only makes $5 million against the cap both this year and next?
You’d love to go into a playoff series feeling like you clearly have the best goaltender, wouldn’t you?
I realize that, on the talent front, Leafs fans may not love it. Marner has twice been voted the best right-winger in the NHL, he’s a perennial 100-point-ish guy, and he’s in his prime. He gets Selke votes. He’s a star.
But he also makes almost $11 million for the next two seasons, and if we’re not leaving anything unsaid, his playoff performances have left something to be desired.
If that extra $6 million per season frees you up to pay for, say, a big portion of Dmitry Orlov’s next contract in free agency, how much better do you like the Leafs with Matthews, Nylander, Tavares, an ascendant Matthew Knies, and a few other nice pieces complemented by Saros in net and Orlov on D? Cap space is an asset, and when you trade a player for nothing (think: Max Pacioretty to Carolina for “nothing,” as Vegas did last off-season), you have to think of that open money as the asset gained. It’s a flexible asset that can become another valuable piece.
Options: The Winnipeg Four (OK, two)
You could do the above with Connor Hellebuyck, but his expiring contract and what he’ll demand on his next deal are scary. Would Pierre Luc-Dubois – who may want to go to Montreal – sign a big ticket in Toronto? They could sure use a talented guy who can at least bring the physical pest factor the Leafs core has been said to lack. Dubois finished behind only two players in penalties drawn this past season – Connor McDavid, and the departing Michael Bunting. The difference being that Dubois was on pace for over 30 goals, is 6-foot-4, 215 pounds, and is just turning 25.
Options: Go “bigger and meaner” head on…and get Tom Wilson
Another guy who doesn’t earn much, but who is exactly what Leafs fans salivate over, is 29-year-old Tom Wilson. He makes $5.1 million next year, and will need a new deal beyond that. Would the Capitals prefer a younger 40-goal guy in Nylander for the 25-goal pace of Wilson? For the Leafs, the concept of acquiring a guy who’s almost $2 million cheaper and brings a much-desired physical element (who can also play on a top line) might be a consideration while they’re still in “go for it” mode.
The whole “would you rather have William Nylander or Tom Wilson” question is a major test of hockey philosophy. I’m just pointing out this would be among the many philosophical discussions the new front office will have.
These deals would all likely be bigger than one-for-one trades, with next contracts and how to even the scales to be considered, but we’re just looking at options.
Option: A core forward for a defenceman who can move the puck and play on offence
The height of “well actually” right now, which is Twitter’s specialty, is to note that the Leafs “actually need more offence not defence” by the numbers. But trading a forward for a defenceman doesn’t ignore that necessarily. You don’t have to score less when you chose to improve the players who don’t line up at the red line when the puck drops. Plenty of defencemen can get the puck up the ice and into the hands of your offence, and quite frankly, the Leafs’ D-corps next season is a Major Problem right now. (Physically, offensively, defending…the group is going to need help.)
I don’t think they’ll re-sign Justin Holl, and I think it’s possible Mark Giordano retires. That leaves their blue line looking like this:
Rielly – Brodie
McCabe – Liljegren
Timmins
(maybe Luke Schenn?)
Now here’s the blue line that just won the Stanley Cup:
Martinez – Pietrangelo
McNabb – Theodore
Hague – Whitecloud
Light years different. The Leafs don’t have to have the best D-corps in the league to win the Cup, but how do they at least close that gap? Does Nashville want to start over and move Roman Josi? I personally don’t think Erik Karlsson is the right answer, but he’s an answer nonetheless (and a salary comparable for Marner).
It’s not at all silly to suggest the Leafs trade one of these two forwards for someone who can help back there. There is also another unpopular option on that social media site, which probably has merit too:
Option: Trade for a defenceman who defends
I know the team needs goals, but you’re allowed to make more than one move in the off-season (and on the way to the trade deadline). Brett Pesce is 28, owed just $4 million next season, and I know the Hurricanes like Nylander and need goals. Could that (and Pesce’s extension) solidify the Leafs defence enough to allow them to then focus on finding more offence after that move? Keeping in mind that any move for a low-cap guy like Pesce allows the Leafs a lot more room to spend to get better up front (at least next season). As always, getting cap space allows flexibility.
While we’re talking about Carolina:
Option: Sebastian Aho?
They probably wouldn’t do this, but Aho is 26 next month, has scored almost 40 goals each of the past two seasons, and has a physical element the Leafs need in their core. His cap hit is $8.46 million next year, after which he’ll be owed a big raise (up to what Marner earns now?). Aho’s not just different, he keeps you from taking a step backwards.
Would Carolina move him so they don’t have to give him the big payday? Nylander is cheaper, and Marner is under control for two years. And then, could the Leafs find a way to accommodate Aho’s payday next year (and beyond?).
I find exercises like this remarkably challenging, because we’re lacking so much information. What are opposing teams pursuing? What do next deals look like on some of the guys the Leafs would potentially acquire? If you free up cap space, who can you target to make the previous move make sense? Until you can actually talk to the GMs and players involved, it’s tough to know what’s absolute fancy and what’s close to realistic.
All I know is that it’s not realistic for the Leafs to not change anything and keep the fans happy. They’ve seen enough, they’re ready for something different. Maybe that means waiting until the next season is under way, then approaching Marner or Nylander about moving off their no-trade clauses (or in Nylander’s case, using one of the 10-teams on a list he’s expected to provide). But with the draft coming up, and both players currently eligible to be traded anywhere in the league, Treliving has a short, two-week window from now to get creative and go big.
He got back nice pieces for Matthew Tkachuk in a trade his old team could never really win. Here, I don’t think Treliving would need to “win” any trade to help the team. He’d just need to not lose the deal, while presenting that dressing room (and the fans) a chance to believe that next year something, finally, is going to be different.
