Choose Your Own Adventure: Can you navigate the Maple Leafs’ off-season?

DECISION TIME

Can you navigate the most critical and complicated off-season in Maple Leafs’ memory?

T
he sense is, it’s kinda up in the air.”

Auston Matthews captured the confused state of both the Toronto Maple Leafs and the team’s nation of fans when he uttered those words following yet another too-soon playoff defeat and in advance of Toronto’s most uncertain off-season since he was drafted.

Within days, long-serving general manager Kyle Dubas got axed, the GM’s beloved assistant quit, and the Marlies’ coaching staff was wiped out. And that didn’t come close to addressing all the question marks still staring this club in the face. The long-term futures of the Leafs’ young stars remain undetermined, as does the fate of their head coach. Fans need three hands to count the number of impending free agents on a roster that (finally) won a first-round series, but no extra appendages are required for the realization that just reaching Round 2 isn’t so satisfying after all.

Everything is on the table. At least, it should be.

President Brendan Shanahan, whose own security is in question, felled the first domino by firing Dubas. Now, Shanahan has turned his focus to the urgent search for a new GM, with ex-Flames honcho Brad Treliving a lead person of interest and plenty of other experienced, out-of-work executives tossing their hats in the ring, apparently eager to tackle some of this summer’s most difficult and delicate hockey decisions.

How are the Maple Leafs finally going to get over the hump?

“If I had all the answers, I wouldn’t be standing here right now,” Matthews said.

But you — dear reader and all-knowing armchair GM — do possess the answers.

Imagine Shanahan has tapped you on the shoulder, approved your financial package and handed you the keys. How are you going to tackle the most critical and complicated summer in Maple Leafs’ memory and set the franchise up for a Stanley Cup run in 2023-24?

You have the passion. Now, choose your own Leafs adventure.

Make your choices by clicking on your answers, starting with the biggest question of them all:

ON ONE HAND, the numbers say Sheldon Keefe is the greatest regular-season coach in Maple Leafs history, and it’s hard to argue with math. Auston Matthews, 25, Mitchell Marner, 26, and William Nylander, 27, are all under contract, all in their primes, and all on board with another shot to do the thing in spring.

On the other hand, that same coach and those same three players have mustered just a single playoff series victory over their careers and routinely fall short in elimination games, when the pressure and the stakes rise.

Whether you look to the 2019 Toronto Raptors — who fired the reigning Coach of the Year and traded one of the greatest players in franchise history — or the 2023 Florida Panthers — who fired a Coach of the Year finalist and traded one of the greatest players in franchise history — there are some compelling recent examples of bold moves yielding golden results.

No doubt, you can find evidence to justify either path: run it back or blow it up.

As Black Sheep said: The choice is yours.

What’s it going to be? Are you running it back?

RUN. IT. BACK.

Matthews and Marner represent the most dynamic duo this beleaguered organization has seen in 100-plus years, and Nylander still has another year on a bargain deal.

Let’s not get hasty here.

You’re not lazy. You’re loyal.

Matthews is one year removed from his 60-goal, Hart Trophy–hoisting performance. Marner just got nominated for a Selke and hung 99 points on these scrubs. Nylander ripped 40 goals and was buzzing in the playoffs.

Once again, these Leafs ran into a hot goalie and, for the fourth time in five years, lost to a team that went all the way to the Final.

They’re closer than the haters think. Dubas built a winner, and his fingerprints will be all over the 2024 Stanley Cup. Unfortunately, he won’t be around for the parade.

As for the expiring contracts of Matthews and Nylander? You’ll deal with those later. Hopefully when you’re tipsy off championship champagne.

Still, after bowing out to the Panthers in five games, you might want to at least make changes to the supporting cast, right?

YOU’VE SAVED YOURSELF hours on the phone and a dozen difficult conversations by deciding to keep the coach, the core, and offer extensions to most of your impending UFAs.

The band isn’t breaking up.

Now comes the hardest decision of all: Will they still be rocking to the same song?

Hall & Oates’ “You Make My Dreams” has served as the celebration anthem of Maple Leafs’ home goals since the beginning of the 2018-19 season, soundtracking two Rocket Richard runs for Matthews.

Do you keep the happy-go-lucky ’80s jam rolling into a sixth year in the Six? Or do you dare request the DJ spin a new tune?

AFTER ONE MEASLY postseason series victory in the current era, there is no way you can simply run it all back and expect a better result. Something must change to give you, your remaining employees, and Leafs Nation reason to believe 2023-24 will be different.

Shanahan was careful enough to leave decisions on the coaching staff in your hands, in case you’d like to give Sheldon Keefe another shot. His regular-season record is a sparkling 166-71-30, with a .678 points percentage. His playoff resume less so: 13-17, with a .433 winning percentage.

Maybe you believe Keefe is still the right man to guide the group, that he has learned and grown enough from four postseasons of disappointment. Then again, maybe it’s time to bring in your own coach and immediately put your stamp on the Leafs.

You decide: Are you showing Keefe the door?

KEEFE IS GONE, and you’ve convinced ownership to eat the final year of his salary so you can hire a new bench boss. Now, you must swiftly turn your attention to your Core 4 forwards, who have dazzled in the regular season but failed to score enough goals when it matters most.

The aging but still productive John Tavares and his $11-million cap charge will be next-to-impossible to shed, especially considering he’s on record saying he’s not interested in waiving his no-move clause or unstitching the “C” from his Maple Leafs sweater. Auston Matthews will turn UFA in 2024 and has a full no-move clause kicking in July 1, the same day he’s eligible to re-sign for an AAV he’s hoping will eclipse Nathan MacKinnon’s as the highest in the league. William Nylander, hot off a 40-goal campaign and a bargain at $6.9 million, is also heading toward a contract year. He has a 10-team no-trade list that will activate this summer, so waiting on his future comes with a measure of risk as well. And Mitchell Marner — Selke finalist and all-star right wing — thrives in all situations but his production and effectiveness have tended to dry up late in playoff series. He’s under contract for two more seasons but, like Matthews, will have full control of his destiny starting July 1.

Gauging these stars’ asking price on extensions and their trade value on the market is of paramount importance heading into June’s draft in Nashville, where most of the wheeling and dealing gets done. How much faith do you have that these guys will finally click next spring? Is it time to adjust the mix at the heart of your roster?

Are you keeping the Core 4?

KEEFE STAYS PUT, which allows you to tuck a fire-the-coach card into your back pocket, something you can pull out as early as November if your Maple Leafs stumble of the gate.

Now, you must turn your attention to your Core 4 forwards, who have dazzled in the regular season but failed to score enough goals when it matters most.

Are you keeping the Core 4?

OKAY, YOU’VE PINK-SLIPPED Coach Keefe and octupled down on the core.

It’s time to turn your attention to the tradable pieces on the edges of your roster and make decisions on the 10 (!) impending unrestricted free agents that Dubas walked to the door as rentals or “own rentals.” You can also consider trades for the handful of support players (T.J. Brodie, Jake McCabe, Sam Lafferty, Timothy Liljegren, Calle Jarnkrok) under contract for 2023-24.

Some change is inevitable, as the UFAs now have a say in their own futures. But how happy are you with the Maple Leafs’ supporting cast? And how eager will you be to bring the majority of them back?

Is it time to make changes?

OKAY, YOU’VE PINK-SLIPPED Coach Keefe and traded at least one of the core forwards.

You are already dominating hockey’s headlines in the summer of 2023. What do you have left for an encore?

It’s time to turn your attention to the tradable pieces on the edges of your roster and make decisions on the 10 (!) impending unrestricted free agents that Kyle Dubas walked to the door as rentals or “own rentals.” You can also consider trades for the handful of support players (T.J. Brodie, Jake McCabe, Sam Lafferty, Timothy Liljegren, Calle Järnkrok) under contract for 2023-24.

Some change is inevitable, as the UFAs now have a say in their own futures. But how happy are you with the Maple Leafs’ supporting cast? And how eager will you be to bring most of them back?

Remember, you’ve cleared some hefty salary and are in a better position to retain some of these intriguing rentals — if you so choose. So, is it time to make even more changes to the roster?

OKAY, YOU’VE SURVEYED the coaching market and opted to keep Keefe around for the final year of his contract. You’ve also octupled down on the core.

Some change is inevitable, as the UFAs now have a say in their own futures. But how happy are you with the Maple Leafs’ supporting cast? And how eager will you be to bring most of them back?

Is it time to make changes?

OKAY, YOU’VE SURVEYED the coaching market and opted to keep Keefe around for the final year of his contract. But! You’ve sent a shockwave through your dressing room and snatched headlines by trading at least one of the Core 4.

What do you have left for an encore?

Some change is inevitable, as the UFAs now have a say in their own futures. But how happy are you with the Maple Leafs’ supporting cast? And how eager will you be to bring most of them back?

Remember, you’ve cleared some hefty salary and are in a better position to retain some of these intriguing rentals — if you so choose. So, is it time to make even more changes to the roster?

THE STAR PLAYERS aren’t the issue. The coach is.

Is it really feasible to trade Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner or William Nylander and win the deal? Seriously? Did the Calgary Flames win the Matthew Tkachuk trade? Maybe they would’ve been better off keeping him for one more season.

You aren’t sold on the supporting cast you inherited from Dubas and won’t get caught overpaying for the likes of Ryan O’Reilly, Michael Bunting, David Kämpf, Justin Holl, Alexander Kerfoot or Luke Schenn. But the core is just fine, and you’re shrewd enough to fill in the fringes, maybe explore a trade for Järnkrok, McCabe or Brodie, and conduct an exhaustive coaching search.

While Keefe’s regular-season record has been fantastic, he lost four of his five playoff series, and his players didn’t look ready to roll early in games and early in series. A new voice and a fresh perspective on line combinations and style of play (sometimes dumping it out and dumping it in is okay) is all this talented group needs.

Let’s see how this high-powered offence runs with a different hand on the wheel.

Would you like to go again?

THE PLAYERS AREN’T the issue. The coach is.

You also like the supporting cast you inherited from Dubas and will do your best to come to terms with role players like Ryan O’Reilly, Michael Bunting, David Kämpf and Luke Schenn.

Let’s see how this high-powered offence runs with a different hand on the wheel.

Would you like to go again?

YOU AXED THE coaching staff, detonated the core and let the free agents walk without so much as a wave goodbye.

Everything is on the table when you’re in charge, and you’d prefer to strip this thing down to the studs, expansion team-style, and build around a few pieces.

You’re smart enough to execute a blockbuster trade or two, pick up the free-agent role players the other GMs are sleeping on, and hire the best coach for the job.

A fresh voice behind the bench, an overhauled core and some inspired depth will give your Maple Leafs a fresh identity and send a message to the hockey world that winning one round in 19 years is unacceptable.

Everyone must pay.

Would you like to go again?

FED UP, YOU axed the coaching staff and detonated the core. The Death Star is in shambles. And yet, surveying the wreckage, you’ve located support pieces worth keeping.

On the back end, Brodie ($5 million), McCabe ($2 million) and Liljegren ($1.4 million) all deliver fine bang for their bucks. Luke Schenn went above and beyond the call of duty. You’ll want to bring him back.

Up front, Matthew Knies’ future is as bright as a goal light. Pending UFAs Ryan O’Reilly, Michael Bunting and Noel Acciari are all competitive, edgy guys worth re-signing for the right price.

A fresh voice behind the bench and an overhauled core will give your Maple Leafs a fresh identity and send a message to those who remain that losing in spring will no longer be tolerated.

Would you like to go again?

YOU SEEM ALMOST as indecisive as the actual Maple Leafs front office. You didn’t want to run it back, and yet here you are running it all the way back. You believe in Keefe and your handsomely paid skilled forwards as much as Dubas once did. All they need is more chances and less Sergei Bobrovsky.

You realize the role players — Michael Bunting, Ryan O’Reilly, Justin Holl, Alexander Kerfoot, David Kämpf and the rest — will need to be turned over in free agency. But even if you’re more resistant to change than you think, you’re also smart enough to uncover the bargains, tune the fringes, and let Toronto party like it’s 1967.

Would you like to go again?

YOU SEEM ALMOST as indecisive as the actual Maple Leafs front office. You don’t want to run it back, and yet here you are running it all the way back and continuing to bet on Keefe’s ability to drive the best performance out of Tavares, Matthews, Marner, Nylander and Morgan Rielly. Will small tweaks really put the group over the top? An offensive-minded, puck-possession coach needs offensive-minded players to execute the game plan, after all, you reason.

The group should at least be hardened by scar tissue. Raises for Matthews and Nylander, if you can re-sign them, won’t kick in until 2024 — when the salary cap is projected to make a significant leap. Therefore, you’ll do your best to re-sign as many members of the supporting cast (Ryan O’Reilly, Michael Bunting, David Kämpf, et al.) as possible, knowing you can fill in the gaps with entry-level rookies in your system like Matthew Knies, Nick Robertson, and Bobby McMann.

Patience is a virtue, and you’re full of it.

Would you like to go again?

COACHING IS NOT the issue, the players decide. And after seven postseason attempts, they’ve chosen to win all of one single playoff round. Something is rotten at the core, and it has leaked to the fringes. The whole squad is too comfortable.

For the first time in the Matthews-Marner-Nylander era, you will gauge the trade market on your star forwards and shake up the nucleus. After all, defence and determination win championships.

You can allot a chunk of that superstar salary to a bona fide top-four defenceman and/or a more proven No. 1 goalie. You can find edgier forwards, and by letting your impending UFAs — Ryan O’Reilly, Michael Bunting, Justin Holl, Alexander Kerfoot, David Kämpf, Noel Acciari — walk, you’ll open up worlds of cap space to go hunting for new blood.

Heck, maybe you’ll even explore the trade market for T.J. Brodie, Jake McCabe and Calle Järnkrok, too. No player is safe under your watch.

Your fresh perspective guarantees a fresh start and should have excitement bubbling on Day 1 of training camp.

Would you like to go again?

COACHING IS NOT the issue, the players decide. And after seven postseason attempts, they’ve chosen to win all of one single playoff round.

Something is rotten at the core. So, for the first time in the Matthews-Marner-Nylander era, you will gauge the trade market on your star forwards and seriously shake up the nucleus. After all, defence and determination win championships.

You can allot a chunk of that superstar salary to a bona fide top-four defenceman and/or a more proven No. 1 goalie. You can find some edgier forwards, and you’ll have some dough left over to offer reasonable raises to some of your impending UFAs (Ryan O’Reilly, Michael Bunting, Justin Holl).

You are a brave soul, prepared to roll the dice on a blockbuster trade, even if it means dealing the best individual talent for the greater good.

Would you like to go again?

LET’S RUN IT back, baby.

Daryl Hall, John Oates, Sheldon Keefe, Auston Matthews, Mitchell Marner, William Nylander, John Tavares, Morgan Rielly and the rest.

With a reasonably priced goalie tandem of Ilya Samsonov and Joseph Woll, there will be enough cap space to make solid pitches to pending UFAs Michael Bunting and Ryan O’Reilly, too. You can pull at their hometown heartstrings. And seriously: Is there a better defensive centre in the world than David Kämpf?

(As for your Matt Murray issue, maybe you can trade a pick at the draft. Or, worst case: MLSE has the coffers for a buyout.)

Eighth time is the charm! Let’s make those Stanley Cup dreams come true.

Would you like to go again?

LET’S RUN IT back, baby! But switch up the soundtrack.

Same band, different tune.

You believe in Keefe and your handsomely paid skilled forwards as much as Dubas once did. All they need is more chances and a better shooting percentage.

Even useful role pieces like Michael Bunting, David Kämpf and Ryan O’Reilly are worth trying to re-sign in free agency, and with a reasonably priced goalie tandem of Ilya Samsonov and Joseph Woll, there will be enough cap space to make solid pitches to most pending UFAs.

(You can deal with your Matt Murray issue at the draft. Worst case: MLSE has the coffers for a buyout.)

Where you draw the line, however, is Hall & Oates. Because keeping everything the same and expecting a fresh result would be insane.

Would you like to go again?

You believe in Keefe and your handsomely paid skilled forwards as much as Dubas once did. All they need is more chances and less Sergei Bobrovsky.

You realize the role players — Michael Bunting, Ryan O’Reilly, Justin Holl, Alexander Kerfoot, David Kämpf and the rest — will need to be turned over in free agency. But you’re smart enough to uncover the bargains, fine-tune the fringes and let Toronto party like it’s 1967.

Would you like to go again?