The challenge facing the Dodgers is all too familiar.
Down 3-1 to Atlanta in the NLCS, they must rally for three straight wins or settle for another NLCS exit despite posting baseball’s best record. And once again, they’re here after a frustrating night for Clayton Kershaw in Thursday’s 10-2 loss.
Meanwhile, in the American League, a Carlos Correa walk-off homer led to a 4-3 Astros win that forces Game 6 against Tampa Bay. Objectively, the Rays are still better positioned here, and Blake Snell’s slated to start Friday, but Houston’s certainly making things interesting.
Here’s what stood out most on a night filled with dramatic moments…
How much blame does Kershaw deserve?
The first time Kershaw ever pitched in the playoffs, the Dodgers’ infield consisted of James Loney, Rafael Furcal, Nomar Garciaparra and Jeff Kent. That was back in October 2008, Kershaw’s rookie season, in a game the Dodgers lost to the Phillies 8-5. Kershaw actually pitched well that day, but that’s not the point.
The point is, Kershaw’s been pitching in the playoffs for a long time, and by now you’ve probably decided whether he’s a choker, unlucky or somewhere in between. Certainly, the results haven’t been nearly as good in October (4.23 ERA entering Game 4) as they are during the regular season (2.43 ERA), and that trend continued Thursday.
But as usual, it’s an oversimplification to point fingers at Kershaw, who has a 3.32 ERA with 23 strikeouts compared to two walks this post-season despite allowing four earned runs Thursday, especially considering back spasms led to a late scratch just two days ago.
Not only did his manager leave him in to face the top of Atlanta’s potent lineup a third time, the Dodgers’ bullpen collapsed after Kershaw left, leading to a six-run inning, and the Los Angeles offence managed just one hit against the rookie they were facing.
So no, Kershaw didn’t pitch all that well. And his reputation as an October choker isn’t going anywhere unless he wins a World Series or two. But there are many reasons the Dodgers are down 3-1 in the NLCS and Kershaw’s outing is just one of them.
.@BryseWilson appreciation post #MixItUp | #ForTheA pic.twitter.com/0aHS4Tx83K
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) October 16, 2020
The other starting pitcher did OK, too
One of the pitchers starting Thursday was a three-time Cy Young Award winner destined for the Hall of Fame. The other was Bryse Wilson, 22 years of age and making his playoff debut.
Wilson, a six-foot-two right-hander with an impressive mullet and a fastball to match, spent much of the season at Atlanta’s alternate training site before rejoining the team in September and pitching well down the stretch. But still — if anyone saw a post-season start against Kershaw coming, it wasn’t him.
“Not in a million years,” he told reporters before Game 4.
Yet there he was, holding the prolific Dodgers offence to just one run over six innings of work. Wilson struck out five while allowing just one hit, a home run to another surprise October contributor, Dodgers designated hitter Edwin Rios.
Ozuna delivers yet again
With one out in the fourth inning, Marcell Ozuna got Atlanta’s offence started by hitting a solo home run off of Kershaw. Three innings later, he added an insurance run with his second solo shot of the game. By the time the game ended, he was four for five with four driven in.
Ozuna hit everyone on his way to NL home run and RBI titles in 2020, but he was especially dominant versus lefties like Kershaw, hitting .356/.463/.867 against southpaws. Those numbers came in a small sample this year, but they line up with career-long trends for Ozuna, and Dodgers manager Dave Roberts will want to be mindful of that as the NLCS continues.
Correa’s homer keeps the dream alive for Astros
At some point soon, this era of Astros baseball will end. George Springer, Michael Brantley and Josh Reddick are on the brink of free agency while Justin Verlander may not pitch for Houston again before hitting the open market in a year’s time. Change in Houston is inevitable.
But for now, the Astros remain a dangerous team, as Carlos Correa showed when he hit a walk-off home run off Nick Anderson in the bottom of the ninth inning Thursday. The home run, Correa’s sixth of the post-season, gives him more home runs than he hit in the regular season and gives the Astros life for another day.
At this point, the Astros will take wins any way they can get them, but it’s worth noting that Framber Valdez was warming up in the bullpen during the ninth inning. Had the game gone any longer, Valdez might have been forced to pitch. Instead, Correa’s homer allows Houston to save its best starter for Game 6.
You just can’t predict baseball
If any team in baseball has a deep bullpen, it’s the Rays. Kevin Cash put it best midway through the season after an altercation with the Yankees:
“I’ve got a whole damn stable of guys who throw 98 miles per hour,” he noted.
And he does. The Rays’ bullpen can be overpowering. The Astros, on the other hand, have the weakest bullpen of all the remaining playoff teams. Case in point, they turned to Josh James with their season on the line despite the fact that James walked nearly a batter per inning on his way to a 7.27 ERA this year. That’s not mismanagement by Dusty Baker, it’s a reflection of a thin bullpen.
Yet on Thursday the Astros still won. Whether they can sustain this for much longer is another question, but then again Houston doesn’t have to do this for long. Two more wins and they’re past the Rays and into the World Series.
