As the great philosopher Sean “Jay-Z” Carter famously said on the Blueprint 3, “men lie, women lie, numbers don’t.” When it comes to prognosticating and evaluating the NFL, a few key numbers tell a greater story.
Whether it’s your wagers, survivor pool, fantasy choices or bragging rights at your NFL watch party and group chats, I’ll provide those numbers on a weekly basis in this space. Here are 10 stats that will tell the story for Week 14 in the NFL.
1. Year of the backup QB
If Trevor Lawrence can’t play on Sunday, three of the seven current AFC playoff teams will start a backup QB in Week 14. That number was four before the Pittsburgh Steelers fell out of a playoff spot with a loss on Thursday night. In the entire conference, nine backup QBs in the AFC are playing. Never before have we seen so many high-profile QB injuries and teams staying competitive despite it. Which makes what’s going on with the New York Jets even more disparaging.
2. AFC South race heating up
The AFC South playoff race is heating up and it should remain exciting as all three teams vying for first in the division have a favourable road to the post-season. The Jacksonville Jaguars are in first place with an 8-4 record and have the 10th-easiest remaining schedule. The Indianapolis Colts are 7-5 with the sixth-easiest schedule. The Houston Texans are 7-5 with the third-easiest schedule. Jacksonville has to manage the injury to Lawrence to stay competitive but working in its favour is the fact it has won both games versus Indianapolis and spilt versus Houston.
3. Turnaround comes down to turnovers for Buffalo
The Buffalo Bills are on the outside looking in when it comes to the AFC playoff race. For them to make a run, quarterback Josh Allen will have to continue to put up big numbers but also start to eliminate turnovers. Allen has thrown an interception in eight straight games, the longest streak by any quarterback in a season since Case Keenum did it in 2018.
4. Chase chasing history
Ja’Marr Chase of the Bengals put up his sixth career game with 10 receptions, 100 yards and a receiving touchdown. In NFL history, that’s the most by a player in his first three seasons.
5. MVP to incomplete
Lamar Jackson was the runaway favourite for league MVP halfway through the season. But he’s recently fallen on hard times throwing the ball. In the first eight games, his 73 per cent completion rate was first in the NFL. Over the last three games, his 58 per cent completion percentage is 28th in the NFL. If the Baltimore Ravens are going to find their way back to the one seed, they’ll have to find a way to get their passing game back on track. It won’t be easy in the immediate future. The Ravens’ next opponent is the Los Angeles Rams, who have a defence with the sixth-lowest completion percentage allowed, at 62 per cent.
6. Dak for MVP?
Jackson has fallen out of the MVP conversation and Dak Prescott has catapulted right in it. Prescott has an 80 total QBR since Week 6, which leads the NFL. He is the only QB with more than 69 in that span. Prescott is heating up down the stretch. He’s rattled off six straight games with multiple TD passes, which is the third longest streak in Dallas Cowboys history.
7. Brandin is cooking
You can’t trace Prescott’s improvement to his ability to get on the same page without Brandin Cooks. Cooks has 20 receptions, 332 yards and three TDs in the last four games. That’s more production then Cooks had from Weeks 1-9 combined.
8. Tyreke is a one-man team
If the MVP isn’t going to be a QB, it might be Tyreke Hill. How good has Hill been? He has more receiving yards and TDs than entire franchises. Hill has 1,481 yards receiving and 12 receiving TDs. That’s more than the Arizona Cardinals (1,412 receiving yards and eight TDs), New York Giants (1,327 receiving yards and five TDs), New York Jets (1,253 receiving yards and four TDs) and Atlanta Falcons (1,155 receiving yards and four TDs). Hill has eight games with 100-plus receiving yards, which is the most in the NFL. He predicted it and now 2,000 receiving yards is in play.
9. Russ no longer cooking
Instead of letting Russ cook, the Broncos have had to resort to letting Russ order out. Russell Wilson has the most starts this season with fewer than 200 pass yards with eight, ahead of Bryce Young with seven and Kenny Pickett with six. Wilson is averaging just 198.8 yards per game this season, ranking him 20th in the NFL. The Los Angeles Chargers defence is allowing 266 pass yards per game, second most in the NFL
10. Is Flacco the Browns’ best?
A sure-fire way to judge the proficiency of a quarterback is by yards per play and third-down conversion percentage. How well do you move your team down the field and how well do you stay on the field on third down? Well, based on the available evidence, the Cleveland Browns’ best QB might be their newest, Joe Flacco. In his first start, Flacco put up an impressive 4.7 yards per play and 44 per cent conversion rate on third down. P.J. Walker registered 4.2 yards per play and a 24 per cent conversion rate on third down; Dorian Thompson-Robinson has had just 3.6 yards per play, 22 per cent conversion rate. Lastly, Deshaun Watson had 5.1 yards per play and 39 per cent conversion on third down. The Browns are on their fourth starting QB, but that number suggests that by no means disqualifies them from being able to compete.
11. Young Pack attack
The Green Bay Packers boast the youngest skill players in the NFL at 25.3 years old, but they’ve grown up at the right time, led by first-year full-time starter Jordan Love. In his last three games, Love has been on fire, throwing for 857 yards, eight TDs, zero interceptions with a 3-0 record. Expand the sample to four games and he’s got four straight with multiple passing TDs. Don’t look now, but Green Bay has the easiest remaining schedule in the league. Their opponents have lost as many games than they have won, with a 20-40 record. Love’s play and the watered-down competition has Green Bay favoured to win each of its final five games.
