EDMONTON — Can an analytics bubble burst in just one shot?
Does every 1,000-mile journey in positive regression — even one as confounding as the one the Edmonton Oilers were hoping for — begin with but a single goal?
Can 21 games of awesome analytics but so-so results change in one Vasily Podkolzin snapper, the very first of his 48 shot attempts as an Edmonton Oiler to both elude a goaltender and hit the net at the same time?
“It takes much longer than I thought,” said Podkolzin, 23, the charismatic young Russian who has clung to a top-six role here despite (now) having just one goal this season. “Sometimes God gives you a little bit of challenges for the life, and for being a better hockey player or better person.”
The Big Guy has challenged this entire team, a would-be Stanley Cup favourite that stumbled through the opening quarter of the season with a whack of players whose production is nowhere close to what it has been in past seasons.
On Saturday, with six goals on 40 shots, they can only hope the regression has begun.
“Hopefully the results will come for him and for all of us in here,” said Leon Draisaitl, who has been magnificent this season, with 14 of his 16 goals coming at even strength. “I think analytics tell a little bit of a story, but if you are not capitalizing on your looks, analytics are no good. Hopefully this opens the floodgates a little more consistently for us.”
Well, stay tuned folks. Because the worm turned significantly for the Oilers Saturday in a 6-2 win over the New York Rangers, if only for one night in a row.
The Oilers have been analytics darlings through the opening quarter of the season, but entered game No. 22 with a pedestrian 10-9-2 record, and an overall level of play best described in one word: “Meh.”
Edmonton ranks top six in several key offensive metrics (expected goals, slot shots, etc.) but just 20th in actual goals scored. It’s the same with defensive metrics, yet they slot in at 18th in goals allowed.
They’ve outshot their opponents 377-280 at home, but been outscored 38-25 — the second worst goals differential in the NHL at home. They’re tops in the NHL in shots on goal, second in shot attempts, but 30th in shooting percentage and 20th in goals per game (2.76).
But it turned somewhat on Saturday when, with just 2:26 left in a period where Edmonton would outshoot New York 21-9, Podkolzin zipped a one-timer over Jonathan Quick’s left shoulder.
From there, the mathematical tumblers just continued to fall:
Evan Bouchard has always been known for getting shots through to the net, but also sighting shots to within a couple inches of the iron. But this year, he leads the league in having his shots blocked.
Weird, right?
On Saturday, he rifled one past the defenders just under the crossbar on Quick, a welcome blast from the past. In between, Darnell Nurse cashed in on a shorthanded chance, and Draisaitl converted on a two-on-one with McDavid.
Suddenly, the team with the third-worst shooting percentage in the entire National Hockey League (6.76 per cent) was packing the net with pucks, scoring six on 40 shots.
“The last five games, in three of them we’ve scored four or more goals,” said head coach Kris Knoblauch. “And we did it against a goalie that has been playing extremely well.”
Podkolzin becomes a metaphor for what has ailed Edmonton, a kid who is trying his butt off but hasn’t been able to bury a snipe.
Knoblauch has stuck with him in his top six — preferred ahead of the veteran Jeff Skinner — as much because the coach likes the player, and his top two centremen have adopted Podkolzin as a project worth working on.
“(Draisaitl) tells me, after almost every game, ‘Keep going. Everything is good. Work hard, and this stuff will come,’” Podkolzin said. “Finally, I scored. And I’m going to score more.”
If Draisaitl didn’t want Podkolzin on his wing, the kid would have been redeployed long ago. But the veteran sees something in a younger Euro who is routinely seen on the ice 25 minutes before practice, working on his craft.
“You notice as a player, you see it,” Draisaitl said. “He is just a fantastic teammate. He has done nothing but impress everybody in the room. He works extremely hard and tries to get better.
“Regardless of playing in our top six for a long time now, and playing really good hockey there, he is still out there early working on his game. I’m extremely impressed by him.”
So now we’ll see if the second quarter can be as kind to these Oilers as the first one was cruel.
Or, if the analytics are “no good,” as Draisaitl said.
