Well, we officially have a series on our hands now.
Carlos Correa‘s walk-off home run in the bottom of the ninth of Game 5 ensured the Houston Astros lived to fight another day, cutting their ALCS deficit to 3-2. Now the pressure starts to shift to the Tampa Bay Rays, who will look to quell Houston’s momentum and stomp out any ideas of a Game 7.
Tampa manager Kevin Cash turns to Blake Snell on normal rest in Game 6, and it’s time for the left-hander to be the ace his team needs him to be. The stakes are clear as day: A win punches the Rays’ ticket to the World Series, while a loss results in a do-or-die Game 7 on Saturday.
Snell got the nod in Game 1 of this series and held the Astros to one run over five innings, despite giving up six hits and a pair of walks while only striking out two batters. He deserves credit for limiting the damage, but he gave up plenty of hard contact.
In total, six balls left Astros bats at 95 m.p.h. or faster, with eight batted balls carrying expected batting averages of .500 or better. It’s worth noting that five Astros regulars have batting averages north of .300 against Snell (minimum 10 plate appearances), with Michael Brantley (.455), Alex Bregman (.412) and Jose Altuve (.389) leading the way. Now those hitters get a second crack at him just five days later.
The 27-year-old has had trouble working deep into ball games, and hasn’t completed six innings in any of his starts in 2020. That isn’t the end of the world for a team as loaded in the bullpen as the Rays, but length from a starter becomes increasingly valuable in a series with no off days.
If Snell can give Cash those five-plus solid innings on Friday, the Rays will be in prime position. High-leverage relievers Diego Castillo and Pete Fairbanks haven’t worked since Game 3, so they’ll be well-rested and should be available for multiple innings out of the bullpen. Top reliever Nick Anderson took the loss in Game 5 after tossing 1.1 frames, so his status for Friday is in question. Anderson hasn’t been his dominant self during these playoffs, pitching to a 7.71 ERA in October following a ridiculous 0.55 mark in the regular season.
If any team can successfully piece together innings it’s the Rays and their “stable of guys who throw 98,” but the more relievers you send out on any given night, the greater the chance one doesn’t have his best stuff and gets tagged for some back-breaking runs
While pitching is undoubtedly crucial at this time of year, you still can’t win without scoring and the Rays can take one huge positive away from Game 5 offensively. Despite the loss, second baseman Brandon Lowe broke out of a 3-for-39 post-season slump with a solo home run. The 2019 all-star carried the offensive load for Tampa all season, posting a .916 OPS. Up until Game 5, he had been a ghost during the playoffs.
Getting Lowe’s bat going is key for the Rays if they hope to win the World Series. He spends most of his time in the two-spot in the batting order, which is always where you want to position your best hitter, but it’s taken on even greater importance since he’s primarily been hitting in front of the red-hot Randy Arozarena. If Lowe can get on base consistently ahead of the new Mr. October, Tampa’s offence would hit a new level and alleviate some of the pressure on the pitching staff.
So the stage is set. The Astros have all the momentum but the pressure is still mostly on them with their season on the line. Another Houston victory and it’ll be a completely different story on Saturday. Hearing the words “Game 7” is a sports fan’s dream but that would be an absolute nightmare for the Rays, who could become just the second team in MLB history to squander a 3-0 series lead.
Snell needs to be the ace of the staff on Friday and ensure that outcome isn’t even a possibility.
