Four days remain in the NHL regular season. The playoffs are six days away.
And we’re almost ready to lock in Round 1 matchups.
The East’s top eight teams have been set for some time and that group accomplished an NHL first last week. When the Washington Capitals reached 100 points, it was the first time in league history that all eight playoff teams from one conference hit that total. There will be no soft touches in the Group Of Death.
The West is nearly there, too, with the Canucks not quite mathematically eliminated, but not really in the picture anymore. The Vegas Golden Knights are the only team on the outside looking in that has a legitimate shot to qualify, but that could all vanish by Wednesday morning.
Here’s our last look at the playoff picture before the post-season arrives…
EASTERN CONFERENCE
If the playoffs started today, these would be our Eastern Conference first-round matchups:
(A1) Panthers vs. (WC2) Capitals
(A2) Maple Leafs vs. (A3) Lightning
(M1) Hurricanes vs. (WC1) Bruins
(M2) Rangers vs. (M3) Penguins
Can the Maple Leafs clinch home ice?
Since October this has been framed as a make-or-break season for these Maple Leafs. This is now Year 6 of the Auston Matthews-Mitch Marner-William Nylander core and they’re still looking for their first playoff series win. All of their top players have blossomed into veterans, this is the best blue line the team has had and the goaltending seems to be recovering to a place where it won’t lose them games.
Get eliminated in Round 1 this time and could we see the GM replaced? Any of the core moved? All bets, it seemed, would be off in that scenario.
Of course, now we’re staring down the barrel of a Toronto-Tampa Bay series in Round 1 and that might be the worst draw you could hope for if you’re a Leafs fan. The back-to-back champs were seen as a little sleepy for a time and that maybe all these games they’ve played were finally catching up to them. Then they won three in a row against Toronto, Nashville, and Florida over the weekend, scoring 22 goals. They’re a scary opponent for anyone.
The Leafs will need any help they can get, so locking in home-ice advantage this week could be an important one — they can do that by just getting one point Tuesday against Detroit since they’ll have the tiebreaker on their side. If they don’t wrap up second place on Tuesday, they’ll have a chance to do it against Boston on Friday.
For Tampa to pass the Leafs, they’ll need Toronto to lose both of those games in regulation, and then the Lightning will need to win all three of its games this week against Columbus (x2) and the NY Islanders.
Of course, there is still a chance for the Lightning to fall out of the third seed and for the Bruins to slide up into a Round 1 matchup with the Maple Leafs. But three points separate Tampa and Boston with just one week left, so that’s a tough climb for the Bruins.
Will the Capitals catch the Penguins and move out of the wild card?
The past month has been a concerning one for the Pittsburgh Penguins. They’re 6-8-1 in that time (though outscored opponents 53-48). They’ve lost their starting goalie, Tristan Jarry, who is week-to-week with a broken bone in his foot. And in that same time the Washington Capitals have been one of the NHL’s hottest outfits, boasting a 9-3-2 record. Washington has made up seven points on Pittsburgh.
One month ago you would never have thought the Capitals would have a shot to move out of the wild card, but here we are. With a couple of games against the Islanders and one against the Rangers, Washington won’t have an easy finish here, but they do have a game in hand on the Penguins and trail them by only one point. The Caps are third in the division by points percentage.
On the season, the Penguins have been a pretty good defensive unit. At 5-on-5 they are fourth-best by expected goals against per 60 and sixth-best by high danger opportunities against. In the past month, they’ve slipped to 11th and 16th, respectively, in both of those rates. The Pens have been outshot and chanced, which is not the sort of trend you want to see heading into the post-season.
The big question facing Pittsburgh will be if Casey DeSmith can (and needs to be) an effective No. 1 come playoff time. It was subpar goaltending from Jarry that killed the Penguins in last year’s playoffs, but he followed up with a career year in 2021-22 and seemed to alleviate the concern that last year’s result would be repeated.
Now they’re back to a less-proven DeSmith, who it should be noted has a .944 save percentage this month and a .915 on the season. He’s 21st out of 70 NHL goalies this season in Goals Saved Above Average. Now he needs a strong finish.
A third-place finish in the Metro means a likely Round 1 date with the New York Rangers, which is not much of a silver lining. A wild-card finish means facing Florida or Carolina in Round 1. The Panthers might be a popular upset pick for those looking to make one (and might have the curse of the Presidents’ Trophy on them) and the Hurricanes … well …
Who will start Game 1 for the Hurricanes?
We still await official word on Frederik Andersen’s timeline for a return to action, but Carolina at least seemed to get some good news on Monday. Antti Raanta, who had to leave Sunday’s game versus the Islanders, is in line to return Tuesday against the Rangers, but will back up Pyotr Kochetkov.
This game still means something, as the Hurricanes can clinch first place in the Metro and home-ice through at least the first two rounds with a point. The Rangers are still eyeing a takeover and a chance to meet a wild-card opponent in Round 1.
The Hurricanes, by any measure, are once again a top contender for the Stanley Cup, but the goaltending has certainly given them a scare in the past two weeks. If Andersen, a top-five performer at the position this season, can’t return, it’ll all be on Raanta and his five games of playoff experience. And if something happens to Raanta, the duty goes to 22-year-old Kochetkov who has played two NHL games.
Raanta, in 27 games this season, has a .913 save percentage and the 28th-ranked GSAA in the league. He has had bouts of inconsistency this season though, and so to lean on him for a prolonged period could be risky.
And while the official nature of Andersen’s situation has not been announced, there seemed to be some light there, too: Sara Civian of The Athletic reported that “things are looking optimistic” that Andersen will be ready to go for Game 1 of the playoffs. Keep an eye on Andersen, who may be the key to Carolina’s post-season expectations finally coming to fruition.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
If the playoffs started today, these would be our Western Conference first-round matchups:
(C1) Avalanche vs. (WC2) Stars
(C2) Wild vs. (C3) Blues
(P1) Flames vs. (WC1) Predators
(P2) Oilers vs. (P3) Kings
How will the dramatic regular season wrap up for Vegas?
What on Earth happened to the Golden Knights this season?
Injuries piled up. They made the biggest trade of the season in acquiring Jack Eichel, who didn’t even suit up for them until three months later when he returned from injury. But even as the Golden Knights started getting key players back healthy, the wins didn’t start rolling as easily or as often as expected.
Has the magic run out?
Consider Sunday’s loss to the San Jose Sharks. With just over two minutes left in regulation, the Golden Knights had a two-goal lead and were outshooting the Sharks 40-25. Nick Bonino scored on a weak shot from out far to cut the lead to one.
Still, Vegas held a one-goal lead on home ice. For all their foibles through this season, they weren’t a team that was blowing a lot of its leads. Going into the Sharks game, Vegas had a 31-2 record when leading after two periods, a top-eight points percentage in those friendly situations. And they almost got through this one, too.
In the dying seconds, the Sharks were putting pressure on with six skaters, but Vegas managed to have control of the puck in the corner with five seconds on the clock. A failed clearing attempt up the boards turned into a horribly unlucky goal, and overtime.
Oh, but it gets worse.
Vegas managed to get a power play in the last minute-and-a-half of OT that failed to come through and so it went to a shootout. And after Nicolas Roy, Logan Couture, Jack Eichel, Timo Meier, and Shea Theodore couldn’t score, the game ended off the stick of unlikely source: five-game rookie Thomas Bordeleau.
This result — and the way it happened — really encapsulated Vegas’ season: expected success gives way to unfathomable letdown.
And so on Tuesday the Golden Knights walk into the biggest regular season game of their existence. They’ll face Dallas, the very team they have the best shot at catching for the second wild card spot. Three points back and with three games remaining, a regulation loss for Vegas will end their season; an extra time loss puts them on the very edge of elimination.
It’s as must-win as it gets for the Golden Knights, and it comes amidst the latest bit of drama. While reports surfaced at the end of last week that Robin Lehner would get surgery and end his season, coach Pete DeBoer immediately denied that and then Lehner was on the bench as the backup on Sunday.
On Monday, the team announced Lehner was … getting surgery and his season over. The reason for why he was on the bench Sunday was for cap reasons. Not a good look.
The focus in net is now squarely on Logan Thompson, a 25-year-old with 17 NHL appearances who spent most of this season in the AHL. But he has put up some pretty good numbers in his NHL looks (9-5-1, .917 save percentage) and is 6-1-1 in his past eight appearances.
But of course it should be note that for all the focus on goaltending, Vegas’ all-out effort to acquire stars needs to pay off now. There is not a point-per-game player in the lineup and in the past month it’s been a lot of the old guard leading the way on offence (Shea Theodore, Jonathan Marchessault, Chandler Stephenson, William Karlsson). Mark Stone doesn’t have a point in six games since returning from a back injury and doesn’t seem himself.
Can Vegas pull through, or will this story finish as one heck of a shock to the system and some real summer soul-searching?
Is Calgary Canada’s best Stanley Cup hope?
Not many had the Calgary Flames down as a 108-plus point team this season. Not many had Johnny Gaudreau down as a Hart Trophy candidate, or Matthew Tkachuk as a 100-point player. The Flames have changed the way they’re perceived this season.
And now we wonder if they are the best hope for a Canadian Stanley Cup winner since 1993.
Not only do the Flames look like an elite contender by their record and the style they play (strong transition team that can up its physical game, too), but by any measure they stack up with the best in the league.
Comparing them to just the two other Canadian teams in the playoffs, here is how the Flames look.
If you think the Leafs are Canada’s best hope you certainly have a good case (they have the best blue line they’ve ever had and undeniable talent), but Toronto has a much more difficult road through at least one, if not both of the first two rounds. Tampa Bay and Boston loom.
Calgary has to get through a wild card central team and then the Pacific Division winner between Los Angeles and Edmonton. It’s no slam dunk to be sure, but the opportunity is there for them to seize it. On paper, they outmatch all opponents they could face in the first two rounds.
And they’re finishing strong. Even as the Oilers have caught fire and clamped down on defence, the Flames are still creating space in the standings. Since Jay Woodcroft took over behind Edmonton’s bench, the Oilers have a .700 points percentage — fourth-best in the league. Calgary has a .750 points percentage in that time, and second-best in the league.
We should all be crossing our fingers and hoping for a Battle of Alberta in Round 2 that would be must-see action. We haven’t had a post-season Alberta matchup since 1991. We’re overdue.
Can the Oilers hold off the Kings for home-ice advantage in Round 1?
Speaking of the Oilers, they can clinch second place in the Pacific Division and home-ice advantage in Round 1 with a win, in any fashion, against the Penguins Tuesday night. The Kings, who are idle tonight, will clinch a first-round matchup with the Oilers if Vegas loses, in any fashion, to the Stars.
If the Oilers don’t lock up second tonight, they will have a two-point lead on the Kings with two games remaining for both teams. Edmonton will also have the tiebreaker.
In those last two games, the Oilers will meet San Jose and Vancouver, while the Kings meet Seattle and Vancouver.
